What vehicle(s) do you drive on a regular basis?

[Avocet]

Cars are built everyday at a massive rate, mainly because people don't keep vehicles for as long as they used to.

That's cobblers when you actually drill down into the figures. On average, cars last LONGER these days than they used to. They pass through more owners before they're scrapped, (funny enough, precisely because they DO last longer), but what you're actually concerned with is what the car emits from the moment it leaves the factory, to the moment it gets dumped at the scrapyard. Doesn't matter in the slightest whose name is on the logbook while it's doing it - the atmosphere doesn't know or care!

What is going to emit more? A car that has done 200,000 miles during 20 years with one owner, or a car that has done 10,000 miles a year for each of 10 owners who have each only kept it for 2 years?

It is very much in fashion now to lease cars and change them every 3 years, otherwise how could any working class man afford a Tesla???

Ever since I've been old enough to drive, it's always been the case that most new cars are not bought by private individuals. Most people have always bought used. I know I have! I can't afford brand new cars. I'm therefore quite glad that someone buys new cars, and gets rid of them quite quickly, because if they didn't, there wouldn't be many second hand ones for me to choose from!

For your info, I drive a 21 year old focus 1.6 petrol.
I never kept any car for less than 10 years.
Let's see how you bend maths in your world...

OK, happy to, but I'll need a lot more data than that. I'm guessing you won't want to give me your registration number so that I can check myself, so just give me its official CO2 emissions figure (which will be on your logbook, or easily available from here):

https://vehicleenquiry.service.gov.uk/

and tell me how roughly many miles a year it has done since you got it.

 

[robinbanks]

Now you all see why I said 'I'm done'

Always amuses me when people say they're done, then post again

Is there a free pass if the post after they're done reiterates that they're done? What about if they're asked a question after they're done? Can they undo to answer it then be done again?

When comparing these things, you have to weigh up the entire picture, not just the end result.

It's difficult to factor what "entire picture" means but generally the multitude of studies that look at various aspects of what you assert matters do agree that over the course of its life the EV will have a lower environmental impact. I agree with the first part of your post where you specifically avoid mentioning which type of car you're building; manufacture of either type has a significant environmental impact, and it's generally accepted that it's heavier for an EV because of the battery.

But then you have to run them and maintain them, and it's generally accepted that the cost of running and maintaining an EV is environmentally less impactful than an ICE. This means that at some point the manufacture+use numbers will cross over, and the ICE will have cost more than the EV

You can ask an AI to summarise the studies, maybe just looking at GHG emissions for starters (you've got to limit some factors or you'll be at it a very long time, but if you want to include more, go for it); I expect you'll get a range in the answer but also expect you'll get to a reasonable and surprisingly soon (50k miles?) point that the environmental cost, when factoring in the dirtiness of the grid energy used to charge the battery and the size of the battery, for the tipping point where manufacture+use emissions for the two are equal

After this, the overall life emissions of the EV is lower.. You're also able to choose how dirty the fuel is you put in your EV if you're environmentally conscious, but you don't really have much choice for an ICE vehicle

All in, to say that for two equivalent cars, one ICE, one EV, manufacturing/driving 20 years/recycling them, I think you'd struggle to prove that the environmental cost of the EV was higher.

 

[Avocet]

Always amuses me when people say they're done, then post again

Is there a free pass if the post after they're done reiterates that they're done? What about if they're asked a question after they're done? Can they undo to answer it then be done again?


It's difficult to factor what "entire picture" means but generally the multitude of studies that look at various aspects of what you assert matters do agree that over the course of its life the EV will have a lower environmental impact. I agree with the first part of your post where you specifically avoid mentioning which type of car you're building; manufacture of either type has a significant environmental impact, and it's generally accepted that it's heavier for an EV because of the battery.

But then you have to run them and maintain them, and it's generally accepted that the cost of running and maintaining an EV is environmentally less impactful than an ICE. This means that at some point the manufacture+use numbers will cross over, and the ICE will have cost more than the EV

You can ask an AI to summarise the studies, maybe just looking at GHG emissions for starters (you've got to limit some factors or you'll be at it a very long time, but if you want to include more, go for it); I expect you'll get a range in the answer but also expect you'll get to a reasonable and surprisingly soon (50k miles?) point that the environmental cost, when factoring in the dirtiness of the grid energy used to charge the battery and the size of the battery, for the tipping point where manufacture+use emissions for the two are equal

After this, the overall life emissions of the EV is lower.. You're also able to choose how dirty the fuel is you put in your EV if you're environmentally conscious, but you don't really have much choice for an ICE vehicle

All in, to say that for two equivalent cars, one ICE, one EV, manufacturing/driving 20 years/recycling them, I think you'd struggle to prove that the environmental cost of the EV was higher.

In the UK today, I'd put the "break-even" at much less than 50,000 miles. More like 20,000 I think. However, I realise that might be open to debate. I think the 50,000 break-even was what Volvo calculated in their 2019 study, using the EU average grid carbon intensity, which included places like Poland, where most of their electricity is coal-generated. Since then though, the grid carbon intensity (both for manufacturing and for use) has come down a great deal, and we in the UK have done particularly well in reducing grid CO2 emissions.

 

[Harry Bloomfield]

All in, to say that for two equivalent cars, one ICE, one EV, manufacturing/driving 20 years/recycling them, I think you'd struggle to prove that the environmental cost of the EV was higher.

Which all becomes nonsensical, if you already own, and have owned the ICE vehicle for a few years, plus there is no actual need to replace it.

 

[Avocet]

Which all becomes nonsensical, if you already own, and have owned the ICE vehicle for a few years, plus there is no actual need to replace it.

That's why nobody is forcing you to... The ban is on the sale of NEW vehicles, solely powered by ICE engines... ten years from now!

You can keep your old ICE for the next 100 years if you want.

 

[Brigadier]

Which all becomes nonsensical, if you already own, and have owned the ICE vehicle for a few years, plus there is no actual need to replace it.

It isn't about you though, is it? It is about the vehicle itself.

It will keep on polluting as long as it exists, regardless of who owns or leases it.

 

[Munroast]

That's why nobody is forcing you to... The ban is on the sale of NEW vehicles, solely powered by ICE engines... ten years from now!

You can keep your old ICE for the next 100 years if you want.

wonder what the gov will do with fuel duties - they could force peoples hands with eye watering duties

Also could demand for petrol fall to a level where producers will also have to put up prices ?
is diesel a better bet as the haulage industry / farming / construction will still be needing that in high volume for many years

(no one will be out ploughing with an electric tractor) some of the big tractors pulling 7 furrows can use 10 gallon an hour - that would be 450 kwh battery every hour, these boys are working 16 hour days

It will keep on polluting as long as it exists, regardless of who owns or leases it.

there has to be a threshold, a miles per yea, where keeping an old more polluting vehicle is less harmful to the planet than having an entirely new one made - how many miles does an EV have to be driven before its carbon footprint is lower than an equivalent ICE

 

[Avocet]

wonder what the gov will do with fuel duties - they could force peoples hands with eye watering duties

They could indeed! It seems to have worked with fags, up to a point. I have to say I'm a bit disappointed they haven't already done that, to be honest. I absolutely accept that the country is skint and that there's limited funding available to provide positive incentives for EVs, but governments aren't usually shy about INCREASING taxes! Fuel duty has been frozen for years. I think it's time that went up a bit. They've decided to tax all EVs at £195 a year, but have chosen to do nothing about the remaining older vehicles on the road that had tax rates based only on CO2 emissions. We now have the bizarre situation where an EV responsible for maybe 20-30 grammes of CO2 per km, is paying more in "road tax" than some filthy old "Euro 3 or 4" hatchback putting out maybe 130 g/km of COs and a shed-load of NOx and particulate emissions!

Funny enough, I'm going to a meeting in London in a week or so, where they'll be asking "guys, what can we do to incentivise EV uptake"?

Also could demand for petrol fall to a level where producers will also have to put up prices ?

Yes, for some years now, the number of petrol stations has been shrinking anyway. It's hard to predict how this will play out, because as demand for petrol and diesel starts to fall, the price should go down. On the other hand, as you say, if it becomes too much of a niche product, prices might go up instead! I doubt we'll see much dramatic change for the next 20 years to be honest - unless there's another war or fuel crisis!

is diesel a better bet as the haulage industry / farming / construction will still be needing that in high volume for many years

It might be, unless you go into city centres quite often. Diesels are better on CO2, but worse on air quality, so they'll get progressively harder-hit by ULEZ charges, I imagine. A bigger problem will be that manufacturers will just stop selling diesel cars. The bottom has dropped out of the market for new ones, and they're expensive to build. Thanks to Brexit, manufacturers wanting to sell into GB from the start of February this year, are going to have to fork-out for a GB-specific type approval. It's not particularly demanding (quite a bit less demanding that the EU equivalent, in fact), but there's a cost to obtaining (and subsequently maintaining) it, so it'll just be a cost that gets passed on to GB consumers. Type approval costs are the same whether you build 10,000 vehicles a year or 10,000,000, so there will come a point where sales are too low to justify maintaining the type approval.

(no one will be out ploughing with an electric tractor) some of the big tractors pulling 7 furrows can use 10 gallon an hour - that would be 450 kwh battery every hour, these boys are working 16 hour days

But there are other ways to skin a cat...

there has to be a threshold, a miles per yea, where keeping an old more polluting vehicle is less harmful to the planet than having an entirely new one made - how many miles does an EV have to be driven before its carbon footprint is lower than an equivalent ICE

Not really. If people bought a brand new car, used it for a couple of years and then scrapped it, that would be true, but people have never done that. They buy it new, run it for a couple of years, and then pass it on to someone else, who carries on running it. NO vehicle (EV or ICE), ever removes carbon after it's been built. The only choice is how little you can add to the manufacturing emissions.

 

[Brigadier]

there has to be a threshold, a miles per yea, where keeping an old more polluting vehicle is less harmful to the planet than having an entirely new one made - how many miles does an EV have to be driven before its carbon footprint is lower than an equivalent ICE

Of course there is. No one is claiming otherwise.

It is likely to be an unrealistic scenario in which it holds true though.
After all, how realistic is it that an ICE driver who covers a handful of miles per year decides to chop it in, and instead spend tens of thousands of miles a year in their brand new EV?

 

[Brigadier]

wonder what the gov will do with fuel duties - they could force peoples hands with eye watering duties

Also could demand for petrol fall to a level where producers will also have to put up prices ?
is diesel a better bet as the haulage industry / farming / construction will still be needing that in high volume for many years

(no one will be out ploughing with an electric tractor) some of the big tractors pulling 7 furrows can use 10 gallon an hour - that would be 450 kwh battery every hour, these boys are working 16 hour days


there has to be a threshold, a miles per yea, where keeping an old more polluting vehicle is less harmful to the planet than having an entirely new one made - how many miles does an EV have to be driven before its carbon footprint is lower than an equivalent ICE

I see @Harry Bloomfield thanked you for your post.

A serious question then for Harry: why don't you use an ICE mobility scooter, if ICE is so superior to EV?

 

[Munroast]

A serious question then for Harry: why don't you use an ICE mobility scooter, if ICE is so superior to EV?

i would have thought it a rather silly question

 

[Munroast]

It is likely to be an unrealistic scenario in which it holds true though.
After all, how realistic is it that an ICE driver who covers a handful of miles per year decides to chop it in, and instead spend tens of thousands of miles a year in their brand new EV?

what on earth are you going on about

I will try and put some figures on it - a medium size EV car will emit around 12 tonne of CO2 in its cradle to gate production

My old van (never goes near a big town or city) 1.6hdi averages around 60mpg and I cover 3500 mile per year
there is about 2.6kg of co2 in a litre of diesel
3500 / 60 / 0.22 * 2.6 = 670kg of co2

if i trade my perfectly functioning van in for and EV (to be green) it will be 12 / 0.67 =18 years before the environment / atmosphere is in profit.

now let me think, as an environmentalist what should i do?

and do remember all that above is assuming the electric is CO2 free - its not, average production is running above 150 gCO₂/kWh

so lets say an EV gets 4 miles per kwh. therefore 3500 miles would be 875kwh at 150g = 130 kg of co2

so to recalculate; 12 tonne / (0.67-0.13) = 22 years pay back

 

[Avocet]

what on earth are you going on about

I will try and put some figures on it - a medium size EV car will emit around 12 tonne of CO2 in its cradle to gate production

My old van (never goes near a big town or city) 1.6hdi averages around 60mpg and I cover 3500 mile per year
there is about 2.6kg of co2 in a litre of diesel
3500 / 60 / 0.22 * 2.6 = 670kg of co2

if i trade my perfectly functioning van in for and EV (to be green) it will be 12 / 0.67 =18 years before the environment / atmosphere is in profit.

now let me think, as an environmentalist what should i do?

and do remember all that above is assuming the electric is CO2 free - its not, average production is running above 150 gCO₂/kWh

so lets say an EV gets 4 miles per kwh. therefore 3500 miles would be 875kwh at 150g = 130 kg of co2

so to recalculate; 12 tonne / (0.67-0.13) = 22 years pay back

You're not looking at the bigger picture though, and you're taking a special case.

What's your old van - A Berlingo / Partner? The manufacturing footprint of an e-Partner/Berlingo today, will be less than 12 tonnes. More like 10. Beware of taking your figures from older studies. As the grid decarbonises, so does the manufacturing footprint of the vehicle.

Next, how many miles has it done so far? Just because YOU didn't own it from new, doesn't mean it was zero emissions up to the point where you got it! And of course, the gaping hole in your calculations, is that you're taking the entire manufacturing footprint of a brand new electric van, and comparing them with... well... nothing! If you're going to make this a fair comparison, the choice isn't between trading in your old van plus buying a brand new electric van and...

...nothing.

The only fair comparison will be between trading in your old van plus buying a brand new electric van and trading in your old van plus buying a brand new ICE van - which itself, will have a manufacturing CO2 footprint. It won't be as big as the equivalent electric van - that's absolutely true, but it won't be zero either! It'll be about 2/3 - 3/4 of the electric van.

Meanwhile, who buys your old van and what do they do with it? Are they going to carry on doing 3500 miles a year?

Then of course, there's the highly unusual situation where someone with an elderly car replaces it with a brand new one. Does that often happen? No. Most people get something " a bit newer" than what they got rid of.

 

[Munroast]

my old van will probably get scrapped and most of it recycled - which is far better than a typical EV that will probably spontaneously combust releasing more toxic fumes than a small fleet of euro 3 diesels - and then there is the carbon foot print of rebuilding the property or infrastructure it may have burnt down on its untimely yet spectacular demise

has anyone noticed how the more EVs we have the worse global warming is becoming ? is there a connection ?

 

[Avocet]

my old van will probably get scrapped and most of it recycled - which is far better than a typical EV that will probably spontaneously combust releasing more toxic fumes than a small fleet of euro 3 diesels - and then there is the carbon foot print of rebuilding the property or infrastructure it may have burnt down on its untimely yet spectacular demise

has anyone noticed how the more EVs we have the worse global warming is becoming ? is there a connection ?

I take it you've given up on the carbon footprint argument then...?