Stock market dealing

I don't know if you look back at your own trades - I try to, mine for the unfortunate ones.
I looked at one of yours. You may well have seen the same thing, in hindsight.
Your trade here went long, ie expecting the price to go in the direction of the arrow, but it went green to red.
I don't know the time where you entered, only the level:

View attachment 332553

Now we can see that the price was going down to a pre-established level, around the thin white line, and the entry turned out to be premature.
I think that was largely bad luck.
Assuming you didn't enter opon a red candle, (ie the arrow should be 4 dots to the right) I guess ou could have got out earlier.

Again, though, you were betting on a counter-trend play. The price was falling and you anticipated where it was going to turn. Taking onboard Odds' comments above, wait in anticipation don't act in anticipation!
Goimg short wold have been with the trend. If you go with the trend and F it up, you can expect to get away with most of it if you wait. Here the downtrend didn't continue, but it went sideways which could have got you out even, after a mistake.

Do you watch Neal's little mid day Real Deal topics. He did a very good one a day or two ago which was called something about patience. It's particularly good, I recommend it. It's not just about patience but also about his analysis of what the candles are doing at a couple of points. Good guy, Neal.
. I quite often watch him two or three times, because the language he uses can be hard to work out. The red glasses help with eye strain, apparently.
SC continues to annoy. He tells all what he's done when it's too late for anyone to copy him then says "I gave you that trade". He needs someone to call him out!
Thanks. I bought (at 15:53) because bitcoin was rising, the longer term trend was upwards, and the MACD had crossed over from -ve to +ve. I had been looking for a continuation of the longer term trend from the earlier high about half an hour before and waiting for MACD to cross over, which it only did at this point. So I would say I had been being pretty patient. Maybe the moral is that you can get in on a pullback from a trend, but not once the pullback has persisted so long that it becomes a trend in the opposite direction.
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I only trust MACD to tell me something is going up or going down :D.
It is useful for spotting divergence thouigh - when the price is going up, but the MacD trend is going down. Hard to explain but Investopedia will provide.... The standard period numbers on MacD are too long for day trading, Try 8,13,5.

Mara sort-of follows Bitcoin price, sometimes it goes in the opposite direction though, damn thing.
Where you were looking, was a decent place to look for a change to a rise, but once it didn't behave exactly when you wanted, you could tell another leg was going far enough to be expensive so a quick out, I'd say, was called for. As I said, you can HODL (hold on for dear life!) if you're going WITH the trend more than when you're going against.
It's a case of - do you want to have a go at winning £70 but maybe lose that £134, or would it be better to be more certain and only win £50?

Someone better than me has pointed out that NVIDIA results are coming up, and the thing has risen into earnings for the last 3 or 4 dates. If that repeats, buying now would be beneficial. I'll do that. There's the choice for me of buying a UK leveraged 3x, or using CFD at 5x, and paying the swap fee overnight. The rate is egregious but for a few days it's ok. The problem with the UK based 3x ETP is the timing - after the UK market close at 4:30pm you can't do owt about it, though you can set a stop loss. Most of the rises tend to come overnight.
The someone is Danielle Shay of Simpler Trading. She visits TTV. If you can drive Twitter better than me you'll be able to find her tweet about it, with a graph.
As I'm sure you know, holding much in one of the beasts actually THROUGH the results declaration can be a total lottery, so I won't do that. Well, maybe with a little bit. If you put a limit sell order about well above the price at the time, a bounce can win for you even if the price then drops like a rock. Normal "high" might be 5% - for NVIDIA, gawd knows. 25%?

I want another broker (or three) because they could all go t!ts up so I don't want too much in one. The fees at the big banks are too high, I'm cheap.
So I stuck some money in a new one the other day and bought some NVIDIA just to get the feel of the site, really. Just looked:


GREEN is such a pretty colour.
I'll put up the stop and leave it there.

This is not investment advice! Sooner or later, the whole puffball will deflate .
It's tempting to play about with an options straddle, Iron butterfly, iron condor or whatever, or just put a long order and a short at the same time. If the price plummets you won't be able to get a new Short, but if you're in one they'll have to honour it. So, the long will close on its stoploss and you're happy with the short, (or vice versa).
Some brokers will guarantee the stop, for a small fee, so it can't lose on a slip.

Trump, by the way, wants to get rid of a "article 230" law which protects the likes of twitter against prosecution for something bad one of the users posts. That would collapse all social media. Maybe evnetually even this site if it spead. That's a few trillion wiped offthe stock market.

Other fun facts
This day 13 years ago you could have bought one Bitcoin for one dollar. Each is now $43,000.

Nvidia has joined the list of companies which by themselves, have a market capitalization larger than the whole of the Chinese stock market.
I'm looking for an ETF to stick longer term money into and not keep fiddling with. WIfe's too.
Morningstar has some sage advice, which is that the superstar top 7 are overheated, so go for strong companies with a good "moat" by which which they mean a strong position in their market. They mentioned AVGO, SHOP,ADBE and a few more, but there are loads.
I mean, like General Electric. Nobody makes a fuss about it, but is has returned about 1.5% per week, for well over a year now.
My feeling - which isn't worth a light, is that Meta(Zuckerberg/facebook Igram etc) , Google (Alphabet) (youtube etc) and the chips (Nvda, SMC, AMD, Avgo, INTEL?), will carry on a while yet, and Msoft, Amazon will be "ok" though Apple is vulnerable. Tesla - gawd knows.
The chips can't keep going up forever. Take profits and set stop-losses.
My wife has a penson which is earning, would you believe, about 4% pa. Disgraceful! That'll be changing tomorrow..

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Yes that was it: Bigger:

What it shows - though it's a bit obscured, is that their price goes up into the earnings day - yellow arrows. All the earnings have been good, so people were maybe hoping for more?
Then the price dips. She's put 8 days post earnings in, but the price doesn't come up for a while.
At the moment NVDA is even hotter so it might be different.

You'd think NVDA must be ridiculously overpriced, but if you look at the Price/Earnings ratio it's better than others in the sector.
Their top chip, last I heard, was $40,000 plus. Sounds a lot but compared with the cost of a data centre , not so much. You get a whole "environment" when you buy the chips, which gives brand loyalty. They were threatened by restriction on the tech that can be sold to CHina. OK, they said, and now produce a chip which is still fast but CAN be sold to China.
AMD aren't hanging around, they're innovating too. Their P/E is bad, though.
The equipment Nvidia use to make the chips is only made by ASML in the Netherlands, using an ultra short wavelength imaging of the chip so they can get the junctions ("transistors") smaller. They get them made at Taiwan semiconductor, (TSMC) I believe because they have the best fabrication at the moment. Obviously the Chinese have a myopic perspective on that.

A couple of companies are supposed to be setting up state of art fabrication in the US, to bring it home. The cost makes everyone's eyes water. Equal to the GDP of Portugal, sort of thing.

The obvious (but very difficult) next step may be to use lasers instead of light. When that happens, and you have one company/country so far ahead of everyone else and allowing nobody a chance to catch up, what happens? War? I have no idea.
I have visions of plagues of drones too clever to get shot down or not find their target. Send out flocks of 1000. Problem solved.

China claims to be developing various things, but hasn't come up with the goods. Their phones, for example, are apparently way behind.

ARM is another which is interesting. They're strong in Restricted Instruction Set processors ( something I've used) which are small, & blisteringly fast for the power they consume. Not only that but they license out the use of them ( or something like that) so they have a big income stream from that as well. Again, used in phones.
If you look at SMCI's blurb, it looks like they're in exactly the right market space, which is why their stock is going mad, too.

It's all bonkers.
There's a trading centre by Liverpool Street Station. It turns over 11million pounds per second. USA? No idea. Add some zeroes I expect.
I have a Chinese phone, made by Xiaomi. It was cheap but seems really good. I don't have any concept of what benefits I would have got from getting a more expensive model.

"Reduced Instruction Set" isn't it?
Had enough forr the day, I've been riding BMR. SUrely it has stopped squeezing. Can't short it now so time for a cup of something. WHisky.
"Reduced Instruction Set" isn't it?
Well it's RISC. Not sure....
Checked, yes you're right. I can't even remember the chip numbers.
It WAS last century - when the co was at Cambridge.

Those who analyse the Chinese phone made the judgment, because that's where their best tech gets put.
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I did well on nvidia today, although got out too early. A bit flat on the others. How did you find out about BMR? It's not even listed on IG.

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"The girl Adara" calls out mad movers. Often I don't have them on my platform, but today two were. I was too late for the other but this one had only gone two hundred and something percent.
I often steer clear because you can get stuck "holding the bag" but as it turned out it had plenty of its total 1500% rise left :oops:


Very lucky was the flat top so even a klutz like me got the exit.

After the cup of tea, old faithful Mara was doing its thing, for a few percent

I was holding a chunk of NVIDIA in a 3x ETF -as I said everyone expects it to rise. But I happened to look at it when it was tanking about 14:45, so I bottled out and sold off. Then see what happened....... which I forgot to check.......

So not having enough screens cost me 5%. Grr!
(That's NVD3)

I see that's when you made good use of it. Oh well done!
How many screens do you have? I just have the two. Maybe I need more.

Yes, pleased with myself that I had the strength of conviction to go long on Nvidia while Shawn had gone short.
Just 2 plus laptop, which is good for screeners etc. Phone can do most of TTV. They're very cheap now, 24" only about £80.
Have you seen Humbled Trader youtubes? She uses 2 x widescreens.
Card for 4 screens at 1920x is only about £80, or there's one at £250 ish for 6 x 4k.
Can't have too many, one for oil, gas, indexes etc etc etc.

Sold NVDA to take profit. It may have had everything priced in, and dip to well below 700.
BTC down so Mara etc in my sights.
watch BMR again but expect it to keep stopping.
BGLC is another.
(and DGBI)

DDOG will move
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11 and 5, well done!.
Bad luck with that early TRIP entry.
I noticed Neal on something like that, going short near the top of every candle as the price rises. Then when it carries on down he lets it go on down. Hard. He's a surgeon with a scalple though.

A couple of small cappers were tempting again today but I have been burned where the spread is wide.
After nat gas for about 4% I was getting chopped about quite a bit - a day when everything reversed all the time. BUt I was watching SC who took an obvious, off a level, Invidia short so I joined in. It went near 10 bucks and I dumped the pot on it, nice end to the day. They often find those near the close. Are you watching then? Often quite small but very safe.

One thing I've taken to doing is making a list of a few stocks and using a speaking alarm on the phone. You can set any number of minutes, and go through the list in a loop each time. WHen it annoys you , you can change it to a buzz.

With IG, if your pot is 100, how much of it can you use on SB's?
Sometimes I'm looking in the evening, but sometimes I go out. This evening I had dinner at about 7 and then looked again. Datadog seemed an obvious short then.

I could use Alexa for alarms, but I'm not sure that it would help me.

With a pot of 100 you could place a trade of 0.007 per point on Nvidia and you'd be using your whole balance as margin.
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