Except for the UK Government who not only refuse to consider safe and legal routes, they prefer to waste money on unsuccessful attempts at stopping the refugees from seeking asylum,.
The problem is you tend to exploit your knowledge in the hope that others won't test your claims. It doesn't take much understanding to assess that your claims and assumptions are based on your politically biased desire of the outcome rather than a dispassionate view of reality.
I have no intention of trying to understand these aberrant currents. Just being aware of them provides an explanation for the occurrence of the outcome.
I think your usual MO is to rely on others not checking your 'calculations' or references to legal documents, and accepting your interpretation of them.
I'm fairly certain he's arguing simply for the sake of an argument at this point.
I've recently had posts deleted for responding to such ad hominem comments.
- We know the time they were found
- We know approximately when their engine stopped working and contact was lost
we know the weather and sea state
We can (and I have) worked out the tide for each hour and can work backwards from the location they were found to the point their propulsion failed. A NE wind F3 will have little to no effect on the distance to UK waters as it pretty much blew on a transit (a line that is parallel).
You mean one more attempt to misrepresent information, such as wind, tide, and most importantly their departure time.
Please do remind us with your relevant sources to your information. It's an area we haven't investigated yet, to verify your presented information.
Please do remind us of your estimation, together with your sources of information.
We've had to discuss the wind and tide in depth to arrive at a reasonable account. But none of that take account of the aberrant tidal currents in the Channel.
Where is the report that their engine failed?
There was no report of their engine not running. But if they believed they were in UK waters, it would be more advantageous to keep going rather than turn back.
We know that the tidal currents in the Channel are aberrant.
When we've properly ascertained where they were found, we can then, and only then ascertain how much the bodies drifted.
If they believed they were in British waters, and in distress, and that rescue was coming form the UK, it would make sense to continue on toward their potential rescue, rather than turn back away from it.
www.lemonde.fr
Fact is once a mobile is used there is positional info around. I have no idea if this is used but it could be. A famous freedom of information action showed that it is available. I believe a phone can do this as well but have only used GPS. True though the refugees would prefer being rescued by the uk for obvious reasons but if in a panic....................
if I remember what I read correctly.True but capturing the smugglers is proving to be difficult. Some have been arrested on the basis of the number of inflatables they have in storage. This is the purely EU end. Seems they were importing boats from China. Smuggling these in instead is unlikely to be difficult. All countries have crooks and dishonest people or some prepared to do things for cash. There is plenty of cash available
Done-
I can't provide you with better sources of the tidal stream info (its subscription based), but if you have a mobile, you can download a Navionics free trial to avoid the pencil and paper method. After 14 day you need to buy a subscription to the chart. The online one doesn't provide this info.Done-
I've given the tidal stream sources (Dover M) the direction, the strength and the reference tide.Deflation was the issue, the engine reportedly failed some 45 minutes later. if you recall in the eye witness account, they ran in to problems but the smugglers wanted to press on another 45 minutes to get to UK waters.
No you misunderstand how tidal stream charts work. The surveyors drop a measuring buoy and take tidal stream data for given tide at the reference port. Each tidal stream is provided with its location (lat and Long). My calculations uses DOVER <M> 51°4.92'N by 1°46.76'E. You could use Dover <P> or Dover <A>. You pick the nearest one to where you think you will be at the time.
feedback from the person supposedly coordinating/tracking the crossing.
Agree so another 3NM perhaps? This makes it harder to explain why they were found in French waters.
its something you keep saying but don't understand. Its accounted for by choosing the nearest tidal stream reference to where you think you are. In areas where the stream flow is complex, you will see a greater density, say 1-2Nm apart. In areas where they aren't maybe 50-10NM
We have its been disclosed 7-9NM off the coast of calais. Draw an arc as I did and measure the closest distance to UK waters (as I did).
Let us deal with this first.
Now you've changed to 7-9 nautical miles off Calais.
www.lemonde.fr
www.independent.co.uk
It's sensible to assume that the engine was working right up to their final position before the boat sank.
Le Monde is known for its opinions rather than its facts.Investigation of 2021 drowning of 27 migrants in Channel shows rescue services ignored calls for help
French investigators have revealed that the victims called for help numerous times, but French rescue services waited for them to pass into UK waters and no help was sent.
Your constant re-positioning of your argument gives rise to sufficient cause to question your 'calculations', your suggestions that it's incredible to think that bodies can drift for less than a nautical mile in open waters, and your persistent presentation of false information.Done-
Done-
Deflation was the issue, the engine reportedly failed some 45 minutes later. if you recall in the eye witness account, they ran in to problems but the smugglers wanted to press on another 45 minutes to get to UK waters.
No you misunderstand how tidal stream charts work. The surveyors drop a measuring buoy and take tidal stream data for given tide at the reference port. Each tidal stream is provided with its location (lat and Long). My calculations uses DOVER <M> 51°4.92'N by 1°46.76'E. You could use Dover <P> or Dover <A>. You pick the nearest one to where you think you will be at the time.
feedback from the person supposedly coordinating/tracking the crossing.
Agree so another 3NM perhaps? This makes it harder to explain why they were found in French waters.
its something you keep saying but don't understand. Its accounted for by choosing the nearest tidal stream reference to where you think you are. In areas where the stream flow is complex, you will see a greater density, say 1-2Nm apart. In areas where they aren't maybe 50-10NM
We have its been disclosed 7-9NM off the coast of calais. Draw an arc as I did and measure the closest distance to UK waters (as I did).
Thats reasonable and makes it harder to explain why they were found in French waters.
Clearly, you were not being generous, you were intentionally being disingenuous, and you're only changing your version in the light of intensive scrutiny.
The bodies were found about 9 nautical mile from Calais after about 12 hours of them being in the water.
In addition, the report states "in the vicinity of British waters:
The distance between France and UK at the point off Cap Gris Nez is about 18 nautical miles.Investigation of 2021 drowning of 27 migrants in Channel shows rescue services ignored calls for help
French investigators have revealed that the victims called for help numerous times, but French rescue services waited for them to pass into UK waters and no help was sent.
So 9 nautical miles off Cap Gris Nez will be about the dividing line.
So the bodies would only need to drift less than 1 nautical mile over 12 hours, to be in the position where they were found.
It's perfectly credible that bodies can drift in the Channel. For instance, one boat drifted about 15 miles in two days:
Asylum seekers rescued from English Channel 'after drifting for two days'
'They were in distress. They didn’t speak any English but they kept saying ‘Iran’ because I was asking where they had come from and if they were okay'
And one person drifted entirely across the Channel:
List of successful English Channel swimmers - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
The preferred method of swimming the Channel is England to France. I think it's safe to assume there is a logical reason for this.
FAQ | Channel Swimming Association
Here is a list of Frequently Asked Questions - FAQ, when deciding to train and swim the English Channel with the CSA.www.channelswimmingassociation.com
Now about the engine:
It's sensible to assume that the engine was working right up to their final position before the boat sank.
And as above, we've determined that could have been in British waters, but after 12 hours, they then drifted less than a nautical mile back into French waters.
Le Monde is known for its opinions rather than its facts.
Le Monde - Wikipedia
Again you're presenting incorrect information.
Ok show me your EP when they sunk accounting for the known tide.
The position that the dingy sank is reported by Sky News to be approximately between Gravelines and Dover. A distance about 28 nautical miles.From the variety of sources we have:
The reports range from 9NM off calais to 7 miles off calais and between Calais and Dunkirk. A reminder that Cap Griz-Nez is nowhere near either (some 20-30nm west). I would credit the illegal immigrants with the intelligence not to leave a beach in Dunkirk, travel 20-30 miles (3-6 hours) to Cap Griz-Nez and then make a right turn for dover. This also contradicts the so called eye witness claim that they went from a beach in Dunkirk west, to the Calais Dover line.
Look at a map
Navionics ChartViewer
webapp.navionics.com
Its also not reasonable to assume a dingy with 30+ passengers and a deflated starboard(?) pontoon would have managed to keep an outboard weighing 35-40kg sufficiently out of the water to avoid "drowning" it. Once the pontoon deflated and with 30 desperate passengers keen to avoid being subjected to a swim in 12-13 degree water, its a fairly certain probability the motor failed.
news.sky.com
