Trumps attack on Iran - 2026 edition

[JohnD]

Donald Trump says, indeed....

"Donald Trump says US close to deal with Iran and calls off strikes​

Markets rally and oil prices dip as US president claims agreement will reopen Strait of Hormuz"
FT.com


But does anybody actually believe he's telling the truth (this time)?

There's just time for him and his buddies to place their orders before bad news comes out over the weekend, as usual, and the markets crash on Monday, as usual.

Meanwhile he's ****ed away most of the US Strategic Reserve of oil, which was intended to keep the country strong in times of war and crisis. Not by keeping the country strong in time of war and crisis, but exported to make money and depress the world price.

In other news, China has spent 20 years building alternative energy sources. They lead the world in solar and nukes. The fuel costs nothing, now the infrastructure is built, and every GW saves a barrel at little marginal cost.

 

[JohnD]

"US crude exports have surged 2mn barrels a day since the war began. Washington calls it energy dominance. Look closer and it is something else: America is exporting its insurance policy. The extra barrels come not from new production but from storage — the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to about 342mn barrels, the lowest level since August 1983, and is on track to hit a minimum level for operations by the end of summer. The buffer built over 50 years to protect against exactly this crisis is being shipped abroad. This is not supply responding to price. It is inventory responding to price — and inventory, unlike production, has a bottom.

Worse, the policy is self-defeating. A price signal is a mechanism that triggers investment and adjusts demand. Every barrel released to suppress the price delays the capital investment that would build actual energy security. The west is not building the New Joule Order. It is borrowing against it, with the bill arriving in the third quarter — when cooling for air conditioning, agriculture and driving demand add 5mn to 6mn barrels a day back into a market where the buffers are gone and its largest flexible consumer has already used its option."

FT.com

 

[fillyboy]

In other news, China has spent 20 years building alternative energy sources. They lead the world in solar and nukes. The fuel costs nothing, now the infrastructure is built, and every GW saves a barrel at little marginal cost.

They're currently consuming 16 million barrels of oil per day, 2nd only to the USA. The majority is imported, largely from Iran, less so from Venezuela recently.

 

[JohnD]

They're currently consuming 16 million barrels of oil per day, 2nd only to the USA. The majority is imported, largely from Iran, less so from Venezuela recently.

So just think how pleased they must be, to be leading the world in electric cars, as well as renewable energy.

While Trump flogs his nation's Strategic Reserve to keep the world price down, is it a mistake to buy?

More of a mistake to sell it, perhaps.

"The consensus explanation for falling Chinese energy imports is “demand destruction” — the world’s largest importer buckling. The reality is the opposite. Faced with fuel prices up to 20 per cent, Chinese drivers charge instead of fill: highway EV charging surged 56 per cent year on year over the May Day holiday. Industrial users have switched to domestic coal. In aggregate, China can flex perhaps 2mn barrels a day of demand at will — flexibility no other large economy can approach. What looks like a collapsing customer is a customer that built an exit and is using it."

FT.com

 

[JohnD]

Thank god - he’s got a deal and the strikes are off.

TACO’s for tea.

Trump says he has 'cancelled' strikes against Iran after threatening 'very hard' attack tonight

Trump says discussions with Iran have been "brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved" but Tehran says nothing has been finalised.

www.bbc.co.uk

"There was no official response from Iran. Tasnim, an Iranian news egency affiliated to the powerful Revolutionary Guards, said that until Iran announces any potential understanding, any statements by Trump about this matter should be viewed as part of the same messaging he has had previously."

FT.com

 

[fillyboy]

"There was no official response from Iran. Tasnim, an Iranian news egency affiliated to the powerful Revolutionary Guards, said that until Iran announces any potential understanding, any statements by Trump about this matter should be viewed as part of the same messaging he has had previously."

FT.com

Unofficial word is deal, or Karg Island is turned into dust.

 

[JohnD]

Unofficial word is deal, or Karg Island is turned into dust.

That's an interesting rumour spread by Trumpists.

Some questions for anyone who is not a supporter of Trump:

From what you have seen in the last two months:

- how many times has Trump said Iran is about to give in to his demands?

- will attacking Karg increase oil exports?

- have attacks caused Iran to surrender, or to fight back?

- has America increased the number of expensive assets within easy reach of Iran?

- how many casualties can America accept with equanimity before running away?

 

[JohnD]

I believe the consensus is it put it back by a year at least.

But Trump said it had been destroyed.

Was he telling the truth that time?

 

[JohnD]

Talks between Iran and the US scheduled for Thursday, I think these will be the final talks before Trump loses patience.

The three demands from the US involve.
Nuclear.
Ballistic weapons programme.
Funding of terror proxies in the region.

Iran won't agree.

Did he "lose patience" in February?

 

[JohnD]

He was meant to be making an address today but he was a no show. he was in secure bunker yesterday, maybe they tried to move him. They've taken out a lot of IRGC leaders so if the big man is dead, it could be all over very quickly.

Killing the leaders has led to harder-line leaders being promoted to fill the vacancies.

I wonder if Trump read his briefing paper warning of that.

 

[JohnD]

I think the Shah's son will be involved as a unifying figure and temporary leader until free elections can be held. I'm really getting the impression that both Israel and the US are anxious that the Iranian people can plot their own path, and for all the talk on here about Trump, the Iranians are literally dancing in the streets shouting we love you Trump.
The danger is that some might want revenge on the IRGC which could get messy.
Trump will offer to help the people but it will probably involve an oil deal.

Fantasy.

 

[Odds]

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, published on Thursday, the Washington-based institution cut its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5 percent from the 2.9 percent it had predicted in January, citing surging energy prices, rising inflation and higher borrowing costs. The World Bank estimates that Brent crude prices — the international oil benchmark — will average $94 a barrel this year, 36 percent above last year’s average. Fertiliser prices are forecast to increase significantly this year, with knock-on effects for food prices.

Overall, the closure of the strategic waterway will help to push global inflation to 4 percent this year, a substantial increase from last year’s rate of 3.3 percent. However, the World Bank cautions that global growth could plummet to as low as 1.3 percent this year, should energy supply disruptions worsen, with inflation pushing to 4.4 percent. Al Jazeera

The global oil price is like a barometer, and with a severe El Niño on the way global economies are likely to be under the weather for some time to come. The trump effect blows harder each passing day. Better get a bigger brolly if you're playing the S. markets.

 

[IT Minion]

Did he "lose patience" in February?

And what's he going to do? The only levers he has are ones he doesn't want to use.

 

[blup]

People are still trying to work out the logic of Trumpf's u turns, there is none, he is applying the negotiating techniques that helped him get rich in New York real estate, Its different dealing with the Irannians, especially when you blew the first lot up under the guise of face to face negotiations.

 

[transam]

Negotiations ? They seem to be negotiating about further negotiations and calling it some type memorandum of under standing

Load of baloney imo the mad mullers cannot be trusted

Bomb all there infrastructure imo