Yale 6400 door contact on shed door

You are painting a scenario where the ambient temp is a constant.
This is not the case even in a cold winter the temperature during the day can reach above freezing and then drop sharply at night.

Yes given a suitable length of time everything will equalise but the heat loss of the sensor will be slowed by the insulation.

The fact that the sensor is inside a shed will impact on the potential of the sensor to ever reach -10.

It may be -10 outside in the garden but you can bet it will be warmer in the shed.
 
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Strangely I have a garage - and it is totally unheated and yet in the winter nothing inside it freezes - how bizzare. Its not heated and yet if you go inside the ambient temp within is higher than outside when it's cold and yet it is not and has never has been heated. Strange that.
Of course with your logic it should be the same temperature inside as it is outside because there is no source of heat.
In the winter I put a sheet of plastic on my car windscreen. It is not hot heated plastic and my car may not have been driven and yet strangely it stops the windscreen from freezing???

The plastic sheet on your windscreen prevents water particles falling onto it. If there is no water present it will not freeze. However, you take the same piece of plastic sheet, spray water on to both sides and put it on your windscreen on a night when the temperature is below freezing and you will find the sheet will have frozen to your screen!
 
the battery might not work at extreme temperatures.

Unlike a garage, a typical shed has no large mass (such as a concrete floor or brick walls) to act as a heat sink and slow down temperature fluctuations.
 

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