2. In the event of a 'leave' vote, the following will take place;
Assuming that the government even allows a referendum in the first place, what's the betting that a "leave" vote would be followed by referendum after referendum, with increasing amounts of money being spent on pro-EU propaganda each time, until the British public gives the "correct" answer? Then, of course, they would say that "the people have spoken" and there's no need for any further debate about membership of the EU.
But if they ever did come to their senses and decide to withdraw:
(a) there will have to be lengthy negotiations on leaving arrangements;
I fear that would be the result, even though as far as U.K. law is concerned it's very simple - Repeal the relevant acts and the U.K. is out, whether the EU likes it or not, so from that point of view there's nothing to negotiate.
But that in itself raises worrying issues about the way the EU "bigwigs" believe this "club" should be. I didn't follow all the ramblings much during my last couple of years in England, nor now that I'm in the U.S., but certainly a few years ago the EU bureaucrats were talking about establishing rules for if a member country did ever want to leave.
Their ideas were that the country concerned would have to wait for some period (I forget how long, a few years), and during that time would still be obliged to abide by all EU Directives, pay into the EU, but have no say in EU matters and receive no benefits. Bad enough? Yes, but they wanted it established that even to get to that stage the country concerned would be "permitted" to leave only if every other member country agreed first.
That shows a total disregard for the sovereignty of individual nations and is a worrying indication of their true motives and aims. If they ever did agree upon such rules, just what exactly would they do if the U.K. - as it has every right to do under U.K. law - just said "We're out" and refused to go along with their rules?
Unfortunately, the way the EU seems to be headed, in a few more decades I can see it turning into the same sort of struggle as happened with the break-up of the old Soviet Union, hence my earlier comment about the U.K. withdrawing while it can still be done peaceably. In another 20 years or so, the only way out might be by force.
