European Elections

[groovynooby]

A great result for UKIP... unlike most politicians I get the feeling Mr Farage actually means it!

 

[RogueHanger]

What was that quote, I think refering to US election results but just as appropriate to Uk and EU results:
"Bad politicians are elected by those that don't vote."

With a 43% tun out and a 27% UKIP support, that means that less than 12% of UK support for UKIP. (Typical parliamentary elections achieve greater than 60% tunout)

It is, in one way, perverse that there are now so many anti-EU politicians elected to that very body that they want not to be part of, and in another way, a warning to the manstream partys' supporters to turnout for all elections.

It's a similar story here in France. Although the far left party had the majority share of the vote, it was still a similar percentage of the electorate that supports the anti-EU lobby. So, again, a warning to mainstream supporters to vote.

Now, just how these anti-EU parties hope to form an alliance in the EU parliament when one is a far right party and the other is a far left party, I can't imagine.
I can only assume that they'll just be as disruptive as possible. Fortunately, they still are only a small minority in EU parliament, so their disruptive influence will be minimal.

 

[groovynooby]

What was that quote, I think refering to US election results but just as appropriate to Uk and EU results:
"Bad politicians are elected by those that don't vote."

With a 43% tun out and a 27% UKIP support, that means that less than 12% of UK support for UKIP. (Typical parliamentary elections achieve greater than 60% tunout)

It is, in one way, perverse that there are now so many anti-EU politicians elected to that very body that they want not to be part of, and in another way, a warning to the manstream partys' supporters to turnout for all elections.

It's a similar story here in France. Although the far left party had the majority share of the vote, it was still a similar percentage of the electorate that supports the anti-EU lobby. So, again, a warning to mainstream supporters to vote.

Now, just how these anti-EU parties hope to form an alliance in the EU parliament when one is a far right party and the other is a far left party, I can't imagine.
I can only assume that they'll just be as disruptive as possible. Fortunately, they still are only a small minority in EU parliament, so their disruptive influence will be minimal.

All it means is that 27% of those that voted voted for UKIP, I'm not sure you can draw any further conclusions than that; I was unable to vote, but had I been able to, I would have voted UKIP.

 

[RogueHanger]

What was that quote, I think refering to US election results but just as appropriate to Uk and EU results:
"Bad politicians are elected by those that don't vote."

With a 43% tun out and a 27% UKIP support, that means that less than 12% of UK support for UKIP. (Typical parliamentary elections achieve greater than 60% tunout)

It is, in one way, perverse that there are now so many anti-EU politicians elected to that very body that they want not to be part of, and in another way, a warning to the manstream partys' supporters to turnout for all elections.

It's a similar story here in France. Although the far left party had the majority share of the vote, it was still a similar percentage of the electorate that supports the anti-EU lobby. So, again, a warning to mainstream supporters to vote.

Now, just how these anti-EU parties hope to form an alliance in the EU parliament when one is a far right party and the other is a far left party, I can't imagine.
I can only assume that they'll just be as disruptive as possible. Fortunately, they still are only a small minority in EU parliament, so their disruptive influence will be minimal.

All it means is that 27% of those that voted voted for UKIP, I'm not sure you can draw any further conclusions than that; I was unable to vote, but had I been able to, I would have voted UKIP.

If it was a FPTP system, it might be that simplistic, but it isn't, it's a PR system. For instance, you are voting for a party, in UK, not a candidate. If you were voting for a candidate, as in the FPTP post system, UKIP may well have lost out badly due to some of their more looney candidates.

There is an excellent expose on the PR system facilitating the rise of popularity of minority parties in the Mirror. I'm not much of a fan of The Mirorr, but it's worthy of a read.
http://ampp3d.mirror.co.uk/2014/05/...em-is-facilitating-the-rise-of-the-far-right/

But even the PR system has it's faults, for instance UKIP received 27.5% of the vote, yet they have 31% of the available seats for UK.

In other countries, these anti-EU parties are also able to sweep up votes for other minority parties that have been discounted, despite the fact that the anti-EU party were not the first choice of the voters.

So, in addition to voter apathy in EU elections, it's not a simplistic 12% of support for UKIP, and that is even more complex in other countries.

By the admittance of the current UKIP supporters, that support will fall to just 6% in next years UK parliamentary elections, and that support will have switched to mainstream parties.

So, it's possible that UK, and France will end up with a national government that is supportive of EU, and a majority representation in EU parliament that is just being as disruptive as possible.

That's sounds like a Jimmy Edwards or a Carry On film to me.

 

[groovynooby]

What was that quote, I think refering to US election results but just as appropriate to Uk and EU results:
"Bad politicians are elected by those that don't vote."

With a 43% tun out and a 27% UKIP support, that means that less than 12% of UK support for UKIP. (Typical parliamentary elections achieve greater than 60% tunout)

It is, in one way, perverse that there are now so many anti-EU politicians elected to that very body that they want not to be part of, and in another way, a warning to the manstream partys' supporters to turnout for all elections.

It's a similar story here in France. Although the far left party had the majority share of the vote, it was still a similar percentage of the electorate that supports the anti-EU lobby. So, again, a warning to mainstream supporters to vote.

Now, just how these anti-EU parties hope to form an alliance in the EU parliament when one is a far right party and the other is a far left party, I can't imagine.
I can only assume that they'll just be as disruptive as possible. Fortunately, they still are only a small minority in EU parliament, so their disruptive influence will be minimal.

All it means is that 27% of those that voted voted for UKIP, I'm not sure you can draw any further conclusions than that; I was unable to vote, but had I been able to, I would have voted UKIP.

If it was a FPTP system, it might be that simplistic, but it isn't, it's a PR system. For instance, you are voting for a party, in UK, not a candidate. If you were voting for a candidate, as in the FPTP post system, UKIP may well have lost out badly due to some of their more looney candidates.

There is an excellent expose on the PR system facilitating the rise of popularity of minority parties in the Mirror. I'm not much of a fan of The Mirorr, but it's worthy of a read.
http://ampp3d.mirror.co.uk/2014/05/...em-is-facilitating-the-rise-of-the-far-right/

But even the PR system has it's faults, for instance UKIP received 27.5% of the vote, yet they have 31% of the available seats for UK.

In other countries, these anti-EU parties are also able to sweep up votes for other minority parties that have been discounted, despite the fact that the anti-EU party were not the first choice of the voters.

So, in addition to voter apathy in EU elections, it's not a simplistic 12% of support for UKIP, and that is even more complex in other countries.

By the admittance of the current UKIP supporters, that support will fall to just 6% in next years UK parliamentary elections, and that support will have switched to mainstream parties.

So, it's possible that UK, and France will end up with a national government that is supportive of EU, and a majority representation in EU parliament that is just being as disruptive as possible.

That's sounds like a Jimmy Edwards or a Carry On film to me.

What I said was 100% correct (12% of those who voted, voted for UKIP and no further conclusions, with regards to non-voters and UKIP support, can be drawn)... don't you agree?

 

[RogueHanger]

What I said was 100% correct (12% of those who voted, voted for UKIP and no further conclusions, with regards to non-voters and UKIP support, can be drawn)... don't you agree?

I agree that you've made an assertion with no supportive argument, which you have now simply repeated, again without any supportive argument.

 

[groovynooby]

What I said was 100% correct (12% of those who voted, voted for UKIP and no further conclusions, with regards to non-voters and UKIP support, can be drawn)... don't you agree?

I agree that you've made an assertion with no supportive argument, which you have now simply repeated, again without any supportive argument.

I've not checked the figures, I accepted your values as reliable... you said "With a 43% tun out and a 27% UKIP support, that means that less than 12% of UK support for UKIP. (Typical parliamentary elections achieve greater than 60% tunout)"

So, even with my rudimentary grasp of figures, this tells me that of the 43% of people who voted, 27% of those voted for UKIP, and, in my opinion it is not possible to draw further conclusions re UKIP support, I even provided you with an example as to how any conclusions could be flawed.

If you'd care to offer a 'yes or no' response to my initial statement that would be great and we need take it no further.

Just to be clear, my supportive argument is that you cannot draw further conclusions re. UKIP support as there is no supporting data.

 

[enyam]

Why is Rouge concerned with UKIP,he needs to look inward with Le Pen and Front National an anti immigrant party I believe.

 

[RogueHanger]

I've not checked the figures, I accepted your values as reliable... you said "With a 43% tun out and a 27% UKIP support, that means that less than 12% of UK support for UKIP. (Typical parliamentary elections achieve greater than 60% tunout)"

So, even with my rudimentary grasp of figures, this tells me that of the 43% of people who voted, 27% of those voted for UKIP, and, in my opinion it is not possible to draw further conclusions re UKIP support, I even provided you with an example as to how any conclusions could be flawed.

Could you highlight this example for me, because it appears to be lost in the text, somewhere.

If you'd care to offer a 'yes or no' response to my initial statement that would be great and we need take it no further.

To which question would you like a "yes" or "no" answer?

Just to be clear, my supportive argument is that you cannot draw further conclusions re. UKIP support as there is no supporting data.

Just to be clear, that is your assertion. There is no supporting argument.

Of course there is further supporting data, opinion polls of future UKIP supporters intentions, statistics of current election, previous electoral movements, present socio-economic climate, etc.

What you really mean is: you choose not to draw any further conclusions.

 

[JBR]

Splendid result.

Yes, well done Mr Farage. I'd like to see UKIP taking over as the 'third party'.

My commisserations to the Limp Dems, although it has to be said that they have brought that on all by themselves.

 

[doitall]

I think it means if 86% had voted, UKIP would have got 54%.

Or are you suggesting the non voters are all related to the tory control freaks that treat the population with contempt.

Wouldn't surprise.

 

[groovynooby]

I've not checked the figures, I accepted your values as reliable... you said "With a 43% tun out and a 27% UKIP support, that means that less than 12% of UK support for UKIP. (Typical parliamentary elections achieve greater than 60% tunout)"

So, even with my rudimentary grasp of figures, this tells me that of the 43% of people who voted, 27% of those voted for UKIP, and, in my opinion it is not possible to draw further conclusions re UKIP support, I even provided you with an example as to how any conclusions could be flawed.

Could you highlight this example for me, because it appears to be lost in the text, somewhere.

I stated that, I was unable to vote but if I had been able to then I would have voted UKIP.

If you'd care to offer a 'yes or no' response to my initial statement that would be great and we need take it no further.

To which question would you like a "yes" or "no" answer?

My suggestion that 27% of voters voted UKIP and there was no further data available to conclude differently.

Just to be clear, my supportive argument is that you cannot draw further conclusions re. UKIP support as there is no supporting data.

Just to be clear, that is your assertion. There is no supporting argument.

Yes, you provided no supporting argument for the contradictory stats that you offered

Of course there is further supporting data, opinion polls of future UKIP supporters intentions, statistics of current election, previous electoral movements, present socio-economic climate, etc.

What you really mean is: you choose not to draw any further conclusions.

You chose to draw further conclusions in the absence of supporting data.

 

[jockscott]

Why is Rouge concerned with UKIP,he needs to look inward with Le Pen and Front National an anti immigrant party I believe.

Because he actually lives in Staffordshire.. Might be a big bearing on why he's so concerned about Ukip.

 

[RogueHanger]

Why is Rouge concerned with UKIP,he needs to look inward with Le Pen and Front National an anti immigrant party I believe.

I'm concerned with both. In fact I'm more concerned with France's Front National than I am with UKIP because, while UKIP is far-right libertarian (further right than Maggie Thatcher ever was), Front National are a fascist party, which, IMO, is a far-left party because it consistently invokes the primacy of the state, therefore it encompasses such ideology as communism.

Some observers would argue that fascism is a far-right party. It does also embrace some far-right ideas, but IMO it is basically far-left.
It might be beter to see political ideology as cricular rather than a straight line continuum and fascism goes full circle to embrace rar-right and far-left ideologies.

Whatever, the sad fact is that both Front National and UKIP are extremist parties. Histoy shows us what happens with the rise of extremism.

 

[RogueHanger]

I think it means if 86% had voted, UKIP would have got 54%.

Or are you suggesting the non voters are all related to the tory control freaks that treat the population with contempt.

Wouldn't surprise.

Not at all, I go along with the expert opinion that the majority of the electorate have liitle interest in EU elections, i.e. they are apathetic towards EU elections. That suggests to me that there is no over-riding concern about EU with the majoity of the electorate.