- Joined
- 22 Aug 2006
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How do you do the sports thing? £:1 on City and 3:1 on United?The funny thing is, I do actually make money gambling on sports. Bookies are always closing my accounts down. That's what draws me to this. My sports betting is just arbitraging, not based on any knowledge of the sports in question. But with the financial markets I don't have arbitrage opportunities, so I end up trading based on fundamentals. And it doesn't work. And it seems to me that that's how people make money on the financial markets - not on forming an educated assessment based on all the relevant factors, but on testing and testing for numerical patterns that repeat in the markets. It must be very computationally intensive, and also very boring.
What are these 10+% bonds anyway?
The "carry trade" is arbitrage. I don't know how the mechanics work, eg how do I borrow money in Japan?
INvesting in fundamantals probably works over the long term, as long as you take everything else into account as well. It's the Warren B approach after all.
Early on I think you said Technical analysis (chart patterns) wasn't something you used. It definitely does work, though. Michael Nauss of Trade Ideas/Statsedge Trading is always saying he doesn't know what companies do, he ONLY uses chart patterns and price action. Range trading, trend/momentum trading and using levels is nothing whatsoever to do with the quality of the company.
MN doesn't even look at catalysts, Accumulation /distribution are really useful but nothing to do with the company.
He predicted the rise the other day of around 7% rise in Natural Gas, perely from charts.
He was "bullishon gold" way beack when yo expected the change by teaa time, but we're seeing it now. His Cup and Handle structure is years long, and we're getting the outcome now.
It becomes self-fulfilling, quite often.
If your aim is to make money, it's not boring. Taking 5 figures to 7 isn't boring. Football teams are boring as hell to me.
"What are these 10+% bonds anyway?"
??
Look at a screener!
There's one a few posts back, the orange line, 28% in a year.. Look at Convertible bonds - many have given over 20% overall.
Vanguard USD Corp Bond is up 7+% since May.
They do vary, you do have to use some thinking.