Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

If nothig else, assuming you go for an off-the shelf plan, at least know where it's putting the money, and what those sectors are doing at the time.
I mean for example, if you put a lump in North America- normally a standard move - a month ago, you'd regret it now at minus 20%. It could drop another 20% - there's a higher than average chance of that happening soon. It's the Trump effect, throwing everything around. It would be imho a reasonable thing to do to put your money in "money market" funds or a building society account, for a few 6 months, and see what happens to the SM.. One assumes things will settle some time!

This:

between, for example, a World Index, a European Index, and a UK index.

is still a list, just different categories.
Not a particularly good one, see below.
World index will be heavily US weighted
Even those few show awful performance at times in the past few years.
I had a small pension growing over the years in a "managed fund". When I finally got to look at it, it wasn't being managed much at all, some of its constituents had been going backwards for a year. I only got round to making a couple of adjustmentsbutthe made a decent difference.


JD's "low interest rate" in the Money Market is the same, within a close margin, as a Building Society rate:

That's Abrdn Sterling Money Market in Orange

Right now, for instance. it's not a daft place to have your money.
S&P500 is USA, it's where most of the money is!

I've been using the Blue one; that dip is the first time it has done that in years. I recently switched over, but if I hadn't I'd have still been up 30% in 18 months.
ONLY Blue and orange are not negative over the past 6 months
As it happens, gold would have seen you smiley in the past 6 months, but only because it's going up as a reaction to the main ones going down. Not so good over a longer period, it has done nothing for extended periods.
It may very well turn out that investing right now in say "world" is a lucky time and it'll jump up 20%, but you'd have to ask Mr Trump.
Bear in mind though he doesn't mind if it drops anther 20%.
I can show you more graphs to illustrate that that is NOT unlikely.

 

[Justin Passing]

I had a look at the tea leaves.
There's another drop coming this weekend.

 

[Justin Passing]

Still waiting for the rest of the drop., may be Monday/Tuesday.

#INVESTING
April, so what do do with the new 20K per person ISA allowance.???
Choices are basically
1) Trading 212 cash / S&S ISA, 4.3% (5% promo now) or so or can put into various shares and some ETFs., all free.
2) Building society account. No advantage over (1) except there may be a higher fixed rate . Basically the Blue line below.
3) Anothe broker/fund holder

No contest, for me. The rates may drop ,but the building soc rate is available as "shares", near enough, in the Money Market, regular as clockwork.
Maybe it's up to 1% different -sometimes it's higher. So a stocks and Shares account.

I've been using the same basic fund for a couple of years now. It wobbled recently when Trump disturbed the Bond market, but I think it may be back on track now.
I haven't found any bond thing which is consistently better. All those low cast trackers are nowhere close.
So this is where my wife's accounts go. It's called MAN Dynamic Income, Hedged £ Acc. Orange below. There are a few others somewhat similar, but not quite.

Trading 212 doesn't have OEICs like that unfortunately. "Investment" facilities at eg Building societies, and banks won't have it , or anything quite like it, either. I noticed the wobble before the drop, so was half out, then all out within about 1.5%.
That means using
3) Another broker/fund holder.
It doesn't matter very much, the fees on 20k aren't enormous, but you have
Hargreaves Landsdown Quite good to deal with but 0.45% fees. Free funds swaps but ETFs expensive to trade.
AJ Bell . A wider range of funds, 0,25%, cheap dealing if you swap between funds or ETFs. An excellent SCREENER here.
Interactive Investor. Flat fee site so it depends what you have there already. Less good web site, no useful screener, slow to change between funds, higher fees than AJBell.
Invest Engine Is ok if you want to use ETFs and nothing else. Then it would be the cheapest. No MAN Dyn.
Fidelity, Schwab, IB, IG, etc - no advantage for most people

What I'll be doing with Wife's accounts, which get looked at once per week or two, is use the MAN fund mentioned unless it wobbles, then I'd drop to Money Market and wait.
If things settle as in previous years, I'd look for long term performance in other areas. Maybe India, Maybe Fianancial Sector, Maybe Gold, or Japan..
Gold is too volatile unless you're watching all the time, for more than a limited percentage. It is expected to drop when the markets settle

Right now we ARE in a bit of a dip, many regions a re recovering, though the near term future depends on Trump.

To use that AJB Screener, go to advanced Filters , select Risk Rating 1,2,3,4,5,6 but not 7 and Save.
Then go to Performance>Trailing Performance. Click on 1W to show you what's going on now.

 

[Justin Passing]

 

[Justin Passing]

HI
What's pfp? SOmething about profile pictures in crypto? In that case I know nothing and from what google just showed me, stay away unless you're playing with it and prepared to lose whatever you're playing with.

opinion on investing when market is instable?

Right now, I think it's very fragile, the Trump effect could cause anything, without any notice at all.
Use the Money Market. The growth will be about the same as a building society. Really boring.

A bond I used for years - The MAN DYnamic Income one which you'll see mentioned above , went through a wobble and dropped a few percent for the first time, when the S&P dropped a lot, looks to be back on track now. It gows faster than the MM so I'm using it again. It's not exciting, but one percent a month is high!
Gold is the Safe Haven, but it has just dumped. If there's some unexpected stabilisation , it'll come down more but the likelihood is a rise.


There are lots of short term trading plays, but nothing much that's predictable. I think a growth in Chinese stocks is likely when that's sorted.
But if there's an Oh Sh*t moment the whole market could drop 30% and that would take everything with it, perhaps.

BTC may or may not be affected.
Watch BTC in the premarket, and if it's rising, then MARA, MSTR COIN and others tend to go up faster. That has worked agin recently, but not so often.

Watching TTV will teach you a lot, but you have to book or youtubn - learn about levels and candlesticks and breakouts and flags and compression etc etc. There's agroup pof learning youtubes done by Michael Nauss at Statsedge Trading.com. you could look at those.

Shawn Catena at TraderTV is a bragging idiot who doesn't have a clue how to teach, he does a lot he doesn't explain. And usually when it's too late.
Never try to follow him. Neal and Joe are a lot better. Their Levels and sentiments are usually about right though - use with care!.

can earn money if you smart enough in any situation..

Yes you can, but you have to have a good platform and be more clever than me. When it's choppy I tend to walk away.
It's always much easier to lose

Use a paper account.
Read a book "Trading in the Zone" (pdf online)
Most of the difficulty is in your mind so youhave to start there.

 

[Justin Passing]

Yeah, pfp dunno but smells, to me!

This is what I meant this morning, as I said, watch btc and buy something related which is doing well. Where are you? In the UK we can buy leveraged stocks like this one. Rather spready, so use limit orders.
I got a few %.

It's a pain being there watching (use ur phone with alerts) but if you make a few % say 3 days a week, you're doing ok.
WHen the US is open I can use leveraged cfd at x5 for stocks, x20 for indices. Those work on eg MSTR or MARA but not on the leveraged stocks.
If btc goes definitely up, say $3, then Mara may go up 6% and on cfd that's 30%. SOmetimes it's much more dramatic.

Shawn Catena isn't unsmart, but he'll tell you he started something 3 minutes ago and how well he's doing (like 20 cents but with a million shares), so you join and it goes backwards within 2 minutes. If someone tells him he gets aggressive and says he's 90% out of it and he doesn't want to hear about people's losses. Always calls himself "we". Bell end.
When he gives a level though ( which you should be able to find anyway) and a direction, he's right about 2/3 or 3/4.
If something starts off against him he's very slow to quit. But if he loses, he 'll use more and more shares on simpler range trade or something later in the day to win back. He has access to millions literally.

Biggest mistake I still make is trying to use more than one stock at a time and making a mistake on one of them.
ALso, using the futures, it can jump back like several hours gain in an instant and blow through a stop. Nothing youcan do aboutthat, just be careful with Trump and his gob. If they say he's speaking, sell!

 

[Justin Passing]

Worth looking at the daily "stickynote" you have to look at the live chat in TTV for the link, though there's a daily email...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1916839861383729631

Neal does them too but I find them rather streetwise/cryptic!

 

[Justin Passing]

OK day. NVDA had that catalyst so I used that like SC said, with some Mara up and down.
Also saw Nat gas so put a smaller amount on that because it's leveraged 10:1, so 7% goes a long way.
My Marks and Spencer is down - there doesn't seem tou be much of a reason!
Just have Mara now with stops set.

 

[Justin Passing]

That was 8:05
I had another look and there was a rally going on.
I used the NQ (Nasdaq futures) which went up 0.7% . At 20:1 that's 14%

I'm not sure that those multiply up to. There are the inevitable minuses where things didn't go right for me but not too much.
Umm, Mstr early, 5%; NVDA drop 3.1%, x5 = 15%; NQ late + 14
37%. Plus and minus some bits.
Turned out to be a better than average day. But 0:745 to 23:15 and I'm knackered. Haven't eaten, still have paperwork to do, etc.....

 

[Justin Passing]

Markets thoroughly Trumpfed. It's trying to settle, but then orange makes a noise.

In teh isas/pension/savings, it's pretty hard to pick a fund with growth. That Man Dyn is ok so far. Europe has been OK too, European banks are excelling, but the chart suggests the run will end soon.
Gold has dropped sharply but the trend is still up - until it ends whenever that will be.
Looking on a screener, none of the funds which did well in the past week did well in the past month.
Quite niggling:

 

[Justin Passing]

Whoa, glad I was there:
I knew Barclays results were being released so stacked up on the 3x leveraged fund. The banks are mostly doing well.
The UK market opens 8am, so I sat smugly when Barclays went up, and shortly after, the 3x fund shot up

Great, good, that's OK then.

But then, WTF?
I didn't expect it to drop like this.

So there you are @kingandy2nd , if you want to play, and turn a few quid, you need to do a little research into what's doing good right now & what's coming, then you have to be there, for about 2 minutes!
What I did not do, annoyingly, was go short from the top. Not awake enough. Could have doubled the bubble.

 

[Justin Passing]

#Hot Stocks
There's a European defence stocks ETF
and There's a 3x version of European Aerospace & Defence stocks. Currently Up 25% in a couple of weeks.

The constituent companies' shares wobble somewhat but there seems to be a committment to spend by most EU countries, so this may only go one way.
There's a euro version and a GBP version. The latter will be even less liquid
If you don't know what that means, probably best not try to trade it
Here it is at the London Stock Exchange:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/3EDF/wisdomtree/company-page

Check the bid/offer spread, currently "-/-".

 

[Justin Passing]

I've noticed something recently which I just hadn't, before.

On Bloomberg TV in the morning, just before the European markets open, they say what the futures are doing and how the morkets are expected to open. Butthe "futures" follow the market and vice versa.
So you CAN trade, the furures, before the market opens, long or short.
When the market roper opens, and jumps say up, the futures do the same.
This morning they said the DAX (German) would rise.
Futures are leveraged, x20.
So if it rises like it did:

you get a 0.85% rise which becomes a 17% rise after leverage.. That, is good, in a few miutes. It has worked when I've tried it. All you have to do is be ready, and check.



__--___


A typical pattern, illustrated today, is the range, or channel. The price bounces back and forth between predictable levels. Very much something beginners should look for.

This one today was the unusual ticke SPCE, which is for Vurgin Galactic.
The stock was off to the rces early, which of course was only picked up once it had hap[pened, by the scanner programs. It rose 50%.

This period

SHows the price bouncing in a range,
Here it's say 5.8 to 6.2. That's a 6.45% range. Lets call it 5%
On normal CFD/ legerage at 5:1. that's a ramge of 25%.
You can go long and short (up and down)

and there are half a dozen swings in there at least.
So that's 150%. STart with £100, come out with £250.
Or of course add zeroes.

 

[Justin Passing]

#Swinging

Less frantic than day trading, is Swing Trading.
The price of a share(etc) moves like the waves on a beach. The tide may be coming in or out, but the water edge comesup and down the beach all the time. You want to "catch a rise", so you wait for the water to recede. If you take note of a few peaks and troughs, you can guess where to wait for a nice low minimum.
If you get it wrong, but you're doing it when you know the tide is coming in, you have a good chance of still getting your rise if you simply wait longer.

Stock proces are the same. Over enough time the trend is upwards on most stocks.
Then you look for stock which are good companies, wherethe share price has broadly been going up.
Then you look for the"channel" the price is moving in.
A rising channel is good, but it can be flat, or even down a bit, as long as you get the bottom edge of a channel.

You want rise and fall in the channel yo be large, you want a tight "spread" (buy-sell difference in proce) relative to that, and you want it to happen in a convenient time frame.
You hope to find a share where political events etc aren't particularly likely to disturb things.

Here's oe I've been using, It's called Airtel Africa.

The price is the purple ish wiggle.
The channel is about where the yellow lines are.
There's a weak cenral line which shows where there can be a hesitation, or sometimes a reverse.
I just sold, at 182.
The last couple of drops have been quite sharp. It looks lik,ethe price might go down across the green circle. The red box shows that's a bit over 9%.

By "going short" which I've described before, you make the 9% when the price falls.
On many platforms you use "leverage" which means you stump up £100 to "use" £500 worth of shares.
COmpanies don't explode to nothing, but if this one did then the potential loss could be say half he £500, because the brokerage platform would sell (buy back, in this case) the shares even if you didn't. If you had no other money on the platform, then you could only lose your £100, or a part of it. You can set your own "stops" and alerts if it does something you did't like, to sell for you or send you a message. Normal thing is to start buying or selling when the price is near what you want, in case it mucks about, so you can get an average price near what you want.

SImple case, you use say £1000 and the price moves 9%, you make £90. Previous drops have been in less than a week. 9% a week is 8800% a year. (compounded)..
If you use leverage of 5:1, Your 1000 gets you £5000 of shares. and the 5000 moves 9%, which would be £450.

Because you're using the brokerage's money, you're borrowing $5k for a week.
Some are cheap, some ( Like eToro, Trading212) charge credit-card rates.
For T212, you have

SO for 5 days, going Short, that's 5000 x 5 x 0.0251% which is £6.275.

You aren't locked into anything, you can quit whenever you like.
Many will hesitate for a while, annoyingly, so you have a few running at the same time and play the probabilities.

Less work than Day Trading.. If you use the preset stops, and check in to check the price against your lines, not too stressful.

That drawing is on the free version of TradingView, so it persists.
If you want to be conservative, you'd start to take profits on this one at say 174, 170, 167 then all out 165.
Then you'd go long, and wait and watch. Drops are usually faster than rises, so you could look for potentialdrops for preference.

Going Long is betting on the tide coming IN, so in a sense it's safer, long term.

** Make sure you aren't seeing the price drop as a result of an Ex DIvidend date. Those are very regular, you can look up when they are.

 

[Justin Passing]

#CouldaShouldWoulda

Some companies pay a DIvidend, annually, quarterly etc.
It might be from almost nothing , to over 10%. It's declared in advance. Say it's 5%.
There is an Ex-Dividend date,. You bave to be holding shareson that date, to get the Div. Buying next day, you won't get it. See Here to check I have that exactly right.

The day after the ex div date, the share price would usually drop by that 5%.
You cannot "short" the stock to earn the 5%, you'd have to pay it back - see the reference.
BUT if the share is a large one by Market Capitalization (total value of all the shares in the company) then that 5% drop will affect the INDEX price. The Index would be the one for the country, like the FTSE 100 for the UK or the DAX (GER40) for Germany.
Often, several companies will go "Ex Div" on tha same date. Usually, when stocks dropping in value it tends to drag the rest of the sector with it, a little. "Bots" set the prices.
You CAN "Short" the whole index without having to pay anything back.
Look what happened when Deutsche Bank, and Porsche/VAG and a couple of other big divident payers went ex-div.:

It dropped 2.5%. (It will tend to come back up again fairly quickly - that can be used too).
So if you used £100 you'd win £2.50.
£10k, £250. Not bad for one overnight.
BUT, that's an index, it's not leveraged at 5:1, it's 20:1.

So you don't make 2.5%, you make 50%.
(less that overnight interest effectively 0.278% of your £5k).