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Is the May 17th reopening a mistake?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by IT Minion, 12 May 2021.

  1. IT Minion

    IT Minion

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    I think it is.

    We know there is the Indian Variant B16722 in circulation and that it's currently doubling each week. If it's doing that whilst the now Traditional British variant B117 is holding more or less level that implies it's far more infectious.

    By reopening we will increase that rate of transmission even further. We don't know if it's also more lethal than the British strain or if it is likely to evade vaccinations. If we had been brave enough to kick the decision down the road by another 2 weeks or a month we might have better data on how dangerous it is and we'd have 5.2 million to 10.2 million people better protected.

    Hopefully it's just a statistical quirk but I'm depressed that we've decided to take that gamble.
     
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  3. johnny2007

    johnny2007

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    Is there anyone still following the lockdown rules???
     
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  4. ellal

    ellal

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    How about having better data (proper testing) of the various 'vaccines' as well?

    Anyone getting whichever jab they can't choose is also taking a gamble!

    Edit: What happens when another 'variant' suddenly appears?
    More kicking the can down the road?
     
  5. IT Minion

    IT Minion

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    I do, despite being fully vaccinated. I doubt I'm the only one.
     
  6. ellal

    ellal

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    Every single 'rule'?

    Have you known in intricate detail every single 'rule' at any particular time, since there so far have been nearly 100 'rule' changes!
     
  7. charliegolf

    charliegolf

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    You're not. Everyone we know is still being very sensible. On Lockdown, I've believed since Bozza's timeline speech, there is a plan which will accept, 'putting granny outside the igloo', ie accepting some losses. Against that, I also believe that the outcome might be soaring infections, but low hospitalisations and deaths via vaccine rollout. We'll see.
     
  8. motorbiking

    motorbiking

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    We cannot afford the lock down any longer.. Bills need to be paid and the country cannot remain in lockdown and fund wages forever. Last year infection rates dropped during the summer without any vaccination in circulation. The evidence so far is that it is not vaccine resistant. The UK results are where they are, not because of lockdown, but because we vaccinated half the population and high risk people first. The infection rate dropped rapidly once we ramped up vaccines.
     
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  9. IT Minion

    IT Minion

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    The general consensus from scientists disagrees with you. The level of vaccination at the moment isn't enough to suppress Covid-19 on its own. It won't be until Julyish before we are hitting that point.

    Also, there is no evidence either way on the resistance of the Indian variant. That's part of the problem. India doesn't have enough vaccinated people or enough sequencing ability to generate that data. We do.

    You say we can't afford to stay in the current level of controls any longer, but if it turns out that we'll need to re-start them it'll cost far more because any action after there's been an outbreak has to be far more dramatic than preventative steps. We're gambling.
     
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  11. ajohn

    ajohn

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    The majority of people are still following lock down rules. One's that aren't probably never have really. Idiots really.

    What are we at now. Simple really. Think of Van Tam's comment, handling covid is like building a boat while sailing it. Sometimes the design turns out to be flawed and it starts to sink. So the vaccination program is well advanced. How effective is it - relax the rules and find out. Obviously they are confident but there is only one way to find out, relax them and find out.

    A virologist on the TV said it wont take long to see if the Indian variant becomes dominant. Similar really. It's here and they are doing what they can about it. It will become dominant or it wont. There is no way of knowing which way it will go.

    Maybe area lock downs has been mentioned by a few. Another example. They tried one form prior to this wave and it didn't work out. That meant that the peak finished up higher than the first one. If they apply one again it's unlikely to be the same as the one that didn't work. It may be the larger area one they tried briefly - will it work - they don't know.
     
  12. motorbiking

    motorbiking

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  13. ajohn

    ajohn

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    @motorbiking tends to take a too simplistic view of the economics. It's been said that current interest payments are no worse than they used to be. There is a simple reason for that - what happens if a borrower can't pay them. They go broke and the lender looses all. When that happens to a country - the red cross etc start dropping food parcels to feed the population. We aren't the only country with problems.

    As the person from the IMF said early on in a jokular fashion - keep all of your receipts, plenty of money will be available and interest rates really will be low. They have to be to keep the machine going.
     
  14. ajohn

    ajohn

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    There is another debt aspect. Businesses in various sectors. An area I know nothing about - were they support gifts or pure loans. I heard a comment from one on the TV wondering how the hell they were going to pay it back. One way if needed would be price increases. Is it another situation similar to the banks - lending money to people who can't pay it back. Unless they are more gift orientated they wont be good for turn over and maybe even inflation.
     
  15. ReganAndCarter

    ReganAndCarter

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    Well I haven't been to a nightclub for quite a while, so it could be said that I'm sticking to some of the rules.................. ;)
     
    Last edited: 12 May 2021
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  16. JP_

    JP_

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    I think we have done what is called live testing.

    1.34 billion vaccines have been given.

    If it was as dangerous as you and other fearmongers keep claiming it to be then we'd expect to see some reports of people dying by now. As it is, we are saving millions of lives and helping get the world back in business.
     
  17. JP_

    JP_

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    I think most people are really, just about. My son had a friend over, but they spend the whole day sat next to each other at school so we agreed it was OK - plus all the adults in both families have been vaccinated.

    It's hard to break the rules really, as the pubs won't let me in!
     
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