I am starting a new thread to avoid confusion.
I am glad you posted today because I have been bearing in mind your post of the 14th.
Would you please tell me where I am going wrong.
Your post of the 14th.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Click on the link and then the dates and you can see all the daily figures.
Quadrupling every fortnight seems a strange choice - but using that.
3 May 1,597
17 May 1,979 x1.24
31 May 3,383 x1.71
14 June 7,742 x2.29
28 June 22,868 x2.95
So, they were not quadrupling every fortnight - and
5th July is only one week from today (28th) therefore we hope it will be a long way short of 112,000 - we shall see by how many.
Were you just trying to scare everyone?
The worst day of the previous wave was 67,803.
If it is worse, what does that say about the measures taken?
Are there more tests being carried out now?
Yes, 2.95 is less than 4 - but a lot more than when you made the prediction.22,868 Cases today. So slightly less than 4x.
You said 112,000 on the 5th.Still on track to around 75,000 daily cases for the 12th.
I am glad you posted today because I have been bearing in mind your post of the 14th.
Would you please tell me where I am going wrong.
Your post of the 14th.
Why did you choose the 5th of July?So, what's the expectations for the 5th of July?
Ok. I don't know about that.By then we should have had another 14,000,000 jabs, which is enough to get up to 58%+ of the UK fully vaccinated.
Using the worldometer figures:We're currently quadrupling case numbers every fortnight so we should have roughly 28,000 cases a day in a fortnight and 112,000 by the 5th. Which is far higher than the worst of the second wave, but we are expecting fewer hospitalisations or deaths for a given number of cases.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Click on the link and then the dates and you can see all the daily figures.
Quadrupling every fortnight seems a strange choice - but using that.
3 May 1,597
17 May 1,979 x1.24
31 May 3,383 x1.71
14 June 7,742 x2.29
28 June 22,868 x2.95
So, they were not quadrupling every fortnight - and
5th July is only one week from today (28th) therefore we hope it will be a long way short of 112,000 - we shall see by how many.
Were you just trying to scare everyone?
The worst day of the previous wave was 67,803.
If it is worse, what does that say about the measures taken?
Are there more tests being carried out now?
Probably.At some point the growth has to stop, either because the vaccinations and infections have starved Covid-19 of victims or because we've stepped up controls. The vaccinations are slowing that spread and it'll continue to be slowed as we get more people covered but we're talking about a gradual reduction. I don't know if we'd consider opening up more with spiraling case numbers but it seems unlikely.
Another thing is that we're probably going to go back on every other country's equivalent of the red list. If some countries allow vaccinated people in then that's fine but if they don't have that flexibility foreign holidays are likely to be difficult.