Sunshine, occasional showers and the collapse of society

Joined
2 Jul 2019
Messages
8,279
Reaction score
741
Location
cornwall
Country
United Kingdom
I'd be mildly concerned of they could on the odd occasion get the weather forecast right.

Met Office predicts the collapse of society following climate disaster (msn.com)

It is a bleak forecast even by the Met Office’s standards – the complete collapse of society leaving armed militias and criminal gangs to roam the land unchallenged.

That is one of the doomsday scenarios set out in a report commissioned by the UK’s weather service to model the potential consequences of climate change.

The extraordinary report, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways and developed for the Government-funded UK Climate Resilience Programme, sets out supposedly ‘plausible futures’ as a result of global warming.
 
Sponsored Links
Joined
16 Sep 2021
Messages
2,899
Reaction score
30
Country
United Kingdom
It's perfectly normal in long term planning at macro-society levels to map out the outlying scenarios and identify probable scenarios to plan for, within the extremes.
Climate Change will be the next global event (it's already started) to create massive upheaval.
It's easy to foresee massive migration patterns emerging in 5 to 25 years time.
 
Joined
3 Sep 2006
Messages
35,912
Reaction score
4,973
Location
West Mids
Country
United Kingdom
Lol, the met office can't even get tomorrow's forecast right.

Not forgetting the "there will be no storm" and "it will be a BBQ summer" forecasts.

They may as well just use that big computer to mine bitcoin.
 
Joined
20 Feb 2008
Messages
1,534
Reaction score
120
Location
Hull
Country
United Kingdom
Lol, the met office can't even get tomorrow's forecast right.

Not forgetting the "there will be no storm" and "it will be a BBQ summer" forecasts.

They may as well just use that big computer to mine bitcoin.
Climate .....weather. You do know they are different things right?
 
Joined
16 Sep 2021
Messages
2,899
Reaction score
30
Country
United Kingdom
Fillyboy forgets to note what causes the breakdown in society, in the given scenario:
One of those scenarios described by the authors is a surge in ‘Right-wing populism’, resulting in the collapse of ‘political and governance systems’
from fillyboy's link.​
We've already seen an attempt in USA of ex POTUS claiming the election was rigged.
UK's current government will stoke right-wing populism when it suits.

Fillyboy also ignores the recommended way of avoiding such a catastrophe, by re-joining the EU:
The Meteorological Office report, which was carried out by Cambridge Econometrics, the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, and the universities of Edinburgh and Exeter, does however suggest a way of averting this future – by rejoining the EU.

It advances the thesis that the most ‘sustainable’ scenario for surviving global warming would be the ‘establishment of a federal UK, with citizens’ assemblies becoming the “primary” decision-making mode’ and the UK re-entering ‘a progressive and expanded European Union’.
From fillyboy's link.​
 
Joined
20 Feb 2008
Messages
1,534
Reaction score
120
Location
Hull
Country
United Kingdom
You know that the same people predict both, right?
Just because the Met Office is involved with climate science, doesn't mean its the same people within the organisation doing the weather forcast.
 
Sponsored Links
Joined
16 Sep 2021
Messages
2,899
Reaction score
30
Country
United Kingdom
You know that the same people predict both, right?
The report presented by fillyboy isn't a prediction. It's a potential scenario, one of many. And it's a scenario over which we have some control over whether it occurs or not. So it's more of a warning than a prediction.
 
Joined
3 Sep 2006
Messages
35,912
Reaction score
4,973
Location
West Mids
Country
United Kingdom
Just because the Met Office is involved with climate science, doesn't mean its the same people within the organisation doing the weather forcast.
OH FFS it's Pedant Monday. The issue is the MET OFFICE can't predict jack.
 
Joined
20 Feb 2008
Messages
1,534
Reaction score
120
Location
Hull
Country
United Kingdom
OH FFS it's Pedant Monday. The issue is the MET OFFICE can't predict jack.
It can predict climate, what with the fact it does.

Have any climate predictions come true?
Yes, even climate models from over 40 years ago made accurate predictions about future warming.

Now that enough time has passed, we can compare those predictions with observations of what we see today. Scientists looked at 17 global surface temperature projections from studies between 1970 and 2007 (Hausfather et al. 2019), to see how accurate they were. They found temperatures were “pretty much right on where models have predicted” (Science).

We are always improving our climate models, which build upon this success, and continue to make accurate predictions.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/climate-change-questions
 

JP_

Joined
17 May 2012
Messages
9,338
Reaction score
588
Country
United Kingdom
Climate change is going to cause total mayhem. Anybody that thinks otherwise has probably not properly looked at the forecasts.

As was said in the last DIYNOt climate discussion, the big issue has always been how we're going to cope with the human disaster, it is not about protecting pretty ice caps.
 
Joined
16 Sep 2021
Messages
2,899
Reaction score
30
Country
United Kingdom
Climate change is going to cause total mayhem. Anybody that thinks otherwise has probably not properly looked at the forecasts.

As was said in the last DIYNOt climate discussion, the big issue has always been how we're going to cope with the human disaster, it is not about protecting pretty ice caps.
And that disaster won't be just international, it will be intranational as well.
 

JP_

Joined
17 May 2012
Messages
9,338
Reaction score
588
Country
United Kingdom
And that disaster won't be just international, it will be intranational as well.

Yep. The biggest and oldest cities tend to be built on flood plains, which are at greatest risk, which means people might be forced to move out of cities into the middle class suburbs in much greater numbers. People won't like that!

We are relatively lucky in the UK though, as most cities are well above sea level. But hundreds of millions of people around the world will be much less fortunate. Around 20% of the world's population will be displaced by rising sea levels and loss of agricultural land due to climate change. That's about 1.5 billion people that will be on the look out for a new home, new job etc. It will be a disaster like no other.

I'm good for about 20m sea level rise, so long as I can still get food!
 
Joined
16 Sep 2021
Messages
2,899
Reaction score
30
Country
United Kingdom
I'm good for about 20m sea level rise, so long as I can still get food!
We're good for 166 metres, and there's a piggery close by, and wheat growing in the field, so at 21 metres, if you have a tent, we've plenty of garden.
;)
The farmer regularly grows spuds, peas, and beans, but the spuds are only good for crisps, so he says. Probably to discourage scrumping.
 
Sponsored Links
Top