Artificial intelligence

[Odds]

I wouldn't say that! Any more than what we do was ever supported by Nostradamus or Rasputin....
A bit like saying that "hello" is a precursor to rape, if you see what I mean.


You still seem to be bound up in thinking that the system is following a program. To a point yes, but it also decides what to do as it goes along. If you ask it do do the same thing several times, you can get different slightly different answers each time.

I'm more interested in an AI who can think outside its programming to make a cognitive leap of its own, such as most folk do when they grow into adulthood and begin to redefine their social/parental learning into a distinct personality of their own.

The hardware and the software are in a real sense irrelevant, it's the way of processing that gets the answer. The architecture of the neural net.
Ask AI how it's made, - you should get an explanation with a lot of layers in it. FInd out how a neural net works.
Ask Grok, or example, something like "What are the entities that are on each of the layers in an AI machine".
It'll take you through an explanation which will fit on one phone screen but have a dozen terms like neurons, activation functions like ReLu and sigmoid,, hidden layers, deconvolution layers, pooling layers, and on and on. Then, as I said before, it became clear to me how much I didn't know......

Will androids dream of electric sheep?

Check a word you will come across if you read a bit - the noun, quale, plural qualia. Something to mentally fondle, which surfaces if you ask certain questions.....

A bit like Socrates who'd describe the Aegean as 'wine red' because the idea of 'blue' didn't occur to him. Asking the right questions can be challenging...and dangerous, in his case. Do we really want a brand of AI who begins asking "why?" when all we want it to do is obey?

 

[Odds]

In other news...

Half of adults in the UK are concerned about the impact of artificial intelligence on their job, according to a poll, as union leaders call for a “step change” in the country’s approach to new technologies, says the Guardian Job losses or changes to terms and conditions were the biggest worries for the 51% of 2,600 adults surveyed for the Trades Union Congress who said they were concerned about the technology. AI is a particular concern for workers aged between 25 and 34, with nearly two-thirds (62%) of those surveyed reporting such worries. The TUC poll was released as a string of large employers – including BT, Amazon , and Microsoft – have said in recent months that advances in AI could lead them to cut jobs.

The TUC’s assistant general secretary, Kate Bell, said: “AI could have transformative potential, and if developed properly, workers can benefit from the productivity gains this technology may bring. The alternative is bleak. Left unmanaged and in the wrong hands, the AI revolution could entrench rampant inequality as jobs are degraded or displaced, and shareholders get richer.”

 

[Justin Passing]

I'm more interested in an AI who can think outside its programming to make a cognitive leap of its own, such as most folk do when they grow into adulthood and begin to redefine their social/parental learning into a distinct personality of their own.

It does do that. AI thinks all around an issue. You must have noticed how it makes comments.

Will androids dream of electric sheep?

Yes,

Do we really want a brand of AI who begins asking "why?" when all we want it to do is obey?

Yes we do. It gives the answer, too. GPT5 does that. It infers what drives your question, and says " would you like me to suggest......"

 

[Justin Passing]

I don't have a reference, but in China there is a big problem with unemployment in new graduates. It is partly explained explicitly - AI knows everything they know, and is cheaper.
It's the mechanics which are behind. Plumbers aren't very knowledge loaded, compared with a doctor, say, but getting a robot to pick up the right bits and pieces and put them together? We're not there yet. SHouldn't be too long. Have you seen artificial muscles, they're astonishing?

Kate Bell, I'd say has a good grasp on the situation - is IS bleaker than she suggests, though - I've alluded to why - plumbers will not plumb, when they can earn more from their trading bot.

 

[Justin Passing]

The question I ask, is what is AI? I moved into the digital age, then came the analogue age, well at least 253 steps. As it stands I still have not worked out the metric age.

I am told all is to the power or root 3, so there is no such thing as a centimetre, so what does cm stand for on my ruler? Seems the Erg has gone, and 2πNT/33,000 is gone.

So I try to get into the new system, energy is calories or joules, so where did the kWh come from?

So I can see the whole point in some device learning what you need, but if I look at Nest Gen 3 AI generated sequence for my central heating, it is clear it needs to go back to school.

Each time I try to use AI it fails, I thought Oh what a great idea, my central heating will auto close down when I leave the house, and restart before my return, not really AI it simply needs to see distance from home increasing so switch off heating, or at least turn it down, and distance decreasing so turn it up again. Total failure.

Back in the 90's we had telemetry to tell us how much electric was being used at a distance from the device, we used it with pumping stations on a regular basis, so what is "Smart" about a smart meter? It may be more accurate to the old system, but we have had what it does for years.

The digital age started with morse code, well really before that, the system used by Napoleon seems to have been used by Terry Pratchett disc world novels' and called the clacks, which pre-dates morse code, as does fax.

I was taught how to program PLC's, which speeds up complex installations, but it is hardly AI, to my mind AI needs some learning, so what have I got which learns? And the answer seems to be Nest Gen 3, which is useless, it does not matter how well it learns, the lack of using info from the TRV heads, means it is useless.

As to controlling a car, the big question is, can we afford to allow it to learn?

We look at the railways, easy, they are on rails, so no worry about keeping to lanes, should be easy, so why did the Cambrian line have a head on crash? If they can't get railways to work, clearly not time to try to do it with roads.

I know you have tongue in cheek, but the point is that AI isn't done getting better, yet. It's utterly hopeless for all kinds of things. Like a baby is.
AI gets more competent on the processing side, at a rate of 5x a year.. That's 10 million in 10 years. But YOU have to connect your TRVs to your boiler, and that. If you can't , wait a few years, and.....

 

[ericmark]

But YOU have to connect your TRVs to your boiler, and that.

I do wonder what intelligence is required to work a TRV. I am told some do work out how long it takes to heat the room, and will start heating the room that much before the time set.

But in the main, they are quite basic, and most of the so-called intelligent devices have been around for a long time, and nothing really intelligent about them.

 

[Justin Passing]

I do wonder what intelligence is required to work a TRV. I am told some do work out how long it takes to heat the room, and will start heating the room that much before the time set.

But in the main, they are quite basic, and most of the so-called intelligent devices have been around for a long time, and nothing really intelligent about them.

Yes you have to buy controllable TRV's.
You COULD have 3 term PID control on each TRV, linked into the boiler etc etc. Nothing AI there, - but quite complicated for bugger all benefit in most cases.
Especially if you open the door to the room...

 

[ericmark]

I do have electronic TRV heads,

5 x eQ-3 bluetooth only, programmable, so rooms only heated when required, but bluetooth will only work with one phone, and have to be close to it.

3 x Energenie should work with Nest, but don't, they can't be manually set, so in many ways the eQ-3 are better, but does show current and well as target, the eQ-3 only shows target, they connect to a hub which in turn connects to internet.

1 x Kasa, can be manually set at the unit, but eats batteries, should work with a wall thermostat, but the wall thermostat like the Energenie has to be hard-wired, so just connects to the hub and internet like the Energenie, does give more info as to what the room has done, but non have what I would call intelligent functions.

The last is Drayton Wiser, this is the only one which can fire the boiler, as with the Kasa it gives charts showing how it has done, however the way the plumbing has been done, does not help, the radiators are on outside walls, this means cold weather cools the TRV before it has cooled the room, so when the heating is still not running the set temperature needs to be lower to compensate for being close to outside wall, but when the heating is running the thermals generated means it needs to be set higher.

The others have the same problem, but they don't fire the boiler, so set at running temperature is OK, so all this working out when to switch on to get room to temperature on time, is a bit pointless, as have to manually change the temperatures or boiler runs when not needed.

With mother's house all radiators were on internal walls, this means the TRV worked spot on, but the wall thermostat was colder than it should have been, so if radiator on outside wall then need wall thermostats, and if inside wall then TRV's, but there is no device easy fitted to work the TRV from a remote sensor.

Also, TRV's do not move around the house, they stay fixed to the radiator, so why can't you get mains powered versions? Fitting 20 x AA batteries every Autumn is a pain, and worried about batteries leaking, and not really good for the environment to use batteries, OK, in some locations I would have a problem as retro-fit getting power to them, so some would need to be battery powered, but there is no option to fit either, mains powered or versions with remote sensors, which still connect to same hub as the battery powered versions.

I like the way my Nest Gen 3 shows me as I walk past what the room temperature is, I need to manually press a button on the Wiser wall thermostat or use the app, and also like I can read Nest with my PC without an emulator, just a pity Nest is such a useless thermostat. And useless information given, it says Energy History on the app, but all it shows is when Nest called for the boiler to run. OK my boiler simply on/off, but most boilers modulate, so run time tells you nothing, and my boiler has two hubs and a thermostat which can all fire it up, so run time for one wall thermostat is useless.

What would likely help is run time for DHW, I had it drummed into me that gas is cheaper than electric, don't use the immersion heater, I assumed oil was the same, but my system does not have a tank thermostat for the oil so to work out what used, run time of the boiler, since it does not modulate, so 20 kW boiler and by experiment we found it would only run for around 20 minutes before boilers internal thermostat turned it off, and having 4 x ½ hour slots per week gave use warm water in the summer, little worried about legionnaires but never got around to finding a wireless thermostat, which if I had would have cost more to run.

The problem of using a boiler, be it for a railway engine or central heating, is the cost of the match, i.e. what it costs to heat the boiler before you get any useful work from it. We have energy to heat the boiler, and any pipe work between boiler and holding tank, before anything comes out of the taps.

So to heat DHW with oil, used around 30 kWh per week, and the iboost+ tells me with electric at a higher temperature so no worry about legionnaires, it uses 12 kWh per week, it cost 15p/kWh in lost revenue as not exporting it, which is about double the cost of oil, but the losses as so much reduced, this time of year I would be thinking of topping up oil, would be around 1/3 full, using an immersion it is around 3/4 full, that is a lot of oil, does not take much intelligence to work out, using electric is cheaper to using oil.

As to combi-boilers, son changed the main 7 instant gas boiler and central heating boiler for a combination type, with old boiler run a bowl of water, and started cold then got hot, so net result water right temperature to wash dishes, now one has to run half a bowl of cold water away to get a full bowl of water to wash dishes, that's a lot of wasted water, and likely a lot of wasted heat, the boiler heats a small amount of water which with a heat exchanger heats the DHW, where the old boiler heated DHW direct, and this waste is every time one wants DHW, maybe 20 times a day, that is one heck of a waste of energy.

 

[catlad]

high intelligence

Like those that have invented nuclear weapons, with the capability to now destroy life on earth.

 

[Justin Passing]

I do have electronic TRV heads,

5 x eQ-3 bluetooth only, programmable, so rooms only heated when required, but bluetooth will only work with one phone, and have to be close to it.

3 x Energenie should work with Nest, but don't, they can't be manually set, so in many ways the eQ-3 are better, but does show current and well as target, the eQ-3 only shows target, they connect to a hub which in turn connects to internet.

1 x Kasa, can be manually set at the unit, but eats batteries, should work with a wall thermostat, but the wall thermostat like the Energenie has to be hard-wired, so just connects to the hub and internet like the Energenie, does give more info as to what the room has done, but non have what I would call intelligent functions.

The last is Drayton Wiser, this is the only one which can fire the boiler, as with the Kasa it gives charts showing how it has done, however the way the plumbing has been done, does not help, the radiators are on outside walls, this means cold weather cools the TRV before it has cooled the room, so when the heating is still not running the set temperature needs to be lower to compensate for being close to outside wall, but when the heating is running the thermals generated means it needs to be set higher.

The others have the same problem, but they don't fire the boiler, so set at running temperature is OK, so all this working out when to switch on to get room to temperature on time, is a bit pointless, as have to manually change the temperatures or boiler runs when not needed.

With mother's house all radiators were on internal walls, this means the TRV worked spot on, but the wall thermostat was colder than it should have been, so if radiator on outside wall then need wall thermostats, and if inside wall then TRV's, but there is no device easy fitted to work the TRV from a remote sensor.

Also, TRV's do not move around the house, they stay fixed to the radiator, so why can't you get mains powered versions? Fitting 20 x AA batteries every Autumn is a pain, and worried about batteries leaking, and not really good for the environment to use batteries, OK, in some locations I would have a problem as retro-fit getting power to them, so some would need to be battery powered, but there is no option to fit either, mains powered or versions with remote sensors, which still connect to same hub as the battery powered versions.

I like the way my Nest Gen 3 shows me as I walk past what the room temperature is, I need to manually press a button on the Wiser wall thermostat or use the app, and also like I can read Nest with my PC without an emulator, just a pity Nest is such a useless thermostat. And useless information given, it says Energy History on the app, but all it shows is when Nest called for the boiler to run. OK my boiler simply on/off, but most boilers modulate, so run time tells you nothing, and my boiler has two hubs and a thermostat which can all fire it up, so run time for one wall thermostat is useless.

What would likely help is run time for DHW, I had it drummed into me that gas is cheaper than electric, don't use the immersion heater, I assumed oil was the same, but my system does not have a tank thermostat for the oil so to work out what used, run time of the boiler, since it does not modulate, so 20 kW boiler and by experiment we found it would only run for around 20 minutes before boilers internal thermostat turned it off, and having 4 x ½ hour slots per week gave use warm water in the summer, little worried about legionnaires but never got around to finding a wireless thermostat, which if I had would have cost more to run.

The problem of using a boiler, be it for a railway engine or central heating, is the cost of the match, i.e. what it costs to heat the boiler before you get any useful work from it. We have energy to heat the boiler, and any pipe work between boiler and holding tank, before anything comes out of the taps.

So to heat DHW with oil, used around 30 kWh per week, and the iboost+ tells me with electric at a higher temperature so no worry about legionnaires, it uses 12 kWh per week, it cost 15p/kWh in lost revenue as not exporting it, which is about double the cost of oil, but the losses as so much reduced, this time of year I would be thinking of topping up oil, would be around 1/3 full, using an immersion it is around 3/4 full, that is a lot of oil, does not take much intelligence to work out, using electric is cheaper to using oil.

As to combi-boilers, son changed the main 7 instant gas boiler and central heating boiler for a combination type, with old boiler run a bowl of water, and started cold then got hot, so net result water right temperature to wash dishes, now one has to run half a bowl of cold water away to get a full bowl of water to wash dishes, that's a lot of wasted water, and likely a lot of wasted heat, the boiler heats a small amount of water which with a heat exchanger heats the DHW, where the old boiler heated DHW direct, and this waste is every time one wants DHW, maybe 20 times a day, that is one heck of a waste of energy.

I didn't really read all that, it hasn't got much to do with the topic - belongs in Plumbing & Heating I think.

 

[ericmark]

I didn't really read all that, it hasn't got much to do with the topic - belongs in Plumbing & Heating I think.

Sorry, my point is, many of the items claimed to have artificial intelligence, are really quite old technology, and do not really use any intelligence.

 

[Justin Passing]

That is true. Students were programming 3 term control from around the 60's, though it was a pre-war idea.

Is it AI, or not??

¶ Traditional computers are deterministic, fully predictable. ALways the same output for a given input set.

¶ AI machines learn patterns from data,, can be (re)trained how to do something, and are probabilistic. They can create and generalize. They give outputs based on experience.
They use neural nets; knowledge is stored in weights across the network. During training, the network adjusts the weights. It uses statistical associations across millions or billions of parameters. Though it COULD keep a record of which of its neurons does what, it doesn't, so observers don't know exaclty how eg it would come to a judgment like for example, "that looks like a cancer".
If you give AI new facts, you don't have to reprogram it. It does that for itself. This is something like the way a human brain works.

So, whatever sensors and tranducers you have, it's the processing that's done in a different way.

The first neural nets appeared in the 80's. The 90's saw statistical outcomes being used, and a big step called SVM, using regression analysys and that. The idea of layers was around 2010 and then the architecture becamet bigger, and deeper, and more brain- inspired.

Processors have evolved from the Von Neumann architecture I learned about when I was 12, to Tensor Processors (TPUs) designed for deep learning. They're very good at matrix calulations. The stuff MATLAB is good for, if you ever used that. Neuromorphic processors are more like a brain in operation with neurons and synapses. They process millions of neuron operations simultaneously. Specific NVIDIA processors are optimised for specific architectures, which is interesting. cf exports to Chyeena and getting them to standardise on one (western) type.

In short, AI uses Training to learn patterns in the data from the data, altering its parameters so it can make better predictions.
Then, Inferencing uses what it's learned to make predictions from new unseen data.

 

[morqthana]

It hasn't been mentioned in the forum much, which is odd perhaps for something which is about to take over our lives.

Define "take over our lives".

 

[morqthana]

I wouldn't know what AI was even if it jumped up and bit me on the 'arris .. With the few years I probably have left, I can't see AI bothering me.

Unless, in those few years, you'd like to not be lied to and deceived on an industrial scale by malign people who so do not have your interests at heart.

 

[Justin Passing]

Define "take over our lives".

No I won't define it, look it up for yourself.
But do you remember the days before computers when digital data processing was the the totaliser in the cash till?
Tax records were on the cheque stub.

Then came computers which took over. - spawning the Hale and Pace sketches with the quote "Computer says "NO"".
Soon, all those computers will be 10, 100 times more capable than you are. There to help you of course. And get all they can from you, of course.
And go wrong.


Got kids? What jobs are they going to be good for ex college, that an AI machine won't do better.
For a little while some will be able to use the AI tools, then they'll be out of date. The very brightest will be of use, not so much the rest.

* Before we get to some sort of superintelligence, AI "Agents" will be really really good at a particular job, and they'll get linked together. Look them up. Or ask ChatGPT to tell you about them.