Eu panicking .........

[pete50]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...es-in-it-says-heseltine/ar-BBZk8UD?li=AAnZ9Ug

To d amn right. After the way remoaners have gone totally overboard in their criticisms of Brexit, a democratic vote that they lost fair and square. Just look at some of the comments being made by some members of this forum, some of whom are not even in this country if their profiles are to be believed, to see how remoaners have reacted. What the h ell do they expect. Bring it on Boris.

 

[EddieM]

It's 4.3333333recurring - like these threads

Sooo by the magic of simple arithmetic, the EU sans UK is only 4.3 times bigger the the EU27, add to that a near 12% reduction in contributions it looks a bit different. Ouch, possibly for all concerned.

 

[Mottie]

some of whom are not even in this country

Allegedly eh, Herme?

 

[Notch7]

Can you divide 13 by 3?

If you want to be pedantic:

2019 figures
UK 2.83

EU 18,3

EU is 5.46X bigger

But whatever figure you want to use, the reality is that the EU is multiple X bigger than the UK.

If you look at the outcomes of previous trade negotiations, the smaller side always have to make the most concessions.

The outcome of trade negotiations is determined by the aggregate of reciprocity.
Unfortunately for the UK on the 1st of Feb, it will have handed back control to the EU and at the same time finds itself alone in the world with zero trade deals.

 

[Notch7]

Sooo by the magic of simple arithmetic, the EU sans UK is only 4.3 times bigger the the EU27, add to that a near 12% reduction in contributions it looks a bit different. Ouch, possibly for all concerned.

Incorrect.

I had already adjusted for post EU gdp.

12% reductions in contributions is small compared to UKs increase in cost due to trade barriers

 

[EddieM]

If you want to be pedantic:

2019 figures
UK 2.83

EU 18,3

EU is 5.46X bigger

But whatever figure you want to use, the reality is that the EU is multiple X bigger than the UK.

If you look at the outcomes of previous trade negotiations, the smaller side always have to make the most concessions.

The outcome of trade negotiations is determined by the aggregate of reciprocity.
Unfortunately for the UK on the 1st of Feb, it will have handed back control to the EU and at the same time finds itself alone in the world with zero trade deals.

Ok, your figures seem broadly correct, apologies for that, but..... the EU still has a problem in that the UK could tariff all their financial clearings, there is nowhere in Europe that has anything approaching the scale to replicate that, and I mean nowhere near.

 

[Notch7]

Ok, your figures seem broadly correct, apologies for that, but..... the EU still has a problem in that the UK could tariff all their financial clearings, there is nowhere in Europe that has anything approaching the scale to replicate that, and I mean nowhere near.

My apologies -My original post didnt not clarify.

Clearly the Euro derivatives business is very important to the EU.

The problem for the UK is that we are handing control of that back to the EU.
Now in the short term, ESMA will grant equivalence regulatory arrangements so that clearing can continue.

But longer term ESMA will look to create nudge factors to move business to Frankfurt, Paris etc.
For example, Deutsche Boerse’s derivatives arm Eurex Clearing, have ramped up their efforts to encourage both EU and UK-based market participants to switch their business from London to the continent, including a recent offer to waive the additional booking fee imposed on any participant that relocates its derivatives trading business.

The EU control the regulations so they can manage any change to their advantage.
What they are looking to do is allow full access in the short term, build new business in Europe, then start to change the regulatory framework to encourage business to inside the single market at a pace that suits.

The UK wont be in a position to do much about it.
It can hardly refuse to trade, it will be shooting itself in the foot.

 

[Ryler]

My apologies -My original post didnt not clarify.

Clearly the Euro derivatives business is very important to the EU.

The problem for the UK is that we are handing control of that back to the EU.
Now in the short term, ESMA will grant equivalence regulatory arrangements so that clearing can continue.

But longer term ESMA will look to create nudge factors to move business to Frankfurt, Paris etc.
For example, Deutsche Boerse’s derivatives arm Eurex Clearing, have ramped up their efforts to encourage both EU and UK-based market participants to switch their business from London to the continent, including a recent offer to waive the additional booking fee imposed on any participant that relocates its derivatives trading business.

The EU control the regulations so they can manage any change to their advantage.
What they are looking to do is allow full access in the short term, build new business in Europe, then start to change the regulatory framework to encourage business to inside the single market at a pace that suits.

The UK wont be in a position to do much about it.
It can hardly refuse to trade, it will be shooting itself in the foot.

Your own links say other wise boyo....
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/...ked-out-its-people-brexit-is-the-alternative/

http://www.primeeconomics.org/articles/brexit-reflecting-the-eus-neoliberal-shift

http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/2017/06/22/the-split-in-neoliberalism-on-brexit-and-the-eu/

https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/european-culture/0/steps/23527

https://www.alternet.org/world/eu-neoliberal-nightmare

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/sep/14/neoliberal-europe-union-austerity-crisis

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-european-unions-neoliberal-dilemma-1507147154

https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...-lets-do-something-different-when-we-leave-it

Be a man and own them.

 

[ellal]

The money earned in the regions is funneled into London?

The regions are a drain on London/The South...

And will be even more so when EU regional funds are removed and the tory government 'reallocation' of funds takes place...

I thought quitters knew this, because after all they knew exactly what they were voting for...

Apparently

 

[EddieM]

The regions are a drain on London/The South...

And will be even more so when EU regional funds are removed and the tory government 'reallocation' of funds takes place...

I thought quitters knew this, because after all they knew exactly what they were voting for...

Apparently

You mean the majority South leaving vote ? Including East Sussex.

 

[EddieM]

My apologies -My original post didnt not clarify.

Clearly the Euro derivatives business is very important to the EU.

The problem for the UK is that we are handing control of that back to the EU.
Now in the short term, ESMA will grant equivalence regulatory arrangements so that clearing can continue.

But longer term ESMA will look to create nudge factors to move business to Frankfurt, Paris etc.
For example, Deutsche Boerse’s derivatives arm Eurex Clearing, have ramped up their efforts to encourage both EU and UK-based market participants to switch their business from London to the continent, including a recent offer to waive the additional booking fee imposed on any participant that relocates its derivatives trading business.

The EU control the regulations so they can manage any change to their advantage.
What they are looking to do is allow full access in the short term, build new business in Europe, then start to change the regulatory framework to encourage business to inside the single market at a pace that suits.

The UK wont be in a position to do much about it.
It can hardly refuse to trade, it will be shooting itself in the foot.

The clearing business isn't important to the EU, it's absolutely totally 100% critical to their survival, no other country comes within ****ing distance of London in that respect. Well build an alternative.... good for you ya got T+3 days trading to do it, or kiss your ass goodbye.

 

[Mottie]

I thought quitters knew this, because after all they knew exactly what they were voting for...

I'm one of your so-called 'quitters' and I thought I knew that you had quit the UK with your partner and highly educated children. Was I right or wrong about that? Do tell.

 

[IT Minion]

The clearing business isn't important to the EU, it's absolutely totally 100% critical to their survival, no other country comes within ****ing distance of London in that respect. Well build an alternative.... good for you ya got T+3 days trading to do it, or kiss your ass goodbye.

But other countries do offer it, there's no intrinsic reason it has to happen in London and the loss of it to new York or Frankfurt would hurt the UK economy and drag a lot of other financial services with it with a hit to jobs, economy and tax revenue.

That we might threaten to stop it at zero notice as a weapon to hurt them is the best reason for the EU to enact those rules about excluding us from strategically important business.

So yes, we could cut off our own nose to hurt the EU, but they could shut off some of our electricity and gas. Trying to destroy their entire financial system would not be taken well.

 

[EddieM]

But other countries do offer it, there's no intrinsic reason it has to happen in London and the loss of it to new York or Frankfurt would hurt the UK economy and drag a lot of other financial services with it with a hit to jobs, economy and tax revenue.

That we might threaten to stop it at zero notice as a weapon to hurt them is the best reason for the EU to enact those rules about excluding us from strategically important business.

So yes, we could cut off our own nose to hurt the EU, but they could shut off some of our electricity and gas. Trying to destroy their entire financial system would not be taken well.

No one in the world offers it like anything close to the scale the UK does, not even close.

 

[IT Minion]

No one in the world offers it like anything close to the scale the UK does, not even close.

Not at the moment, but they've never had a reason to scale up elsewhere. Since the Brexit vote Paris and Frankfurt have both been working to take the business and have succeeded at least in part.

That makes your threat less threatening and makes it easier to switch as they've put in place the structure needed. If we start messing them about then it'll disappear very quickly.