War Machine

[Odds]

...Russia has presided over a massive ramping up of industrial production over the last two years that has outstripped what many western defence planners expected when Vladimir Putin launched his invasion. Total defence spending has risen to an estimated 7.5% of Russia’s GDP, supply chains have been redesigned to secure many key inputs and evade sanctions, and factories producing ammunition, vehicles and equipment are running around the clock, often on mandatory 12-hour shifts with double overtime, in order to sustain the Russian war machine for the foreseeable future.

The transformation has put defence at the centre of Russia’s economy. Putin claimed this month that 520,000 new jobs had been created in the military-industrial complex, which now employs an estimated 3.5 million Russians, or 2.5% of the population. Machinists and welders in Russian factories producing war equipment are now making more money than many white-collar managers and lawyers, according to a Moscow Times analysis of Russian labour data in November.

The Guardina.com

 

[Odds]

The Russian economy in 2023 outpaced both the United States and Europe in terms of growth, increasing in size by 3.6% despite being subject to a wide array of powerful economic sanctions and being cut off from major global markets. President Vladimir Putin, who faces an election in March, has said the country's economy is successfully transitioning away from Western markets and expanding self-sufficiency while simultaneously cultivating new trading relationships.

The Russian economy is expected to continue growing in 2024, though at a somewhat diminished pace. The Russian government's forecast of a 2.3% increase in GDP is actually below the 2.6% forecast released by the International Monetary Fund.

Howard J. Shatz, a senior economist at the RAND Corp., told VOA that the source of Russia's economic growth is not difficult to identify... the Russian government spent about $353.8 billion (32.4 trillion rubles) in 2023, up from a little more than 31 trillion rubles in 2022. But those numbers far outstrip prewar levels of spending. The federal budget in 2021 was only $270 billion (24.8 trillion rubles).

VoA.com

 

[JonathanM]

It feels like war is coming inexorably. USA is paralysed by Trump. Appeasement and isolation will follow if he is re-relected.

 

[Odds]

Russia will be able to sustain its war effort in Ukraine for "two to three more years," says International Institute for Strategic Studies Director General Bastian Giegerich. "But in doing so, it will have to sacrifice quality for quantity."

Politico.co.eu

Quantity over quality is a hallmark of Russian military strategy from the days of Potemkin, and Putin will think nothing of throwing more soldiers into the battle simply to make Ukrainian troops use up their limited supply of ammunition and artillery shells. The EU posted a sum of 20bn Euros last year to support the Ukrainian government and the latest aid package from America will keep them going for a while longer but Russia has the advantage in maintaining a war economy for far longer than the west can afford; especially in an election year, with the twin spectres of high Inflation fuelling the prospects of further recesssion.

 

[fillyboy]

President Vladimir Putin, who faces an election in March,

Do you think he'll win?

 

[Odds]

Do you think he'll win?

Odds on, i'd say.

An autocratic ruler in war time can become an advantage when democracies are still debating the issue of funding for a war that's likely to go on throughout another year.

Richard Connolly, an expert on Russia’s military and economy at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank in London, called it a “Kalashnikov economy”, which he said was “quite unsophisticated but durable, built for large-scale use and for use in conflicts; the Russians have been paying for this for years. They’ve been subsidising the defence industry, and many would have said wasting money for the event that one day they need to be able to scale it up. So it was economically inefficient until 2022, and then suddenly it looks like a very shrewd bit of planning.”

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Do you think he'll win?

I've seen the results.

Yes

 

[Odds]

It's not just Russia who's increased military spending...Global defence spending increased by 9% to a record $2.2tn during 2023 driven by heightened geopolitical tensions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to an annual assessment by a military thinktank. The International Institute of Strategic Studies added that it expected budgets to increase further in 2024 as the war continued into a third year and international uncertainty spread across the Middle East in the wake of the Israel-Gaza war.

The Garundia.com

No wonder the global economy is in the tank.

 

[Fred Blogs]

It feels like war is coming inexorably. USA is paralysed by Trump. Appeasement and isolation will follow if he is re-relected.

I keep saying this. If we want to keep our democratic status we will, eventually have to fight for it. One of the religeous factions has said that all "non comformists" will die. China, russia and the little fat fella want to take over the world. I believe war is inevitable and whoever comes out of the other side, assuming there will be any survivors, will rule the world. Personally I do not want to live under a communist regime and the hard core religeous factions do not impress me either.

 

[fillyboy]

Why does everyone keep dying on me?

IS it me? Am I cursed in some way? Because Navalny is far from the first. There was Prigozhin last year and countless others. Why do they all keep dying?

www.thedailymash.co.uk

IS it me? Am I cursed in some way? Because Navalny is far from the first. There was Prigozhin last year and countless others. Why do they all keep dying?

You would think, from the outside, this should be the happiest time of my life. A youthful 71, president of Russia, the special military operation in the Ukraine on the verge of liberating its grateful people. What in my life is less than perfect?

But this morning, once again, my mood is ruined by grave news. My friend and collegue Alexis Navalny, who I often light-heartedly jousted with in opposition, has sadly passed on.

This after I moved him to a much healthier prison where the cold air would help his condition. I did everything to safeguard his health, and still he succumbs to an illness doctors can only describe as ‘mysterious’.

Last year there was my great friend and former chef Yevgeny Prigozhin, taken far too young by an unexplained airplane accident of the kind that could happen to anyone.

And so many others over the years. Boris Beerzovsky, who hung himself unexpectedly. Mikhail Lesin, the founder of that great independent media outlet Russia Today, dead of a sudden heart attack. Pavel Antov, who fell from a window. Ravil Maganov, also window.

Why have so many good men been taken? Yes, perhaps we had fallings out, but that only makes things harder because I never got to make up with them before they died. You think that doesn’t hang heavy on my compassionate heart?

I owe it to these men, and to so many others, not to allow this to bring me down. I will carry on while all around me fall, unwavering in my course. But know this: I do it for them.

 

[ajohn]

So it was economically inefficient until 2022, and then suddenly it looks like a very shrewd bit of planning.”

Or a wise thing for an unpopular country to do. The other way of looking at it even when they were "popular" after a fashion.
Their war kit has always been lots of it and as cheap as possible. Helps with weapon sales. Probably not at the moment but the stuff works and keeps advancing and becoming more capable.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

I keep saying this. If we want to keep our democratic status we will, eventually have to fight for it. One of the religeous factions has said that all "non comformists" will die. China, russia and the little fat fella want to take over the world. I believe war is inevitable and whoever comes out of the other side, assuming there will be any survivors, will rule the world. Personally I do not want to live under a communist regime and the hard core religeous factions do not impress me either.

Need to prepare for the worst and Hooe for the best.

We (west as a whole) seem to have it the wrong way round currently.

We need to change, quickly. Start getting on better with other friendly countries.

On our own we wouldn't last a week

 

[transam]

Fact is fat Kim had to bail
Out poo tin with ref ammo production

They have lost some thing like 3000 tanks which are being replaced with lesser specification mass produced tanks

Let’s hope they are not employing X Lada car factory workers in there new arms production facilities

Blimey you could drive a coach and horses through the shut lines on them Ladas

Most of there kit is mass produced sh ite

 

[Notch7]

Russia is an oil based economy, oil and gas provide almost half of Russias federal budget.

Ukraine is attacking oil refineries in Russia using drones…those big tanks are easy targets.

 

[transam]

Russia is an oil based economy, oil and gas provide almost half of Russias federal budget.

Ukraine is attacking oil refineries in Russia using drones…those big tanks are easy targets.

There oil industry probably loses more oil in leaks
Than what many countries actually use ??

And there plumbing systems are sh ite as well