Writing in Ma’ariv newspaper in the aftermath of the Iranian strikes, the commentator Ben Caspit summed up the mood of many of Netanyahu’s domestic critics – who have cited the undermining of Israeli deterrence as proof of the prime minister’s unsuitability for office. “Israel’s deterrence, which had prevented Iran from attacking it directly, collapsed,” Caspit wrote. “How did Netanyahu once put it?” he added, referring to the same quote as Lapid: “When terror smells weakness, it strikes. “The Iranians have lost their sense of fear. No more proxies, undercover agents and covert terror attacks. From now on, it is Iran against Israel, out in the open. Israeli deterrence, which got Iran to swallow its pride every time anew and not to attack Israel directly, has now been shattered.”
Posting on the blog of the Institute for National Security Studies, Tamir Heyman, a former head of intelligence for the Israel Defense Forces, described a new and difficult strategic reality for Israel. “Israel and the United States failed to deter Iran from attacking,” he wrote. “Iran managed to harm Israel without obliging the United States to attack in response with Israel’s cooperation.
Beyond that, Milshtein said, the picture of Israeli deterrence was more relative. “With Iran and
Hezbollah the question becomes more tricky. Deterred from what? Iran could have attacked various embassies. Hezbollah is not deterred from an ongoing conflict of attrition in the north but is deterred from an escalation, but largely because of the context within Lebanon itself.”
HA Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, also said he saw a complicated picture. “When Iran did attack, it was massively choreographed,” he said, referring to the fact the strike had not only been flagged up in advance but that the US and neighbours had been warned. “If it had not been so well choreographed, if it had been a complete surprise, I think fewer missiles would have been taken out and others would have got through. And I think while it is definitely a cliche to say Israel is completely indebted and dependent on the US, it is also true that if the US and other allies had not stood alongside Israel we would have seen a different outcome. I don’t think people have grasped that properly before. That without American support there is really no way for Israel to maintain its security paradigm in way that it has.
