Trumps attack on Iran - 2026 edition

How will the upcoming attack on Iran go.

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"Just two weeks ago, the president declared the war with Iran to be “very complete, pretty much”, claiming that Iran had “no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter.” Risk assets rose sharply and oil fell then, too. And every syllable out of the president’s mouth turned out to be nonsense. A day later stocks resumed their decline, oil its rise and bond yields their ascent."

FT.com
 
motorbiking said:
It's strange.. we have a country that was quite clearly developing nuclear weapons,
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It quite clearly wasn't. No credible source says they were.

But maybe you know better than the International Atomic Energy Agency.

www.middleeastmonitor.com

IAEA says no evidence Iran is building a nuclear bomb

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, has said there is no evidence that Iran is currently building a nuclear bomb, while warning that unresolved issues surround…
www.middleeastmonitor.com www.middleeastmonitor.com
 
noseall said:
They have countered with a five point plan, and told Trump to shove his long winded demands up his ninny.
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I

Hmm the source ID of said rejection has not been released

The Iranian leadership is in tatters and fragmented or dead communications are down

Local
Commanders of the rev guards in various districts are sort of doing as they see fit
 
IT Minion said:
It quite clearly wasn't. No credible source says they were.

But maybe you know better than the International Atomic Energy Agency.

www.middleeastmonitor.com

IAEA says no evidence Iran is building a nuclear bomb

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, has said there is no evidence that Iran is currently building a nuclear bomb, while warning that unresolved issues surround…
www.middleeastmonitor.com www.middleeastmonitor.com
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No doubt about it the mad mullers are / were intent on getting the bomb
 
motorbiking said:
honest party in this war... in the media at least.
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The problem is that Trump lies so much that he cannot be trusted, if someone else disagrees then it's only reasonable to assume that Trump is lying.

And when he can't name who he's supposedly negotiating with after being told the person he claimed he was talking to denied it, it's clear that yes, he was making **** up again. does anyone really believe that he was engaged in negotiations at that point?

He gave Iran the chance to be more honest than him. He handed that tiny victory to them.

The real problem isn't that Iran is being seen as the more honest party, the real problem is that, at least that time, they were the more honest party.
 
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transam said:
No doubt about it the mad mullers are / were intent on getting the bomb
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No doubt in your mind, but that's a pretty iffy place and not really that closely attached to reality.

In the real world they weren't working on it. They probably do see it as the only way to stop the US and Israel attacking them, but they know they'll get hammered if they do try to build one, and to be a fully effective deterrent they'd need a few dozen and they don't have that much material.
 
IT Minion said:
No doubt in your mind, but that's a pretty iffy place and not really that closely attached to reality.

In the real world they weren't working on it. They probably do see it as the only way to stop the US and Israel attacking them, but they know they'll get hammered if they do try to build one, and to be a fully effective deterrent they'd need a few dozen and they don't have that much material.
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There's always hope though, eh!
One day. One day your dream may come true.
Iran nuke Israel.
 
Lirefighter said:
There's always hope though, eh!
One day. One day your dream may come true.
Iran nuke Israel.
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There is still hope, Trump had an agreement on the table to remove the Iranian enriched Uranium. Maybe someone else can get us back to where we were before he screwed it all up.

Designing a nuclear bomb isn't hard, two random PhD students did that in the 1960s. Machining it is trickier but nothing special with modern tools.

The materials are the only really hard part, and Trump threw away the best chance we've had this century to remove the threat of a nuclear armed Iran. He had a deal on the table to hand them over, then his negotiators walked away and told Trump Iran wasn't going to budge.

I do not see how things can be turned around again but there is still hope that Iran will handover the materials, but everything Trump and Israel does is making it less and less likely.
 
IT Minion said:
No doubt in your mind, but that's a pretty iffy place and not really that closely attached to reality.

In the real world they weren't working on it. They probably do see it as the only way to stop the US and Israel attacking them, but they know they'll get hammered if they do try to build one, and to be a fully effective deterrent they'd need a few dozen and they don't have that much material.
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Real world pretty rich coming from you

Reality passed you by years ago and what’s holding your ear apart is decidedly “ iffy” at best
 
transam said:
Real world pretty rich coming from you

Reality passed you by years ago and what’s holding your ear apart is decidedly “ iffy” at best
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Im sorry, I missed the part where you quoted the IAEA confirming that Iran was working on a bomb.

Oh, yeah, because they said the opposite.
 
IT Minion said:
There is still hope, Trump had an agreement on the table to remove the Iranian enriched Uranium. Maybe someone else can get us back to where we were before he screwed it all up.

Designing a nuclear bomb isn't hard, two random PhD students did that in the 1960s. Machining it is trickier but nothing special with modern tools.

The materials are the only really hard part, and Trump threw away the best chance we've had this century to remove the threat of a nuclear armed Iran. He had a deal on the table to hand them over, then his negotiators walked away and told Trump Iran wasn't going to budge.

I do not see how things can be turned around again but there is still hope that Iran will handover the materials, but everything Trump and Israel does is making it less and less likely.
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What material?
I thought you said they weren't working on anything.
 
Lirefighter said:
What material?
I thought you said they weren't working on anything.
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Uranium. You have to refine the uranium to a high purity to make it able to explode, aka weapons grade. That's thankfully quite hard, time consuming and very obvious. They are not refining it to the last step, if they gave the mostly refined materials away then it would take even longer to get back to where they are now, but Trump threw that chance away.

They'll have the designs sitting on a hard drive somewhere and will have had them for thirty years or more.
 
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