Just 10 weeks of wheat stocks left…in the world

[ajohn]

Who said it was?

Sorry if I got that wrong but I had the impression you were thinking that.

For a daft thought - will all of the price increases boost some countries GDP. It's not just grain, oil and fertiliser it's a number of metals as well. The whole area is another weapon of sorts for countries that really do need their stuff.

An interesting aspect cropped up yesterday. A ship thought to have Russian connections was held. It was found to contain Iranian oil. The reports words. USA conviscated the lot, sold it and pocketed the profits. The same could happen with any Russian export now - I assume anyway.

 

[Odds]

An article in The Times headlined 'Russia is winning [the] battle to control the world's wheat', and highlighted just how much Putin invested in their agricultural sector. In 1999 Russia had a trade deficit for wheat of $354 million; by 2002 it had become a net exporter selling $884 million each year. By 2017 Russia had overtaken Canada and the USA to become the worlds leading net exporter of wheat, selling over $8 billion worth.*

Agriculture was not affected by sanctions because the risk of a global crisis was too high, since the importers of Russian grain are in North Africa and the Middle East. Egypt, Turkey and Iran have been the biggest importers and with drought looming in the horn of Africa, a real danger of famine is stalking Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and Eritrea where the conflict with Ethiopia will bring further disaster to people, including the Yemen where Saudi Arabia continue to fight on, regardless of world opinion. (No sanctions there, i see.)

More than 20 million tonnes of grain is rotting in silos at Ukrainian ports and the Russian treasury has cashed in to the tune of $1.9 billion this season. Ursula von der Leyen accuses Russia of 'using hunger and grain to wield power', and she's absolutely right.

We're starting to see the rise in price of all kinds of products that use wheat and the really bad news is it will get a lot worse before the end of the year. Last years harvest was completely FUBAR in many countries so cross your fingers for a good one this summer or we're all in a world of pain.

*Source: Agflow

 

[gas112]

looks like europe might be reaping what they sowed with the sanctions as they work both ways

 

[JP_]

Got a letter today telling me that the cost of electricity is going up 27% on the first of July, this is after the cost of electricity rising 30% last April.
These shortages of fuel and food are creating the biggest transfer of wealth from the consumer to the super rich in years.
It is not a coincidence that the rich have got richer while those at the bottom have got poorer.

Sounds like you've been lucky, as I thought most suppliers had already increased to the max allowed with the price cap?
Mine is 27.something p

 

[ajohn]

I spent a bit of time reading around about this..Russia did update it's grain production. I don't think that was in preparation for a war just an product that they could export if they produced enough and they did,

When the sanctions were being talked about a globalisation man appeared on BBC and pointed out that Russia is a fundamental part of it. Given exports they are. Other factors were mentioned such as western assets in Russia. Given the sanctions they can't on the face of it export anything.

Ukrain is also a major grain exporter. The war has put an end to that. I had a go at trying to find out how long grain lasts - good luck. It depends on how it is stored and can be for a very long time. Their grain tends to go to the countries you mention and arab states. Ukraine exports are a separate problem. I suspect sun flower oil figures as well. Not sure.

The other problem in the wood pile is fertiliser. It seems that a lot of the stuff for that comes out of Russia made worse by fuel prices. Reducing use reduces crop yields. Zelenskyy has banned any exports of this from Ukraine even if they could.

It looks like other countries may ban exports of items if prices start getting to a level where their population can't afford what ever it is any more. Business steps in due to profits and that is the only way they can prevent it.

Put the lot together results in some white flag wavers saying maybe we should account for Russia's worries. What has happened is entirely predictable. I'm not supporting what has happened but that is a fact.

 

[Odds]

...Ukrain is also a major grain exporter. The war has put an end to that. I had a go at trying to find out how long grain lasts - good luck. It depends on how it is stored and can be for a very long time. Their grain tends to go to the countries you mention and arab states. Ukraine exports are a separate problem. I suspect sun flower oil figures as well. Not sure.

The other problem in the wood pile is fertiliser. It seems that a lot of the stuff for that comes out of Russia made worse by fuel prices. Reducing use reduces crop yields. Zelenskyy has banned any exports of this from Ukraine even if they could.

It looks like other countries may ban exports of items if prices start getting to a level where their population can't afford what ever it is any more. Business steps in due to profits and that is the only way they can prevent it.

Put the lot together results in some white flag wavers saying maybe we should account for Russia's worries. What has happened is entirely predictable. I'm not supporting what has happened but that is a fact.

Sunflower oil is a big part of the problem facing chippys but i tend to use sesame oil, as it has a higher heat factor - but other countries are keeping what they grow. India has banned exports already and i suspect Brazil may do so too. They rely on Russian fertilisers and cannot afford to let their harvest of soy go to the wall.
Factor in the rising populations these countries are facing and this decade could well see a tipping point.
Columbia is facing an election where the run-off is between a far-left candidate and a far-right candidate. Either way, it doesn't bode well for a fragile country facing the kind of global pressure only the richest can afford to absorb.

I'm not saying it's going to be the end of the world - far from it - but a drastic change in the world order is growing towards a tipping point.

 

[securespark]

Another call from me for us as a country to be more self-reliant.

And get inventive.....we should start playing around with recipes that normally use wheat flour and see what works and what doesn't.

Obviously there are already lots of GF products out there, breads cakes and biscuits that are made with wheat flour substitutes, but I think we have a long way to go.

Necessity has forced the discovery and introduction of all sorts over the years. Maybe there could be another breakthrough in the search for a wheat substitute.

If nothing else, making GF baked goods in such massive quantities should at least bring economies of scale and reduce the silly pricing of these goods to a more realistic level.

 

[Notch7]

looks like europe might be reaping what they sowed with the sanctions as they work both ways

did you vote for Putins Brexit and Vladimir Johnson

Boris Johnson literally put the son of an ex KGB officer in the House of Lords.

UK is reaping what it sowed

 

[Notch7]

Another call from me for us as a country to be more self-reliant.

And get inventive.....we should start playing around with recipes that normally use wheat flour and see what works and what doesn't.

Obviously there are already lots of GF products out there, breads cakes and biscuits that are made with wheat flour substitutes, but I think we have a long way to go.

Necessity has forced the discovery and introduction of all sorts over the years. Maybe there could be another breakthrough in the search for a wheat substitute.

If nothing else, making GF baked goods in such massive quantities should at least bring economies of scale and reduce the silly pricing of these goods to a more realistic level.

My wife is gluten free, so we use GF pasta - tastes no different really.

but GF bread is awful, I’ve tried loads of recipes and they all taste horrible.

 

[gas112]

did you vote for Putins Brexit and Vladimir Johnson

Boris Johnson literally put the son of an ex KGB officer in the House of Lords.

UK is reaping what it sowed

well we know you voted for it , thats all that matters . Clown

 

[ReganAndCarter]

looks like europe might be reaping what they sowed with the sanctions as they work both ways

That's just it. We didn't sow enough. With a complete moron in no 10 desperate to brag about his green credentials. Suppose the 'rewilding' of farms will give his chums plenty of grouse shooting opportunities while the plebs starve. All cheer the glorious 12th!

 

[ReganAndCarter]

My wife is gluten free, so we use GF pasta - tastes no different really.

but GF bread is awful, I’ve tried loads of recipes and they all taste horrible.

Have you tried sourdough? Some people who are GF seem to be able to handle it. The Aldi stuff isn't too bad.

 

[gas112]

Have you tried sourdough? The Aldi stuff isn't too bad.

He is sour enough

 

[securespark]

My wife is gluten free, so we use GF pasta - tastes no different really.

but GF bread is awful, I’ve tried loads of recipes and they all taste horrible.

I haven't tried it, but it might be worth trying Genius Soft Brown Farmhouse.

Mrs Secure tried it a few weeks ago on a break and she said it was better than the others she had tried.

 

[ajohn]

What ever is done about any of the shortages will take time to find a solution. Work on trying different oils for commercial food production started a while ago. Increasing gas and oil supplies or finding alternate sources isn't straight forwards.

The NOS has done a survey of basic food prices. They found prices of some haven't increased. They looked for cheapest prices. One cheap option was live on sausage and chips or potatoes. Potatoes are cheaper than last year. Some stuff such as pasta has increased a lot. An observation reported, might not be the NOS, if the cheap item isn't available think +20%. My wife mentioned that stock in a local co op she uses now and again is rather odd. Gaps on shelves. She is over the moon with another. They are closing some shops so moving stock to others at cut prices then giving a % off on what ever is in the basket. No chance of living on what is in there.

It seems that mines are a problem getting grain out of Ukraine. Some mention that Russia might use it's mine sweepers and also you've made your bed so sleep in it noises. If I commented on possibilities in that area it would go down like a lead balloon so wont. TBH alternatives probably wouldn't work out anyway. Eeeeekkkkk it would mean trusting Russia and Ukraine complying.

The EU has reached an agreement on Russian oil. Land locked and arriving by pipe can continue. End result is a 90% cut. As expected time needed to change sources. Oil prices go up yet again????? One commentator reckons Russian oil is a cash machine for Hungary. Process and sell all over the EU. Typical noises - check the exports and that isn't the case. Some yes but in the scope of things not much.

The 90% cut suggests some other get it by pipe. I have no info.