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Just went long 3x micro again. Up 3% so far, tight stop.
Today's lesson is a good one from Cherif:


Use limit orders on MSTR - wide spread. Even wider on the 3x.
 
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Just went long 3x micro again. Up 3% so far, tight stop.
Today's lesson is a good one from Cherif:


Use limit orders on MSTR - wide spread. Even wider on the 3x.
On what timeframe did you justify that? I suppose on 15M I could see that the 20MA was still trending up, but on shorter timeframes the opening trend looks broken to me.
 
Not everythings's trend based, this was using the TTV method - catalyst , levels. There are others, eg accumulation & distribution.
If something is reacting the recent opening, or an event in the market (a catalyst), then that will override a trend.
A Trend means a run of higher highs etc, so that takes time.
I don't use MAs unless I'm in a rut. TBH I don't know the defaults of how they work on the T212 new platform yet.
If you want a quick MA-ISH indicator, look at the Alligator. Look it up, it's not as simple as it looks, quite. It dumps some shifted MAs on the chart though.

Here - there's an obvous level where the 0% line is, and another where I put the dashed green line which was a SUPPORT level.
My ins and outs were about where the arrows are,, and I was only going long.
I went long when the price hit the dotty green level for the third or fourth time, off a pending buy order, then got out when there was an extra tall candle, similar top to the previous one as I've mentioned before.
Swore at it when it went higher, but nothing lost. Thought it might bounce off the level at "0%" , which it didn't reach but went back to dotty green so I went in again. Iirc I entered when it rejected the level - that long bottom wick, so at about 3%. I can't catch the wick like Catena does, but the new platform is better for quickly setting pending orders, on the chart, so I shold do better.
Have you checked the new chart yet? It's a bit of a hybrid but once you find "single click ordering" and the Plus sign on the horizontal crosshair it becomes better than it was.
Then there was another extra-high candle breaking the "0%" level, so take profit and exit. Then when it decided it was deffo breaking the 0% I went long for the third time, untl it wasn't, so quit around 20% mark.
If I'd been a proper day trader I may have followed it down, but iirc the catalyst had expired.

I put the Alligator on (3 lines) just now just to show it. You can adjust its time periods. If I had entered when green came up through at least red and the price above blue and was rising (there are variations on the "rules") then I would have made money, but not as much. Looks like the periods deaults are a bit long. The blurb will go on about teeth and lips and mouth. IN combination with the levels, you have confluence, tick tick. It's quite a reliable thing, but you have to obey ALL the rules.
Like most but not all indicators, Alli is lagging, but the Price action, ie off the levels, only lags by one candle! Catalysts are a lagging indicator if the event was a once-off and has happened. If people are still getting the news and reacting to it, then it's leading indicator.

1713874667477.png

Ope that elps.

You have to try this stuff without the pressure of the handbag on it, so maybe take a day off and only use the Sim.
When I started, I would think something was justified, but with any money at all at risk, I'd get scared. Even a couple of quid.
Then when you think "I'll try this" you realise you're being stupid - you're "seeing" if it'll lose you money.
Then I read something and took heed of what I'd heard so many times, that IF and only IF you are making money in the sim, then the losing trades are just part of doing business, like damaged goods in a shop.. Avoid them at nearly all costs, but they exist.
It's also good to see whether a trade would "come good" or not. If it's sort of meandering around all day and ot just went the wrong way on you, estimate how much you COULD lose. Would that be bearable? If not, get out ASAP.

One thing I've done (if the spread's small) is enter a counter trade for a slightly larger amount, so you start winning again while you hold on to the original (losing) trade. Then either close both when you're even/up a little, or close one of them. If the new (unintended) ove comes back, youclose your remedial counter trade, and watch the original's position come good, then hopefully go into profit. It works if you're range trading. That's raising the stakes so try it 10 times in the sim before you use money.

I may not bother today. A friend's 18yr old kid wants some help reading a book. Yoof of today, honestly.... And the dad will ask "do I owe you anything".
 
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I can't even see the prices on Microstrategy before the open, and I can't trade it even after it has opened as the minimum stake now requires more margin than my whole account, so it's no use for me to follow.

I got in too early on Roblox today and got stopped out. Tried to take the breakout on ARM, but it didn't work. Very lucky to end up just in profit.

  • 23/04/2024 18:32
    Spotify Technology SA
    +1
    31105
    31602.3
    £497.30
  • 23/04/2024 18:13
    Alphabet Inc - A (All Sessions)
    +1
    15748
    15846.8
    £98.80
  • 23/04/2024 15:49
    Amazon.com Inc (All Sessions)
    -0.50
    17753
    17751
    £1.00
  • 23/04/2024 15:35
    ARM Holdings PLC - ADR
    +1
    9814
    9670.2
    -£143.80
  • 23/04/2024 14:39
    Roblox Corporation
    +3
    3678
    3570
    -£324.00
  • 23/04/2024 14:36
    Amazon.com Inc (All Sessions)
    +1
    17825
    17710
    -£115.00
  • Total
    £14.30
 
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The spread now is 0.8%, which isn't low but some are higher. Seems odd. Myplatform isn't great by any means.
SMCI is pretty wide.

There are comments in the chat today about SC not mentioning his losses, a guy named DD. Wonder if he'll vanish...

-£324 ?? . Stop losses?? I lost a bit today, I haven't checked how much yet! My fault, I was bored and not concentrating.
 
I would have been stopped out of my nvidia trade yesterday if I'd had a stop loss in place and then would have been heavily down overall on the day.
 
You keep doing things people who do trading better than you do not do, losing, then trying to justify what you did wrong. Have you not noticed?


Numbers don't seem to fit my chart - whatever

[sorry, lost the screenshot]

That move today - what two or more reasons did you have to enter? You didn't. You guessed, and went too heavy, and didn't get out before you lost a bigger % of your pot than you should. Hard to read I expect, but it's the same story over and over.
You're kidding yourself if you think your strategy is likely to win.

If Catena guesses, it's to boost his ego. If he loses a few grand on the move it doesn't matter much, he can put 1000 shares on a better quality move
How often do stocks drop back immediately like that? Very often. I find I can usualy tell before the first candle's finished. If you can't, is it worth you risking it? NO. You need to stop losing. It's much too big a % of your pot.
What's the smallest $/point you can play?

You left a stop loss out once and got lucky. So ... what. My granny smoked 60 a day and lived to 100 so smoking is fine.....
I

Most days you have at least one trade which loses too much.
Set the size better. Look after the risk management better.
Stop guessing. You're chucking a knife at a loaf and coplaining the slices aren't very good, and you saw some guy in a circus do it. It's nuts.

Only enter a trade if you're pretty darned sure it's going to be a winner.
Better to sit there all day doing nothing exeyt watch than lose £50 - unless you 're enjoying it.

You're going to blow your account.. Death by a thousand cuts. Or only a hundred in your case.


Just recently - a simple, high percentage trade:

1713901358926.png


The level had developed, right? Blue line. There was a pull back UP, so I waited for the trend to start down again. Entered on the upper arrow. Was out for about a minute. Got back in at the second arrow and down it went, further than I expected, to low of day. About 3.3%, pretty safe. If you watch a few charts at once, there's one of those frequently if there's any movement at all.
 
Roblox had been upgraded by JP Morgan (read the email), the 20MA quickly crossed over the 50MA and 100MA, AND Shawn had set a level to go long on it. As you have said, his levels are not exact.

There's no way to be darned sure that any trade is going to work.

I don't know if you actually went short on Tesla or not. At least I post my results. But just shorting something because it comes up from a support level, is hardly a proper strategy is it? It's not called a support level for nothing. The price is supposed to come UP from it. What was your catalyst? The vwap shows that the trend was up. Why did you go against that (twice) when you think it's so essential NOT to go against the trend?

Tesla 2.JPG
 
Every dog will have its day and here comes the FTSE 100 index, not so much soaring as limping to a record high of 8,076. If that sounds too grumpy, consider that the previous record, 8,047, was set in February last year. In the 14 months it has taken the UK’s premier index to regain its old record level, the S&P 500 index in the US has marched upwards by 22% – and done so in a straight line, more or less, until a slip in the past fortnight.

Thus, as ever with indices, remember that they are no more than the sum of their parts. The Footsie is not a symbol of national economic virility; it is just a collection of the 100 largest companies listed in London (weighted by value) and includes more than a few (try the Chilean copper miner Antofagasta or the US hedge fund Pershing Square) that have few real ties here. Even Shell, the biggest company of the lot, makes less than 5% of its profits in the UK.

And, for the purely domestic element of the UK market, life doesn’t look too bad currently. The top retailers – the likes of Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer and Next – have all turned in good numbers in recent weeks. The election of a pro-business Labour government holds few fears for investors. And the spate of US-led takeovers for FTSE 250 companies – think the logistics firm Wincanton and the building products supplier Tyman – suggests historic low valuations in parts of the UK market are being noticed abroad.

None of which guarantees that the Footsie will stay above 8,000 this time: most obviously, the dollar-pound effect can reverse, as it did slightly on Tuesday afternoon after the lunchtime warning from the Bank of England’s chief economist about the dangers of cutting UK interest rates too soon. And investors everywhere may be far too relaxed about Iran-Israel tensions. Best to stick to assessments of relative market value, on which score the UK looks cheap. But it has done for a while: a new high was overdue.

Nils Pratley@the Grauniad
 
RHM was boring this morning. SPread settled to less that a Euro. When it cleared the spread I got out.for a trivial gain.

Yes I took those Tesla trades, which was about the levels and the price action, not trends.
One needs to decide which is the relevant driver in a particular case. You can't select from everything you've ever heard anywhere to pick one bit to trade, or not trade, or object afterwards.
I did not say one always has to go wit the trend.
I suggested YOU should always go with a trend, because that's generally a way to shift the odds in your favour and you seem to be failing too much at other things for your own comfort.

There's no way to be darned sure that any trade is going to work.
Experience, education, understanding and logic all combine to give what I said, which you've altered - stop fighting - I wrote pretty darned sure. I said a high percentage trade.
Even then, we know, it can do something else. One "only" needs to get the winners producing more than the losers take overall. You have the tool of deciding when to get out, so , you will read, that you should be able to afford several losses for one win. I don't think I risk as much as that suggests. If you sit long in someting whch isn't working, it might come good but that trade has a higher chance of staying negative by more than when it just started.

You have misunderstood the idea of buying the dips and shorting the pops, evidenced by this
But just shorting something because it comes up from a support level, is hardly a proper strategy is it? It's not called a support level for nothing. The price is supposed to come UP from it.
If it's in a range going back repeatedly to a support level, that's range trading That's how it works, Read about it.
Obi talks about Leves as being "Magnetic" which isn't entirelt right, but can apply.
YOu have got it wrong when you say "just shorting something because it comes up from a support level". Nobody said do that. You made that up - looks like you're suggesting I said it so you can tell me I'm wrong............ stop that please.
If the price comes up off support, and turns and goes back down - typically from another level but not necessarlily, owards the support level , yes it is a proper strategy. It's not complicated. It's like a ball bouncing off the ground. It might go into orbit so you'd leave it, but if it's falling, it's likely to it the ground.
SImlarly, as it happens, if a price goes diving fast towards a level, it'll often bounce back up a bit, then fall agani. An area of interest.

Right, SOrry I want aware exactly what SC wrote I wasn't trading Roblox. Usually the spread is wide.
1713949133656.png

His level is the yellow dashes.
He doesn't make up the levels, look back athe previous days and you'll see where he gets it from.*
Your trade is something like the arrow, the numbers don't quite match.
>>Looking at it now, if you'd sized the order appropriately for your pot, you could have stayed in.
>>We said the prices sometimes shoot off "the wrong way".
>>Participate don't act on anticipation
>>I said I generally wait for the direction to set up. If you'd waited a couple of minutes where would you be.....?
>>I suggested you always do that . It might reduce your winnings, but it is likely to avoid losses.


3 bucks a point is 300 shares, right? So, 10k's worth of shares, when the spread was likely to be wide at that time, it's a smallish cap stock.
So you loaded quite a bit risk on to it.

*Where he got it from:

1713950353529.png

The market reaction was a jump up from the last couple of days as predicted, but it only went to the previous range, it never properly broke that level he chose. The actual price relative to the level wasn't "about right", it was the wrong side.
So there ae three hindsight takeaways - size appropriately, look at the chart, and (particularly if you haven't looked at the chart,) wait for the trade to start working.
 
Every dog will have its day and here comes the FTSE 100 index, not so much soaring as limping to a record high of 8,076. If that sounds too grumpy, consider that the previous record, 8,047, was set in February last year. In the 14 months it has taken the UK’s premier index to regain its old record level, the S&P 500 index in the US has marched upwards by 22% – and done so in a straight line, more or less, until a slip in the past fortnight.

Thus, as ever with indices, remember that they are no more than the sum of their parts. The Footsie is not a symbol of national economic virility; it is just a collection of the 100 largest companies listed in London (weighted by value) and includes more than a few (try the Chilean copper miner Antofagasta or the US hedge fund Pershing Square) that have few real ties here. Even Shell, the biggest company of the lot, makes less than 5% of its profits in the UK.

And, for the purely domestic element of the UK market, life doesn’t look too bad currently. The top retailers – the likes of Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer and Next – have all turned in good numbers in recent weeks. The election of a pro-business Labour government holds few fears for investors. And the spate of US-led takeovers for FTSE 250 companies – think the logistics firm Wincanton and the building products supplier Tyman – suggests historic low valuations in parts of the UK market are being noticed abroad.

None of which guarantees that the Footsie will stay above 8,000 this time: most obviously, the dollar-pound effect can reverse, as it did slightly on Tuesday afternoon after the lunchtime warning from the Bank of England’s chief economist about the dangers of cutting UK interest rates too soon. And investors everywhere may be far too relaxed about Iran-Israel tensions. Best to stick to assessments of relative market value, on which score the UK looks cheap. But it has done for a while: a new high was overdue.

Nils Pratley@the Grauniad
Good points. The banking sector in particular has received comments that it's undervalued, particularly Lloyds.. I've had some of the 3x etf for a while.

Marks and Sparks, Ocado, Rolls Royce and one or two other previously good performers have had a spring break away from the leaderboard, but are signs of comig back now. AstraZenica spent a while in the doldrums, even BAe and a couple of other defence-associated stocks have been lazy. Even so, this quarter the FTSE has come up more (a few percent) than it did overall, last year (one and a bit %).
A major impediment to dipping in and ouit of the UK stocks is the 0.5% tax. There isn't one for US stocks. (0.35 in the EU)..

3x Lloyds: CHeck the %.. It has been flat for the past 3 weekks or so. Could take off again?? It'll depend what people like German economists think!

1713952567635.png
 
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...even BAe and a couple of other defence-associated stocks have been lazy. Even so, this quarter the FTSE has come up more (a few percent) than it did overall, last year (one and a bit %).

I imagine investment in defence will enjoy a bounce after the govt. announced it'd raise gdp spending up to 2.5% by 2030.
 
YOu have got it wrong when you say "just shorting something because it comes up from a support level". Nobody said do that. You made that up - looks like you're suggesting I said it so you can tell me I'm wrong............ stop that please.
I didn't say that you said it, but that it was the only justification I could see for your trade. It had broken out of the top of the range when you first shorted it, so doesn't look like a range trade to me.
 
I'd been being diligent recently, watching some of SMB Capital's videos, doing some serious learning about levels and bull flags. Saw Tesla moving up in particular and set a tp at a level corresponding to a move equivalent to its move last night. Unfortunately it came back down on Shawn's level. Also, I was more disciplined and kept my individual losses much lower. Very impressive of Shawn though, don't know how he predicted that.

  • 24/04/2024 16:19
    Palantir Technologies Inc (All Sessions)
    -4
    2194.7
    2177.3
    £69.60
  • 24/04/2024 15:42
    Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
    +0.50
    16315
    16208
    -£53.50
  • 24/04/2024 15:38
    Tesla Motors Inc (All Sessions)
    +0.50
    16563
    16307
    -£128.00
  • 24/04/2024 15:05
    Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (All Sessions)
    +2
    7395
    7375.5
    -£39.00
  • 24/04/2024 15:03
    Alphabet Inc - A (All Sessions)
    +1
    15878
    15759
    -£119.00
  • 24/04/2024 14:50
    Marathon Digital Holdings Inc
    -5
    1943.1
    1979.7
    -£183.00
  • Total: -£452.9
1713972889265.png
 
Bonus trade on Palantir as it hit Shawn's level like Tesla did:

24/04/2024 17:07
Palantir Technologies Inc (All Sessions)
+6
2148.2
2135.5
-£76.20
 
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