Covid-19 discussion

festive · 1 Apr 2020

Been bugging me this lately there's been no detail about quantification, dose etc, how much is a dose of Covid19 before you succumb? The technical term being 'viral load'

Going to have more of a read here today and post back anything else of interest please chip in too.
Reading this article below discusses this term as it seems among other factors (age, immune response,underlying health issues) it also depends how much you're exposed or viral load, which potentially governs how you may be affected.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-cov-2-viral-load-and-the-severity-of-covid-19/

IT Minion · 1 Apr 2020

As I understand it there's two elements. If your immune system identifies it as a threat early then it can start to fight it off. Once only a very small number of the viruses enter your system they start to multiply. A smaller dose means your immune system has more time to identify it and ramp up the response before you're 50% virus by weight. (Exaggeration will be used throughout).

The dangerous bit about the virus is how your immune system can overreact, causing your lungs to flood (pneumonia). I have no idea how that relates to the amount of virus floating about in your blood.

Notch7 · 1 Apr 2020

just an aside to this thread: it seems an early symptom of CV is a loss of taste and smell.

IT Minion · 1 Apr 2020

Notch7 said:
just an aside to this thread: it seems an early symptom of CV is a loss of taste and smell.

Does that include the temptation to slob around the house in paint stained tracksuit bottoms? If so I'm in trouble.

ajohn · 1 Apr 2020

Notch7 said:
just an aside to this thread: it seems an early symptom of CV is a loss of taste and smell.

A can be and only a few people.

I heard a comment of 500 viral particles followed by we don't really know but it definitely is highly contagious.

festive · 1 Apr 2020

IT Minion said:
The dangerous bit about the virus is how your immune system can overreact, causing your lungs to flood (pneumonia). I have no idea how that relates to the amount of virus floating about in your blood.

Indeed i believe the term used here is Cytokine storm which is close to curtains.

conny · 1 Apr 2020

Here's an interesting article in The Spectator.

I've been saying something similar for a few weeks now. People are being classed as dying from Coid-19 when, in actual fact, they have tested positive for Covid but have an underlying condition which they would probably have died from anyway.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...IyrH89qh2I-t2O3s3Khyk6ifhSC5gYjtDM476rp9cMQq4

Read the article above in conjunction with the graph in this link, (from Imperial College London not something someone drew up and posted on FB), and you can see that Covid is not actually increasing the expected death rate, merely being used as the cause instead of the true cause being recorded and adding that they also had the virus.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=3354784131202994&set=p.3354784131202994&type=3&theater

I've come close to banging my head against a brick wall trying to explain tosome people that, yes, Tom/Dick/Harry had Covid and died. But Tom/Dick/Harry also had COPD for the past 15 years and was not expected to live this long! It was the COPD which he died of even though he had the virus.

sodthisforfun · 1 Apr 2020

But there is without doubt that the covid has accelerated those deaths - we don't know how long people would've lived with these other illnesses - perhaps months, perhaps years and years. 13 year old kid yesterday? The 19 year old kid, seemingly healthy doesn't make me think they'd have died any time soon without having the virus.
I think to dismiss the part covid is playing/causing these deaths is not helpful.

Alec_t · 1 Apr 2020

festive said:
how much is a dose of Covid19 before you succumb? The technical term being 'viral load'

According to The Hitch-hiker's Guide the answer should be 42 virions.

EFLImpudence · 1 Apr 2020

You could say the same about a road accident.

He died from being decapitated by a lorry but had COPD so it wasn't the decapitation that killed him.

conny · 1 Apr 2020

sodthisforfun said:
But there is without doubt that the covid has accelerated those deaths - we don't know how long people would've lived with these other illnesses - perhaps months, perhaps years and years. 13 year old kid yesterday? The 19 year old kid, seemingly healthy doesn't make me think they'd have died any time soon without having the virus.
I think to dismiss the part covid is playing/causing these deaths is not helpful.

But stop crediting Covid as being the primary cause. I don't deny it MAY have played a part in some cases, but now anyone who goes to hospital/admitted to hospital is tested.
You can have the virus and it isn't doing you any harm, but if you have an underlying condition, (lets use heart disease as an easy example), and are admitted to hospital with chest pains which results in you having a heart attack from which you don't recover, the cause of death will be recorded as a Covid death. But the Covid may not have played any part in your death! Your heart attack may have been so severe that nothing would have saved you. If Covid had played a part in your demise but was not the primary cause then the primary cause should be put on the certificate with the addition of something like, 'complicated with Covid-19 virus' or some similar wording.
This way we get a truer reading of how many deaths are attributable solely to the virus.

conny · 1 Apr 2020

EFLImpudence said:
You could say the same about a road accident.

He died from being decapitated by a lorry but had COPD so it wasn't the decapitation that killed him.

Now that's talking ridiculous.

EFLImpudence · 1 Apr 2020

I note that the number of deaths from covid (~2,000) has just passed the annual death toll of road traffic accidents and, coincidentally, the total number of cases of covid is about the same as the annual number of serious injuries (~29,000) from RTAs from which I assume people never fully recover.

I appreciate covid hasn't ended yet.

Also, I note that, according to the tables, the UK has not had a recovery from covid for about a week - still only 135.

Seems odd.

EFLImpudence · 1 Apr 2020

conny said:
Now that's talking ridiculous.

...but if you would not have died without covid then it is the primary cause, or...

...perhaps the deaths are recorded as you think they should be. I don't know.

sodthisforfun · 1 Apr 2020

conny said:
But stop crediting Covid as being the primary cause. I don't deny it MAY have played a part in some cases, but now anyone who goes to hospital/admitted to hospital is tested.
You can have the virus and it isn't doing you any harm, but if you have an underlying condition, (lets use heart disease as an easy example), and are admitted to hospital with chest pains which results in you having a heart attack from which you don't recover, the cause of death will be recorded as a Covid death. But the Covid may not have played any part in your death! Your heart attack may have been so severe that nothing would have saved you. If Covid had played a part in your demise but was not the primary cause then the primary cause should be put on the certificate with the addition of something like, 'complicated with Covid-19 virus' or some similar wording.
This way we get a truer reading of how many deaths are attributable solely to the virus.

We don't gain an awful lot by saying that it MAY have been part of it and in fact, it's not better to 'downplay' anything until this virus is understood completely. If covid is the thing that pushes people into an early grave then covid is to blame. We don't know how long people would've lived without catching it.

My dad officially died of pneumonia. That's what killed him and that's what's on his death certificate. However, he couldn't fight it at all because he had cancer pretty much in every part of his body and indeed, having such a low immune system due to cancer makes pneumonia more likely. Cancer was recorded as secondary. Why should the Covid virus be any different?

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