Big Numbers today

Deleted2797112 · 9 Jul 2020

Brigadier said:
You'd think the figures should be accurate; both deaths and confirmed cases are pretty solid numbers, not subject to extrapolation.

You'd think the figures in the UK should have been accurate. But they weren't. 4 devolved administrations, umpteen health boards, new testing centres, care homes, registry offices etc. etc. Scale that up to India and it's questionable whether the numbers are accurate or can be relied on to draw conclusions.

I don't think anyone is going to know definitively which countries did well or badly for a long time. Probably until after a vaccine has been made available globally and the dust has settled. It ain't over yet.

Brigadier · 9 Jul 2020

trazor said:
Average age of dying in India is 68.7 years, whilst in the UK it is 81.4 years, thus a greater percentage of the elderly to be fatally infected.

Average age of dying? Do you mean "average life expectancy"? In any case, is there actually any difference?

I stand to be corrected on this, but average life expectancy in this instance is mostly a function of infant mortality, rather than someone dropping dead at 68 (or 81).
If that is the case, there shouldn't be any effect of the UK having a greater proportion of older people.
I do however stand to be corrected on this

motorbiking · 9 Jul 2020

Brigadier said:
So, why is India doing so much better?

I've not looked in detail, but how many people are born and die in India without being registered. I found some evidence that its at least 25%. 6+ Million.

Brigadier · 9 Jul 2020

I've just checked, re: infant mortality and deaths under the age of five (per one thousand live births):

UK - 3.3, and 4.3
India - 26.6, and 32.9

I think I am correct in saying then, that at least some of India's lower average life expectancy is due to much poorer infant survival rates.

Brigadier · 9 Jul 2020

motorbiking said:
I've not looked in detail, but how many people are born and die in India without being registered. I found some evidence that its at least 25%. 6+ Million.

In that case, they shouldn't show up in the cases and deaths-from-Covid figures, should they?

Trazor · 9 Jul 2020

Brigadier said:
Average age of dying? Do you mean "average life expectancy"? In any case, is there actually any difference?

I stand to be corrected on this, but average life expectancy in this instance is mostly a function of infant mortality, rather than someone dropping dead at 68 (or 81).
If that is the case, there shouldn't be any effect of the UK having a greater proportion of older people.
I do however stand to be corrected on this

I follow your point.

But I believe our Health system is so good, it keeps people alive much longer than they otherwise would survive.
Thus making them prime targets eventually, for such Pandemics.

Notch7 · 9 Jul 2020

trazor said:
But I believe our Health system is so good, it keeps people alive much longer than they otherwise would survive.
Thus making them prime targets eventually, for such Pandemics

thats true, what counts is quality of life.

there are lots of people that live perfectly good lives but have a severely reduced immunity- a fair few of those have died early due to Covid.

Clearly people in care homes are mostly close to the end of their lives, some of those, maybe many still have a good quality of life.

Brigadier · 9 Jul 2020

trazor said:
I follow your point.

But I believe our Health system is so good, it keeps people alive much longer than they otherwise would survive.
Thus making them prime targets eventually, for such Pandemics.

Is it that our older people are in poorer health than those of India, then?

Trazor · 9 Jul 2020

Brigadier said:
Is it that our older people are in poorer health than those of India, then?

No, we have a great health system, that keeps people alive longer than they would normally live for.

As Covid-19 is age specific, this group of people are prime targets for the Virus, irrespective of their general health.

Deleted2797112 · 9 Jul 2020

Brigadier said:
Is it that our older people are in poorer health than those of India, then?

Don't know about India but healthy and disability-free life expectancy in the UK are not rising at the same rate as general life expectancy so people are living longer in 'not good health'.

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/public...Ch05GgWvEAAYASAAEgJ6FfD_BwE#footnote1_ywwcrym

IT Minion · 9 Jul 2020

Brigadier said:
Average age of dying? Do you mean "average life expectancy"? In any case, is there actually any difference?

I stand to be corrected on this, but average life expectancy in this instance is mostly a function of infant mortality, rather than someone dropping dead at 68 (or 81).
If that is the case, there shouldn't be any effect of the UK having a greater proportion of older people.
I do however stand to be corrected on this

I believe they are different, in two ways. Average age of death is always a retrospective number. Imagine that everyone now alive will suddenly live another hundred years. The life expectancy goes up by 100, average age of death stays the same.

But more on topic, life expectancy calculations tend to have a baseline of a certain age, so early infant mortality doesn't distort them too much. They're also calculated for different age ranges and other groupings.

motorbiking · 9 Jul 2020

Brigadier said:
I've just checked, re: infant mortality and deaths under the age of five (per one thousand live births):

UK - 3.3, and 4.3
India - 26.6, and 32.9

I think I am correct in saying then, that at least some of India's lower average life expectancy is due to much poorer infant survival rates.

You need to analyse the distribution before being able to conclude that.

motorbiking · 10 Jul 2020

I'm still not sure about the recording of non-hospital deaths in other countries. I know there have been studies showing comparisons, but they all had big dollops of caveat which made them fairly pointless. If you look at England only. We are a population the size of italy and have had 29k Covid hospital deaths. I would personally draw inference from community deaths that a person had other issues. Otherwise, I'd have expected them to be taken to hospital?

I really don't think you can compare countries without "free" healthcare systems and strict registration controls. Its highly likely people are dying unrecorded.

durhamplumber · 10 Jul 2020

trazor said:
No, we have a great health system, that keeps people alive longer than they would normally live for.

Is that a cloaked criticism? You think people should be just left to die of whatever injury or illness they end up with?

durhamplumber · 10 Jul 2020

trazor said:
As Covid-19 is age specific

Not entirely,too many unknowns about it still...

Big Numbers today

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