Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

A scanner doesn't tell you everything, you still need to go through the stocks it lists and I typically see reasons to rule a lot of them out.

Obviously! and Absolutely, but it shows you what's worth checking. The Filters are useful to remove anything with very low or very high volume, or anything too small.
Sometimes you can spot a "buying program" eg where something has gone up X% in a minute, 5X% in 5 minutes, 15 X% in 15 mins etc. Those can run all day.
There are Gap scanners too, useful for the small cap gappers - which can give huge risky rises. Cherif on TTV is good with those.

@kingandy2nd there are ""rules"" for those small cap gappers. It's more of an art than a science to pick which ones are usable. If you look at the old TraderTV youtubes - they're all up there, for the time of day (4pm ish iirc) when CHerif is on, he often goes through his own rules.
He wants things which are (iirc) 1) higher than in the premarket, 2) above VWAP. Then he waits for a pullback , always. You have to look at the SPREAD which can make it unusable. The change per 1 minute candle* can be alarming as well. This is where T212 is too slow really. TTV's price moves about 5 times as often - every second or so sometimes.
*that's where say, the price is going up 1% a minute but each 1 minute candle is 10% tall. You have to grab the price low in the candle. The spread has to be tight enough to allow you to do that. If the volume is high enough the spread will be tight.
Practice. When the ducks are in a line you can get 20% move in a few minutes. T212 say they don't allow this practice but they haven't warned me for it yet. Better platforms are available, but watch for fees.

I'm still in it and it is well down.

usually they go back to 0 on the run, be in day, week,... Usually you can't Short them, unless you short them early, X-1 on the way up, while you're Long +2X. Close the +2X at the top and sit and watch while the cash ticks on on the fall.

Tip: Earnings Results are dangerous to trade around. The results can be one way and the stock goes the other - often both ways in the first minutes after announcement.
However, if a stock is one with positive interest, the price will go up before the announcement. 3-4 weeks out is a good place to start looking for dips to buy.
SOFIs results are Monday so I checked,:

there's nearly 30% there. It probably won't move that much on the announcement, so take the profit and go. I must admit it can be fun to have $100 of the thing through earnings. Whatever the price does you can react. If it dips, it'll come back so there's a rise you can use, etc. If it goes straight up sell because it might go negative in a few seconds time. Selling 2/3rd leaves you something in case it goes on up. Sometimes they hit max around (our) midnight.

 

[Arbu]

I did better on Friday. Looked at Amazon based on your suggestion and noted that US data was out at 3pm so traded around that. Thought there would be profit-taking before 3 but that didn't work but I got in short again twice after the news and it went well. I looked at the big premarket movers on t212 but found it hard to know what to do based on them.

 

[Arbu]

If you look at the old TraderTV youtubes - they're all up there, for the time of day (4pm ish iirc) when CHerif is on, he often goes through his own rules.

Andy, let us know if you find this - I had a quick look and failed.

 

[Arbu]

 

[Justin Passing]

Andy, let us know if you find this - I had a quick look and failed.

Actually I never tried it, but I know old youtubes are up here, I keep getting old ones
They keep bangin on about lots of stuff being available.......

so I Googled, here's one:

This one is the man with his rules:

Arbu - much better trades, the last 2.
That there

"Is a flat top break" where the top is at the solid line. If you happen across one, you traditionally short the top of each peak which goes up to the flat top, hope/expecting that when it breaks, it carries on down. If the previous direction from before the flat/consolidating part had been a rise, you'd go long in the dips, hoping/expecting that the break would be upwards.
Not sure why you got out where you did.


A day of butchery in parts of the markets today, showing how fragile the tech sector is. I see no reason for as much panic as there was. We don't even know what the Chinese did, and whatever, it was a week ago. There are bound to be improvements in AI methods all the time.
On the face of it, they came up with a design of AI which needs far less computing effort that previously envisaged. It is suggested that therefore, all the biggest companies, which are making huge investments in AI, are wasting their money.

As I see it the question will be, whether the demand (the market) is elastic or not. That's to say, is there so much demand for AI that more will be used, or will we just need fewer fancy chips to get what we need?
There is infinite scope for improving the AI, but does anybody want it?
Is anyone monetizing AI? Well, errm, here and there, yes, but the answer isn't "overwhelmingly so".
Is it like a word processor - once good enough, there's little point making one that does more. Or a mobile phone, which hasn't improved much in the last couple of years or few. Most iphone users do not rush to get the new model. Not a very elastic market.

Or is it like mechanical energy, which was unleashed by a superior James Watt steam engine in the 19th century? Some thought it would simply mean a decline in the usage of coal. They were wrong. We just used ever more energy. Elastic market. ("Jevons paradox" iirc).

AI can be hard to use because you have to connect it wth something for it to be useful beyond what's doable on a computer.
AI in a lawnmower, might help it avoid all manner of obstacles and make pretty patterns, great. But is anyone going to pay for the AI version , compared with the cheaper traditional one?
Do you have one of the internet connected fridges? Not for me, thanks.
Does anyone want heir life surrounded by AI? I don't know. When the first Home Computers came out, the boss of Ferranti said he couldn't imagine why any home would want one.

There is one case for the very best AI, which still seems to me to be a jumbo in the lounge. I've said so before. If you have the cleverest money- trading engine, you become the world's wealthiest person. That is not insignificant.
There are other examples I've nudged against in my life. If you want your missile to be untraceable, or your comms to be unencryptable, you can confuse the hell out of your enemy and his radio. His computer tries to follow, but can't. So you read his comms, stop his missiles, and hit him.


I expect markets will be found, or created, but how much and how fast?

 

[Arbu]

Not sure why you got out where you did.

My stop loss got hit.

I had a better trade overnight on Microsoft

 

[Justin Passing]

I've been playing with indicators. I'm trying "Net Volume". It's quite good for helping to pick the tops and bottoms.


I mean, put over simply, if you're in a stock whose rising you think is slowing down, it'll dip noticeably just before the top. It's clearer than my Volume bars.

 

[Arbu]

Good one overnight.

 

[Arbu]

 

[Arbu]

JP, how do you keep track of forthcoming earnings, as a matter of interest?

 

[Justin Passing]

Earnngs: All sorts. Tried google? Tradertv, trading economics, on and on.

This was a little intense - 5 minute candles on the Nasdaq futures. Each candle is over $50.
I scalped within each one several times, so getting much more than $50 . If/when they notice, T212 will complain. An Index so CFD is 20:1.
50 shares x (only) $50 x 5 candles. Noodle then frazzled and that looked like the last candle. Good pay for half an hour.

Here's an example of that Net Volume indicator.
I was short NVDA. Yuo have to take note of the 0 on the scale. Above is buying. It looked different so I got out. It often gives you 1 minute's notice, ie it flips without the trace moving enough to cause alarm.

A week or so ago I passed on Platinum - a leveraged ETF has done well.

I noticed WOOF is at a bottom, and people are resilient when it comes to buying petfood. A 5% rise would continue recent swings. Small, but...


Things could be choppy as hell in the coming days/weeks. Last Feb was and now we have an orange idiot.
I mostly hold Funds (OEICS) in the likes of Interactive Investor, but they take an age to deal.
I try to catch trends but looking back, as there hasn't been something like Jupiter INdia which was a stalwart, I've been changing too much.
I've beated the SPY but FInancials 2x (eg) did better, and there are ETFs for things like that.
There's 5xSpy too. 3x Financials has done 75% in 4 months. It'd do better to make groups of tech, US not so tech, fInancials, and hold whichever is doing best with some leverage.

Or, as the Funds ares slow, one can just buy the shares the funds hold. It's only £1.50 at AJBell. Takes more watching but tempting.
Next, is Options. Many people(who understand it better than I do) sell an option to trade the shares they hold, at such an unlkely price that it won't be used., so they collect the premiums. If the option DOES get used, it just means you don't make as much profit as you would have done. HIghly tempting.
So, eg you hold somethinng like GOOGL and sell an option for someone to to buy it from you at 200% next month.
At 150% in a month, you just keep the premium,
at 250% you only get 200% because you have to sell the shares. Shucks.
Seems too easy. A recommendation is the book "Options Trading for Dummies". Ha ha, but they're excellent books.

 

[kingandy2nd]

Thanks for all the info. Work has been crazy this past couple of weeks.

I’m hoping February is going to be calmer so I can dedicate some time to this research and actually get started.

 

[Justin Passing]

I have done ok out of the SM, but I recognise that a lot of the "value" is foofoo dust. Some of the price to earnings ratios have come ridiculous.
Most of the money is American. The tail which is wagging the dog is chips and AI, nurtured and encouraged by the biggest few companies, which represent a high proportion of the whole Market, and even World, wealth.
The "magnificant Seven"/8/9, are

Entire World GDP is around $110 T . Depends who by,/how it's counted.
The Stockmarket Value, is now, in technical terms, nuts.

Apart from oil, they all depend on computing, cloud services and expectations from AI, to a large extent.
All USA.
Even Apple is growing its cloud services sector (Green bit) much faster than its iphones and Macs
The big maker of the AI chips is NVIDIA.
But they are put together in Taiwan, by TSMC,
"Most fabless semiconductor companies such as AMD, Apple, ARM, Broadcom, Marvell, MediaTek, Qualcomm, and Nvidia are customers of TSMC,"

Trump is threatening China
Taiwan is under China's hand, even if you don't see it as part of China.
China has many options.

If China leans on Taiwan, there could be a collapse, maybe a quarter, or a third?

Selling tomorrow may involve a hit on many stocks. That's probably OK, if 10% it would only be a couple of months' growth. I'll let ya know.

 

[Justin Passing]

I sold a lot - it takes b-----y ages when you havebits all over the place. They were pretty much all at highs, less this quite small drop, so no harm done. It's a chance to "rebalance the portfoloio" (yeah, I know, that's knobspeak) out of some of the big tech stocks. They haven't been doing so well in recent results because they're as high as they can go, with just a couple of exceptions.
The stocks doing quite well atm have some of the non Magnificent 7 quite big American stocks. Gold is doing well. I don't like it because it's like buyng Bitcoin - you aren't investing in anything, just speculating. It goes up while people are buying it, then flips. There's no reason for it to be any particular price, it has little to do with the metal.

I made a mistook a few weeks back going for a bond with a good chart -GAM STAR CAT Bond. Google Cat bond to see the snag. It's quite an odd thing, took a week for the sale to go through.

 

[Justin Passing]

@Arbu TTV produces these now
Only 1 week though, I want 3 weeks minimum