UK Policy of tackling covid through herd immunity

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SirGalahad

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The reports from Italy and Spain is that the only way to mitigate this is to create as many ICU units as possible. This will cost money and resources which currently the Government is not providing.

The reality is the NHS is running at above capacity as we have cut beds and is ill suited to deal with the number of cases if it rises. This is why they want to flatten the curve so they can spread the case load over a longer period. This is dangerous territory but is the reflection we simply are not able to cope with spikes in demand.

A few takes on herd immunity.

https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1238425621375651840

https://twitter.com/AJUpFront/status/1238164101089636352

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/harvard-health-professor-coronavirus-trump-090159984.html
 
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SirGalahad said:
The reports from Italy and Spain is that the only way to mitigate this is to create as many ICU units as possible.
Click to expand...

That's not the message I got. I heard an interview with a Northern Italy doctor, I think he said they had about 840 ITU beds in Lombardy, which is one of the most prosperous and best-equipped regions of the EU, and they had far too little resource to help those who were too sick, or not sick enough.

Jeremy the Hunt said that UK has four thousand, and on an average day very few of them are free because they are mostly busy with people who have life-threatening injuries or illneses, even without CV.

If we get 5% of the population seriously ill that's over three million. Our ITU resource can help a drop in the ocean. For all practical purposes, unless you are the Prime Minister or the Queen, you should assume you are going to die at home if you are old, frail, or in poor health and get a bad attack.

BTW, if you think there is a warehouse or factory stuffed with a stock of a million spare life-support machines or ventilators, there isn't.
 
We need to accept that we either need to:
  1. Go into total shutdown, everybody stay at home, except army and volunteers to deliver food
  2. Accept that everybody will get it, and 99% will survive, recover and develop immunity, and about 600,000 people, mostly pensioners, will die
If 2 happens, the housing market will be flooded with cheap properties than need updating / renovating, might help surviving youngsters get on the property market.
 
JohnD said:
interview with a Northern Italy doctor
Click to expand...

"The only way to control this is to stop the spread of the disease. Not increasing the number of ICU beds, of course, because the more patients you have, sooner or later the number of ICU beds will be insufficient.


The only way is to make people understand that they have to stay at home. They have to avoid crowded places. They have to wash their hands, and all the simple rules that you know very well."


https://www.channel4.com/news/coron...ior-italian-health-official-giacomo-grasselli

some text here
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappen...op-coronavirus-disaster-says-doctor-1.5491013
 
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For some reason Boris disagrees.

Some find this surprising.


see 3.50
 
Bojo is thinking that the herd immunity through nudge theory will get the UK through. Essentially he has accepted we will have a great deal of deaths and many will end up not being accounted for by corona even when they are because we will not test enoug people.

This is straight from the mind of Cummings. Let people die.
 
Everyone would agree that the aim should be to flatten the epidemic curve. Its how to achieve it is the contentious issue.
Italy missed the opportunity as it was amongst them for a long time before realising it.
UK's curve is estimated to be 4 weeks behind the Italian curve so we still have the time to delay/reduce it.
The idea that the likes of the Premier League can postpone sport until early April is nonsensical as the virus is estimated to peak around April/May.

On a personal issue, I am having some house improvements done and my builder has just advised that should the schools close, he would lose his key tradesmen due to child care . Their wives are self employed and not able to take the time off!!
If that's the case, I've suggested they could work evenings and weekends.
 
France said:
Possible culture? - The Germans are not as sociable when greeting friends/colleagues ie they don't hug or kiss cheeks. Neither do us Brits :)
Click to expand...
 
"If you need intensive care and you don’t get it, it’s unlikely you will survive."
says NHS doctor
 
Some countries in the EU are in panic moad no surprise there tbh ;)

tis to be expected ;) and very predictable :)
 
SirGalahad said:
The reports from Italy and Spain is that the only way to mitigate this is to create as many ICU units as possible. This will cost money and resources which currently the Government is not providing.
Click to expand...

How many ICU units do you think they should make available?
 
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