Impeccable logic

[Softus]

Now if there was 3 cups and you got 3 people to stand with them not knowing which one has the object under them, there is a guarenteed 1 in 3 chance that one has it. And each person has the same 1 in 3 odds and also has 2 in 3 of not having the object. Now if one gets eliminated then the other 2 people still have a 1 in 2 chance and also a 1 in 2 chance of not having it. And on that occasion its 50:50

My letterbox is gaping really quite porn0graphically in anticipation of the arrival of your video footage.

 

[ricicle]

Now if there was 3 cups and you got 3 people to stand with them not knowing which one has the object under them, there is a guarenteed 1 in 3 chance that one has it

I'd say there was a 100% chance that one of the three people has it

 

[jackpot]

There is no need for video the logic is in the writing.
I can not see the logic in your experiment as like i say a 1 in 3 chance. Yet with infinite goes you can never pick the right cup first time. Without manual intervention the task of not picking the correct cup with infinite goes is impossible.

 

[joe-90]

There's a very easy way to convince all the doubters.

Take three upturned cups and a small object that each cup can conceal underneath.

Ask a family member to act the part of Monty Hall, i.e. to hide the object underneath one of the cups (without you seeing), and, after you've made your first choice, to lift a cup that doesn't conceal the object. Then you make your swap decision, and then you see which cup conceals the object.

Do this about thirty times, and see how often the object appears under each cup. Unless one of you cheats, I expect that it will be about 10 times under each one.

If you believe that the probability that we're all debating is 50:50, and if you're right, then the object will be under the cup that you first chose about 15 times, instead of about 10.

So what if a different family member took over from the original member that started the process off - and arrived at the point where the 'swap' would take place. This new member has no knowledge of what has happened just before they arrived but is simply faced with two cups. One has the small object underneath and one does not. Are the odds 50-50 or not?

It all depends at what point the player JOINS the game. One plays the game with three cups and one with two. You can't mix the contestants up or you'll get gibberish.

 

[Softus]

So what if a different family member took over from the original member that started the process off - and arrived at the point where the 'swap' would take place.

Feel free to do it that way if you wish. £100 is yours for the taking.

This new member has no knowledge of what has happened just before they arrived but is simply faced with two cups. One has the small object underneath and one does not. Are the odds 50-50 or not?

Not.

It all depends at what point the player JOINS the game. One plays the game with three cups and one with two. You can't mix the contestants up or you'll get gibberish.

Then please feel free to not mix the contestants up - you make the rules; you send the tape; you have four extra ponies in yer Lucy cor blimey.

 

[jackpot]

This new member has no knowledge of what has happened just before they arrived but is simply faced with two cups. One has the small object underneath and one does not. Are the odds 50-50 or not?

Not.

Can you kindly tell us what the odds are then?

 

[Softus]

There is no need for video the logic is in the writing.

In that case I shall send you the princely sum of £0.

I can not see the logic in your experiment

I have never been less surprised in my life.

Yet with infinite goes you can never pick the right cup first time. Without manual intervention the task of not picking the correct cup with infinite goes is impossible.

 

[jackpot]

There is no need for video the logic is in the writing.

In that case I shall send you the princely sum of £0.

I can not see the logic in your experiment

I have never been less surprised in my life.

Yet with infinite goes you can never pick the right cup first time. Without manual intervention the task of not picking the correct cup with infinite goes is impossible.

But im right tho as i will never pick the correct cup first time..when really i only have 3 cups to pick from

 

[Softus]

Can you kindly tell us what the odds are then?

Yes.

 

[jackpot]

Share it with us then and tell us the reasoning and calcualtions behind it.

 

[Softus]

Share it with us then and tell us the reasoning and calcualtions behind it.

Assuming that you're referring to joe-90's stated scenario of replacing the original family member who was playing the Monty Hall role, then the odds are in favour of swapping, because the probability of the object being under the alternative cup is 2/3.

The reasoning supporting this conclusion is published earlier on this topic, and also on approximately four zillion trillion million web sites on the subject.

 

[joe-90]

Softus. When the second family member takes over there are two cups. One has an object under and one does not.

Now take a coin. Nominate the cup with an object underneath it as 'heads' and the cup without the object underneath it as 'tails'

Now flip the coin a hundred times and give us the results (he won't)

 

[Softus]

Now flip the coin a hundred times and give us the results (he won't)

No, joe-90, I won't, because I've already made you the reasonable offer of money in exchange for video footage of you carrying out the experiment.

If you decline, then that's your choice, but as I've said before, many times, I'm happy to agree to disagree with you on this topic and to leave it at that.

 

[JohnD]

Inductive reasoning, Joe.

Was discredited 250 years ago.

 

[joe-90]

Now flip the coin a hundred times and give us the results (he won't)

No, joe-90, I won't, because I've already made you the reasonable offer of money in exchange for video footage of you carrying out the experiment.

If you decline, then that's your choice, but as I've said before, many times, I'm happy to agree to disagree with you on this topic and to leave it at that.

In other words Softus is admitting that Joe-90 is right and he is wrong.