The transition to EVs

[diy_fun_uk]

Was watching a tv prog on ch5 the other night re EVs and some of the challenges we face transitioning to them. One of the main thrusts was, at present, EV sales are outstripping available infrastructure e.g. charging locations, home charging options etc. This evidently needs to change i.e. adequate infrastructure needs to be in place first.

Another point raised was timescales around the transition and how, when it comes to new vehicle sales, the time will come when as a consumer your only option will be an EV (new petrol/diesel banned.) So in a sense, our hands will be forced.

However, this got me thinking. How exactly is the UK government going to manage the outright ban on the use of existing petrol/diesel vehicles for domestic consumers? Let's say for the sake of conversation there's an outright ban on the sale of new petrol/diesel cars by 2030. Clear enough, quite a definitive line in the sand. However, let's say you've bought a shiny new petrol car in 2029. You might want to run it to 2040 or beyond.

So, any ideas on how they'll introduce a transition to an outright ban on the use or sale of any petrol/diesel vehicles? Surely they'll need to set a date of something like 2050 (at the earliest) to give people time to fully transition and for fossil fuel vehicle usage to decline and cease at a reasonable rate?

 

[flameport]

Unlikely there will be a ban on existing vehicles. They will just be gradually priced off the road as is already happening in London and other cities - pay high fees for use in city centres, and expand that to other towns and other roads.
Fuel taxes and VED will increase.
The number of locations to buy petrol/diesel will continue to decline.
Within a few years of no new petrol/diesel vehicles, replacement parts will become less available and more expensive.

 

[jeds]

Petrol and diesel cars will be around for many, many, many years after 2030. From memory the aim is for 50% EVs by 2030 - something like 16 million cars. That will be extremely difficult to achieve but nothing compared to providing the required infrastructure which will be even more difficult. That's just half remember - which of course leaves half ICEs as well. I'm all for EVs - I have a hybrid on order and will definitely own a full EV at some point. But until digital batteries come on line the while thing is a pipe dream.

 

[ajohn]

Being able to do what we normally do in cars is likely to be very tricky with an EV due to range. Much will depend on how far people need to travel. Some people say oh will stop at say motorway services and have drink while it recharges but think of how many charge points it would need. Then where does the amount of power needed come from.

There is a lot more interest in hydrogen due to this but it's rather inefficient stuff to produce. This would allow us all to continue as normal.

 

[diy_fun_uk]

Being able to do what we normally do in cars is likely to be very tricky with an EV due to range. Much will depend on how far people need to travel. Some people say oh will stop at say motorway services and have drink while it recharges but think of how many charge points it would need. Then where does the amount of power needed come from.

There is a lot more interest in hydrogen due to this but it's rather inefficient stuff to produce. This would allow us all to continue as normal.

Yeah they covered this on the tv prog. They showed a council pilot scheme for those that live on a street with no off-street parking i.e. those with EVs were having to run the cable across the pavement. That throws up a whole lot of possible legal issues (e.g. someone tripping over it.) So the pilot scheme essentially involved a small trench, channeled out of the pavement, for the power cable to slot into. Whilst it did the job, I was reminded of the mess we were left with after Telewest/Virgin dug up roads and pavements all over the UK, with the making good sometimes not all that 'good.'

And the presenter had no end of issues with public charging points. A government spokesperson said they aim to install 300k points by 2030 and to ensure the payment methods etc are more standardised i.e. no more 'wild west' with operators.

I think, unless the tech gets a lot better speed wise, we're going to have no choice but to plan our 'filling up' more than we do with petrol/diesel.

I will buy a petrol/diesel within the next couple of years and run it for a decade. By then, most of the current issues around EV ownership will hopefully have significantly lessened and I'll buy my first EV when I'm 60ish

 

[securespark]

What will happen is that, when the prohibition of sale of new petrol or Diesel cars comes in, there will be increased VED on those cars and the price of fuel will also rise. These increases will be revisited every year thereafter.

 

[conny]

We were in London the week before last and walking down one street we saw a car plugged into a charging point installed in a lamp post at the edge of the kerb. It didn't look like any sort of mock up or DIY job as the curved plate it was plugged into looked like a genuine part of the post. It was about shoulder height, (maybe 5' or around 1500mm to you youngsters). Don't know how it would be paid for, maybe through your smart phone or something, but we thought it was a good idea. No big charging point taking up pavement space and very unobtrusive. Only problem we could see is the distance between lamp posts.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

Petrol and diesel cars will be around for many, many, many years after 2030. From memory the aim is for 50% EVs by 2030 - something like 16 million cars. That will be extremely difficult to achieve but nothing compared to providing the required infrastructure which will be even more difficult. That's just half remember - which of course leaves half ICEs as well. I'm all for EVs - I have a hybrid on order and will definitely own a full EV at some point. But until digital batteries come on line the while thing is a pipe dream.

Correct - EV's are at best a rush to a stop gap fix, they will have to eventually come up with a proper fix with adequate range, but in the meantime there will have to be massive investment in upgraded infrastructure which may then be wasted. Best hope, is that then everyone may need two vehicle - a short range electric one, still making use of the infrastructure investment and long range one running on what ever new fuel. EV's are an ideal for short distance, regular commuting, for everyone else......????

 

[jeds]

Solid state batteries will increase range of the average vehicle to 500, 600, 700+ miles. They are much lighter, much cleaner and charge much faster, and they are cheaper to manufacture - although I've no doubt some way will be found to charge more for them? They will be a game changer for EVs and also how we power our homes. In 25 years time nobody will have a gas boiler, we will be all-electric and most of the incoming electricity will be renewable. But, as we all know, the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow, so we will need a back up. That will be a big battery. either on the wall where the boiler used to be - or the car on your driveway. Yes, the car on your driveway will be your house power back up.

 

[mitch66]

Solid state batteries will increase range of the average vehicle to 500, 600, 700+ miles. They are much lighter, much cleaner and charge much faster, and they .....

Cool beanz Mr Jetson

 

[Dork Lard]

In the very near future, poor people won't be able to afford & run their own version of what we call "a car" today.

Which bit don't you understand?

Only rich people will have their own personal automobile conveyance.

You will own nothing, & you will be happy.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

Solid state batteries will increase range of the average vehicle to 500, 600, 700+ miles. They are much lighter, much cleaner and charge much faster, and they are cheaper to manufacture - although I've no doubt some way will be found to charge more for them? They will be a game changer for EVs and also how we power our homes. In 25 years time nobody will have a gas boiler, we will be all-electric and most of the incoming electricity will be renewable. But, as we all know, the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow, so we will need a back up. That will be a big battery. either on the wall where the boiler used to be - or the car on your driveway. Yes, the car on your driveway will be your house power back up.

Charging the batteries for backup purposes, may mean the the green sources will need to be doubled up - once for the present load, second for the recharging. Likewise the infrastructure will need to be able to cope with both loads. Nuclear as backup, reduces that needed capacity down to just supplying the present load.

However, nuclear once running costs little to just keep it supplying, so why not forget the hand wavy green generation completely and just rely on nuclear all the time?

 

[ajohn]

Solid state batteries? The term battery has very specific meanings no matter what is in them. A name change doesn't mean anything really. Reality at the moment. I could run a Tesla. 300miles at 75mph. Batteries likely to last longer than the car but capacity does drop with age. I might be able to charge at 18kw at home. It would be ok for my usual use and some leisure use. It would need a recharge for some trips I might make. However I'd need to spend £60k or so and I wouldn't be very unhappy with the boot space.

Also hydrogen Nexo - maybe better boot space but £65

 

[Tigercubrider]

People forget that early motorists bought cans of petrol from chemists’ shops.
Eventually petrol pumps arrived at garages, then filling stations.

charging points are becoming more common and loads of petrol stations in my area have closed down in the last 20 odd years. Mostly for housing.

nobody is suggesting that petrol will be banned, but it’s supply and demand.

 

[ajohn]

Nuclear as backup, reduces that needed capacity down to just supplying the present load.

One of the ideas is use excess electricity to generate hydrogen. The problem with pure wind is that it can't be consistent. We have just had a period were wind levels were very low over the entire country. So for wind only a min wind speed needs to be specified and then sufficient windmills added to supply the entire country.

So instead of that the aim is 10 nuke stations one being built each year used to supplement the supply. The problem may be getting some one to build them for us. Toshiba were going to build one at some point but dropped out as not enough money in it. EDF seems to be the company building them at the moment. No idea what France charges us.It's state owned. Sensible choice for power and fuel really.

Will Boris manage 10 in 10 years? It seems several PM's have had problems heading in the same general direction.

Either way the building etc costs are paid via the customers as they use it.

House heating capacity depends on the street wiring - hence insulation being needed. Some have 100amps so 24kw, others have 80amps and some I think 60. The suppliers will upgrade house fuses but that need not relate to what the street wiring can actually cope with.