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Match as in no statisitical significance apart from for Blacks and Mixed race.
Stop and Search powers to be made permanent
- Thread starter SirGalahad
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Match as in no statisitical significance apart from for Blacks and Mixed race.
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Isn't that the point of what is being discussed?
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Not exactly. I don't have any concern with stop and search where there is suspicion.
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C
Captain Nemesis
You seem to be struggling with numbers
Forget the % of the population - thats relevant to the proportionality or otherwise of S&S. Just consider the number of people stopped.
The numbers of people stopped in each group are absolute. Irrespective of how much of the population is in each group, 59% of those stopped were white, 22% black and so on.
If the propensity for those stopped to be found to be arrestable was the same in each group one would expect 59% of those arrested to be white, 22% to be black, and so on.
But they arent. A far higher, by a factor of nearly 3, proportion of white people ended up being arrested than black.
Try a worked example - it doesnt matter if the absolute numbers are real, as the comparisons between %ges will still work.
Lets assume that there were 1 million S&Ss, and out of those there were 100,000 arrests.
No of whites stopped 590,000 (59% of 1,000,000)
No of blacks stopped 220,000 (22% of 1,000,000)
No of whites arrested 78,000 (78% of 100,000)
No of blacks arrested 10,000 (10% of 100,000)
White: 590,000 stopped, 78,000 arrested, i.e. 13.22% of those stopped.
Black: 220,000 stopped, 10,000 arrested, i.e. 4.55% of those stopped.
13.22 ÷ 4.55 = 2.91.
Yes, but you are using the wrong numbers leading to an invalid result -
it is not the proportion of arrests to S&Ss that is the relevant figure
especially as the S&Ss are claimed to disproportionately pick on black people; seemingly borne out by the figures of 3.3% of the population with 22% of the S&Ss.
It is the number of arrests to population.
78,000 of 58,000,000 is 0.13% and
10,000 of 2,244,000 is 0.45%; so ~3.5 times higher.
Wouldn't that mean whites are 77 times as likely to be arrested?
There aren't enough black people for it still to be only three times.
it is not the proportion of arrests to S&Ss that is the relevant figure
especially as the S&Ss are claimed to disproportionately pick on black people; seemingly borne out by the figures of 3.3% of the population with 22% of the S&Ss.
It is the number of arrests to population.
78,000 of 58,000,000 is 0.13% and
10,000 of 2,244,000 is 0.45%; so ~3.5 times higher.
Imagine if everyone in the country was stopped; do you really think that the number of white arrests would still be 13.22%; i.e. ~7,700,000 and black arrests still 4.55%; i.e. ~100,000?
Wouldn't that mean whites are 77 times as likely to be arrested?
There aren't enough black people for it still to be only three times.
C
Captain Nemesis
Im using the numbers from that chart.
So unless the numbers it shows are wrong, it is impossible for me to be using wrong numbers.
The result may not be what you would like, but you cannot argue with the arithmetic unless you want to be seen advancing an argument which is just as correct as the world is flat or the sky is green
Not relevant to what? To the proportion of people who were stopped and then arrested as a result? Of course it is relevant - how can it not be relevant when it is precisely the proportion of people who were stopped and then arrested as a result that Im examining.
That is a separate issue, and not what I am looking at.
Thats about the disproportionality of who is stopped.
Which is a separate issue, and not what I am looking at.
What I am looking at is the percentages of those who were stopped who were then arrested.
In 2018 there were X stops and Y arrests.
We know from that chart that of the X stops, 59% were of whites, 22% were of blacks, and so on.
We know from that chart that of the Y arrests, 78% were of whites, 10% were of blacks, and so on.
The actual numbers are not needed for a comparison.
If 59% of the stops resulted in 78% of the arrests, not 59% of them, then clearly the people in that group were more likely to be found to be arrestable than the average.
If 22% of the stops resulted in 10% of the arrests, not 22% of them, then clearly the people in that group were less likely to be found to be arrestable than the average.
C
Captain Nemesis
They are not irrelevant to the percentage of white targets who were found to be in need of arrest compared to the percentage of black ones.
But I accept that you are utterly determined not to discuss that.
I wonder why you are so opposed to looking at the fact that when black people are stopped they are less likely to be found to be doing/have done something arrestable than when white people are.
What could possibly be your motive for that?
But I accept that you are utterly determined not to discuss that.
I wonder why you are so opposed to looking at the fact that when black people are stopped they are less likely to be found to be doing/have done something arrestable than when white people are.
What could possibly be your motive for that?
I have already explained.
C
Captain Nemesis
Sort of.
The figures in that chart cover unrelated comparisons.
You "explained" that you didnt want to consider one of those comparisons.
You may not realise it, but your refusal to recognise the existence of one of them fully explains why.
And its horrific, and genuinely insulting that you think people arent going to realise your motivation.
It doesn't matter what you pretend to think.
I will not rise to your ridiculous taunting.
I will not rise to your ridiculous taunting.
the captain / BAs is like one of them sperm whales
every so often he has to come to the surface and blow
C
Captain Nemesis
I dont "pretend" to think anything. I do it for real.
*************
Of course not.
Just like you will not rise to an analysis of the relative number of white people found to be arrestable compared to the relative number of black people because it doesnt fit the narrative you want.
Unfortunately for you you can do nothing about the fact that 59% of the stops resulted in 78% of the arrests.
************ deleted. Mod
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