P
Possel
I'd second that. Is the render cracked at all? If it's cement render and it's slightly separated from the brickwork at the top, then water will just go straight down the brickwork and then carry on down behind the render. NB In the close-up exterior photo there are a couple of faint horizontal lines along the render - do those indicate cracks?water sneaking in behind the rendered chimney, thats my guess.
There's also the question of how good the flaunching is around the base of the pot.