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I am starting a new thread to avoid confusion.

22,868 Cases today. So slightly less than 4x.
Yes, 2.95 is less than 4 - but a lot more than when you made the prediction.

Still on track to around 75,000 daily cases for the 12th.
You said 112,000 on the 5th.



I am glad you posted today because I have been bearing in mind your post of the 14th.

Would you please tell me where I am going wrong.


Your post of the 14th.
So, what's the expectations for the 5th of July?
Why did you choose the 5th of July?

By then we should have had another 14,000,000 jabs, which is enough to get up to 58%+ of the UK fully vaccinated.
Ok. I don't know about that.

We're currently quadrupling case numbers every fortnight so we should have roughly 28,000 cases a day in a fortnight and 112,000 by the 5th. Which is far higher than the worst of the second wave, but we are expecting fewer hospitalisations or deaths for a given number of cases.
Using the worldometer figures:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Click on the link and then the dates and you can see all the daily figures.

upload_2021-6-28_19-4-26.png


Quadrupling every fortnight seems a strange choice - but using that.

3 May 1,597
17 May 1,979 x1.24
31 May 3,383 x1.71
14 June 7,742 x2.29
28 June 22,868 x2.95

So, they were not quadrupling every fortnight - and
5th July is only one week from today (28th) therefore we hope it will be a long way short of 112,000 - we shall see by how many.

Were you just trying to scare everyone?

The worst day of the previous wave was 67,803.
If it is worse, what does that say about the measures taken?
Are there more tests being carried out now?


At some point the growth has to stop, either because the vaccinations and infections have starved Covid-19 of victims or because we've stepped up controls. The vaccinations are slowing that spread and it'll continue to be slowed as we get more people covered but we're talking about a gradual reduction. I don't know if we'd consider opening up more with spiraling case numbers but it seems unlikely.

Another thing is that we're probably going to go back on every other country's equivalent of the red list. If some countries allow vaccinated people in then that's fine but if they don't have that flexibility foreign holidays are likely to be difficult.
Probably.
 
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If it is worse, what does that say about the measures taken?
Are there more tests being carried out now?
It would say that the measures we're taking to stop the spread are utterly ineffective.

Look for yourself if you want to see how many tests are being carried out, last time I checked we were demand limited on tests now so I doubt it's changed much.

Why did you choose the 5th of July?
Typo, that should have read the 12th, four weeks after the 14th.
 
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Well, here we are; another fortnight gone. Update time.

To add today's 'cases':

3 May 1,597
17 May 1,979 x1.24
31 May 3,383 x1.71
14 June 7,742 x2.29
28 June 22,868 x2.95
12 July 34,447 x1.51 (the last week only x1.28 on the previous - according to the board.)

With relatively few hospitalisations and deaths.

Nowhere near the 112,000 (less than a third) nor a quadrupling so does that mean the country is doing alright and no one really knows what they are doing unless their motives are not what most suppose?


Looks promising. One more week until the reopening.
What if it doesn't get worse?
 
To add today's 'cases':
:rolleyes:
Tool.
3 May 1,597
17 May 1,979 x1.24
31 May 3,383 x1.71
14 June 7,742 x2.29
28 June 22,868 x2.95
12 July 34,447 x1.51 (the last week only x1.28 on the previous - according to the board.)

Looks promising. One more week until the reopening.
What if it doesn't get worse?
I'm very pleased that the rate is much lower than it was previously. I'm curious why that's the case but haven't seen any modeling that explains it.

We know it's going to get worse, we just don't know how bad. Do you honestly think it'll just level off at 34,000 cases? I know you just ask questions in a desperate attempt to avoid stating your opinion that it's all made up, but come on, try for a change.
 
I thought the current thinking, for the UK, was doubling every 10 days?
A comment very relevant to the current discussion, considering a quadrupling of the cases has been mentioned.
Quadrupling every fortnight

Why the ludicrous question? It's just bizarre! My comment was relevant, and you asked a very stupid question.
So I responded with a similar critical response:
I just said so.
Is this bonkers week?

So as usual,, EFLImpudence resorts to another ridiculous comment.
Don't clutter the thread with your usual rubbish.
It is bonkers week!
EFLImpudence asks a stupid question, then complains when he gets an answer.
It's raving bonkers week.
If you don't want daft answers, don't ask stupid questions.
 
Last edited:
Well, here we are; another fortnight gone. Update time.

To add today's 'cases':

3 May 1,597
17 May 1,979 x1.24
31 May 3,383 x1.71
14 June 7,742 x2.29
28 June 22,868 x2.95
12 July 34,447 x1.51
26 July 24,950 x0.72 (the last week down 21.5% on the previous - according to the board.)

Still with relatively few hospitalisations and deaths.

As we know, a few days up to 54,205 at the peak on 17 July but now reducing.

The next fortnight should be definitive - one way or the other.
Depends how many tests there are, I suppose.

Let's see what the freedom ping lockdowns do.
 
It has been a pleasant surprise to me. It could be that the good weather has been enough to drop the rate of infection.

It could in theory be people deciding that it's not worth getting tested, but that's hard to disprove or prove. Hospitalisation rates will be very reliable if we're willing to wait long enough to see them.
 
Something strange is going on with the UK Govt Covid19 new infection numbers

Until a few days ago Kings Collages Zoe system consistently reported numbers close to Govt

Over the last few day, a gap has started to appear Today's new infections

Govt 46,589
Zoe 62,888
 
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