Prior To Brexit....

[wobs]

You mean that inscrutible comment about being at the 'back of the queue'? Did you believe it? What did it even mean? Do you think it carries any weight at all (he won't be president much longer!) Did you miss what the German finance minister said prior to the referndum, and then admitted he was told to say it by George Osborne?
The comments were as simplistic as they were meaningless. Nobody can see 10 years ahead, least not in the borderline-random world of economics.

They are unpredictable, true, but some issues are predictable up to a point. Such as the difficulty of trade negotiations. We know this from experience. We can look at other countries for precedents.

 

[handyjack]

Pro-Brexit JCB quits CBI over lobby group’s Remain stance

The construction equipment company, which employs about 6,000 people in Britain, ended its membership of the CBI following historic vote to leave the EU, said a person briefed on the matter.

The person said the decision, first reported by Sky News, was because of the business organisation’s Remain stance ahead of the referendum.

A CBI spokesman said: “It’s always a shame to see any member leave the CBI, but we recognise that businesses have competing priorities and we respect that.”

A JCB spokesman said: “I can confirm that JCB is ending its membership of the CBI.”

During the campaign, the CBI warned that withdrawal from the bloc would cause a “serious economic shock”, potentially costing the country £100bn and almost one million jobs by 2020.

https://www.ft.com/content/89964b2c-8f37-11e6-8df8-d3778b55a923

 

[Roger928]

JCB exports are worldwide. They don't need eu conmen dictating to them.

As for the CBI, what are they other than a group of pen pushers feathering their own nests?

 

[noseall]

JCB exports are worldwide. They don't need eu conmen dictating to them.

Great statement. Do JCB type companies, i.e. those with true global demand, make up a large proportion of UK export businesses? Or are there a larger proportion of businesses that rely heavily on Europe?

 

[Doggit]

Has anyone noticed that Himmy isn't posting, but Wobs seems to have taken his place

 

[EFLImpudence]

Has anyone noticed that Himmy isn't posting

Perhaps he's píssed off the warders with his constant verbal diarrhea and they've banned his PC use for the day.

 

[blightymam]

Perhaps he's píssed off the warders with his constant verbal diarrhea and they've banned his PC use for the day.

He got banned last night..
Came back this morning under an almost new name, had his posts removed from this morning and not posted since. Not sure if been banned again or just licking his wounds.

 

[EFLImpudence]

Oh Good. Being ignored, I hadn't noticed.

 

[blightymam]

Am sure he'll be back and you'll have to ignore him all over again.... enjoy the peace while it lasts!

How long does it take to get a new IP address? 20 mins?

 

[Doggit]

But I'm sure he's back as Wobs, same style, same bullet points, same attitude to everybody else, or does Himmy give lessons.

 

[Gerrydelasel]

Norway pays roughly the same per capita than the UK.

I think everyone would agree it's the gross figure that counts.

And the UK get grants from the EU for economic development.

No, that's our own money being given back to us. How gracious.

We are a small player on the world stage. Hadn't you noticed?

No, not at all. We're pretty much always top ten for science, industry, universities, healthcare, economy, democracy, quality of life, heritage, freedom, liberalism, eco stuff, welfare... Just how big do we need to be before you think we are a big player?

You are aware that shorter leads on kettles came about from the BBC's Watchdog aren't you?

Ah, so it was us who set that safety standard after all. Once again, no need for the EU.

 

[wobs]

I think everyone would agree it's the gross figure that counts.

No. Net contribution would tells us far more, as it would include rebates.

No, that's our own money being given back to us. How gracious.

Do you want to discuss how the EU has been investing in deprived areas of the UK that our Government has neglected?

No, not at all. We're pretty much always top ten for science, industry, universities, healthcare, economy, democracy, quality of life, heritage, freedom, liberalism, eco stuff, welfare... Vietnam is a small player. Poland is a small player. Britain is not a small player. Britain is Colonel Mustard, not that

We are far below China Japan, the EU, and the US, who we will want to be negotiating with for new trade deals (other than the EU).

Our top ten exports go to:

1. United States: US$66.5 billion (14.5% of total UK exports)
2. Germany: $46.4 billion (10.1%)
3. Switzerland: $32.2 billion (7%)
4. China: $27.4 billion (5.9%)
5. France: $27 billion (5.9%)
6. Netherlands: $26.6 billion (5.8%)
7. Ireland: $25.5 billion (5.5%)
8. Belgium: $17.8 billion (3.9%)
9. Spain: $13.1 billion (2.8%)
10. Italy: $12.9 billion (2.8%)

So mostly the EU, China, and the US, who all dwarf us. We would have little negotiating power in this regard. See Switzerland's experience with China for an eg.

Ah, so it was us who set that safety standard after all. Once again, no need for the EU.

You want it both ways. Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that.

If it came from the EU, you don't want it, but if we brought it about, its suddenly OK?

What about standards that have improved safety/ environmental standards that derive from the EU, that have benefitted us? Are they somehow inferior because it came from a different office? I contend that the EU has brought much improvements to our standards. That while not perfect, have forced the UK to up its game both at home and in its manufacturing standards.

History shows us that if we never joined the EU, we would have lower standards (eg. bathing water), be poorer (numerous academic and business sources agree on this), and have less protection, both for our products, and workers rights.

Your opposition just seems to be based upon the idea of you don't like someone else making the rules, so you want your whole country to take a huge economic hit to satisfy some nationalistic pride. This seems irrational to me, and why it comes across as ideological.

PS. I note that you have maintained a civilised level of debate, which is interesting, as other Brexit supporters here just launch into abuse/shaming language/"banter". Always far more constructive.

 

[wobs]

Conclusions

EU Member States would retain significant control over the withdrawal negotiations, despite the Commission having responsibility for their conduct.

29. The European Parliament’s right not to give its consent to the adoption of the withdrawal agreement would give it considerable influence.

30. One of the most important aspects of the withdrawal negotiations would be determining the acquired rights of the two million or so UK citizens living in other Member States, and equally of EU citizen living in the UK. This would be a complex and daunting task.



39. The Member States would retain significant control over the
negotiations on a future relationship. We note the potential for groups of Member States vetoing certain elements of the agreement to secure better deals on others. This could mean, in effect, that nothing would be agreed until everything was agreed.

40. The European Parliament would have the right to withhold giving
consent to the adoption of the agreement on the new relationship, giving it considerable influence.


It is likely that an agreement on the UK’s future relationship with the EU would be negotiated in tandem with the withdrawal agreement. It would be in the interests of all parties to coordinate the negotiations closely.

And at the end:

The length of the negotiations

11. No firm prediction can be made as to how long the negotiations on withdrawal and a new relationship would take if the UK were to vote to leave the EU. It is clear, though, that they would take several years—trade deals between the
EU and non-EU States have taken between four and nine years on average.

12. It would be in the interests of the UK and its citizens, and in the interests of the remaining Member States and their citizens, to achieve a negotiated settlement. This would almost certainly necessitate extending the negotiating period beyond the two years provided for in Article 50. (Paragraph 55)

13. While it is possible that the European Council would agree to an extension, the requirement for unanimity means that such agreement cannot be guaranteed.

14. Were no extension to be agreed, the UK would be likely to trade on World Trade Organization terms, placing tariffs on imports from the EU; the EU would place tariffs on imports from the UK; and the acquired rights of millions of individuals and companies would remain unresolved.

So they hold the cards, it will likely take years, and we are in a pickle.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldselect/ldeucom/138/138.pdf

 

[Gerrydelasel]

Do you want to discuss how the EU has been investing in deprived areas of the UK that our Government has neglected?

If the industry hadn't been asset stripped and moved to Europe maybe they wouldnt be so deprived in the first place?

We would have little negotiating power in this regard.

Then we could join only the EEC but not the EU, much like China is a member of APEC.

If it came from the EU, you don't want it, but if we brought it about, its suddenly OK? What about standards that have improved safety/ environmental standards that derive from the EU, that have benefitted us? Are they somehow inferior because it came from a different office?

No, my objection is that we are forced to accept them whether they are superior or not. "It's for your own good" is OK for children, but not adults. We only have a fractional input into the drafting of EU laws, and once accepted there is virtually no chance of modifying them (rachet effect). I consider a bad parliament better than a good king.

History shows us that if we never joined the EU, we would have lower standards, be poorer, and have less protection, both for our products, and workers rights.

I think you're well aware that history cannot possibly show what might have happened. Nevertheless I concede that the EU has not hindered us becoming more prosperous since the 1970s. But looking at what the EU has become now (a union too close), I think it's time to jump ship and say 'so long, and thanks for all the fish' (fisheries pun notwithstanding).

Your opposition just seems to be based upon the idea of you don't like someone else making the rules,so you want your whole country to take a huge economic hit to satisfy some nationalistic pride. This seems irrational to me, and why it comes across as ideological.

You're right I don't like other countries telling us what to do; I would prefer the natural competition of the markets to be what impels us to improve standards. Yes, sometimes we may lag behind the progressive choices of the EU (5p bag charges finally!), but inevitably we would end up leading on other matters. And I don't believe the economic hit will be as bad as you say; I don't see Britain as globally small and helpless the way you do. I also suspect many of the places where it might turn out bad will be industry sectors that need to be reformed anyway (in my opion), e.g. lose some city financial services, grow some provincial manufacturing instead. One city financier may make the same money for the country in GDP terms as a hundred labourers in a factory, but I consider the latter to be more important than the former, for various reasons.
It seems your arguments for staying in the EU are 1) that they force us to adopt better standards and 2) it increases the GDP.
But we are forced to accept the EU's idea of what is better, not our own. And I think democratic sovereignty is more closely linked to personal happiness than GDP.

 

[Gerrydelasel]

I think it's important not to get too obsessed with trade agreements. Remember, countries don't actually need trade agreements to trade (you can in even have informal agreements!). Many of the cheapest and best products already come from countries that the EU does not have trade agreements with, or which it has only recently made agreements with despite us buying their cool stuff for donkey's years. Best tools? American. Best wine? New world. Best cars? Far east. Cheapest everyday goods? China. Best castings? India. And so on. What does the EU produce that is better or cheaper than what the rest of the world supplies? Luxury cars is all I can think of.