Over the many years that I've watched the results of general elections I've noticed a pattern. For the most part, disaffected Labour supporters do not vote Liberal. The first solid evidence for this came in a previous election when, thanks to advances in computer graphics, we were treated to a three-way version of the famous swingometer and it was clear just how few Lib-Lab marginals there were. 
The pattern has just repeated itself. Sunderland announced the first three results and they all showed significant swings to the Conservatives. Being solid Labour seats it made no difference but that's not the point. Imagine that you're a Labour voter who's been pushed too far. For whatever reason you feel unable to vote Labour this time but why give your vote to your arch enemy?
Disillusioned Conservative supporters seem to be more thoughtful about where they cast their vote and so the Lib Dems and others generally do better when a Conservative government goes belly up. (Maybe they just can't lower themselves so far as to vote Labour but that would need a different poll.)
My mother-in-law provides a possible answer. She's always voted Labour but, if it came to the crunch, she would have to vote Conservative because she doesn't think the other parties should exist! Her simplistic view of politics is 100% class based. If you aren't with US then you're with THEM. There is nothing in between. (When it comes to non-class - which to her means non-political - issues she is absolutely unequivocal. Her views are the only right ones and I'd bet my next week's wages that they're the same as her mother's. )
Now a sample of one is hardly representative so I ask all you Labour supporters out there: If push came to shove, which way would you turn?
The pattern has just repeated itself. Sunderland announced the first three results and they all showed significant swings to the Conservatives. Being solid Labour seats it made no difference but that's not the point. Imagine that you're a Labour voter who's been pushed too far. For whatever reason you feel unable to vote Labour this time but why give your vote to your arch enemy?
Disillusioned Conservative supporters seem to be more thoughtful about where they cast their vote and so the Lib Dems and others generally do better when a Conservative government goes belly up. (Maybe they just can't lower themselves so far as to vote Labour
but that would need a different poll.)My mother-in-law provides a possible answer. She's always voted Labour but, if it came to the crunch, she would have to vote Conservative because she doesn't think the other parties should exist!
Her simplistic view of politics is 100% class based. If you aren't with US then you're with THEM. There is nothing in between. (When it comes to non-class - which to her means non-political - issues she is absolutely unequivocal. Her views are the only right ones and I'd bet my next week's wages that they're the same as her mother's. )Now a sample of one is hardly representative so I ask all you Labour supporters out there: If push came to shove, which way would you turn?
