UK Policy of tackling covid through herd immunity

In Manchester all not urgent elective surgery has been stopped from Monday and they will be doubling their ICU capacity.

It's pretty shambolic Trusts have not been given emergency funding, and direction what to do. Without a coordinated approach there will be significant mortality differences by each trust depending on what actions they have taken.

Trusts are making their own preparations and only need to ask for the money. The government has made it clear that the whatever funding is needed will be made available.
 
Trusts are making their own preparations and only need to ask for the money. The government has made it clear that the whatever funding is needed will be made available.

Covid 19 response fund set at £5bn for all public services, not just the NHS.

They have not provided any details as yet how to secure funding and any conditions.

Trusts are making arrangement right now.
 
You are presuming / hoping a vaccine becomes availabl , and widely so.
If not, herd immunity is all we have left.
Otherwise, we're just postponing the inevitable pile of bodies.....

Not presuming or hoping. Any vaccince is 12-18 months away.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/one-simple-chart-explains-how-social-distancing-saves-lives

China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore have shown that a quick rapid response and social distancing works. All evidence points to that. Looks at the daily infection rates.

The Herd immunity tactic by out Government is essentially defeatist. They have lost containment and instead of focusing on social distancing they are trying behavioural economics and nudge theory - wash your hands and cough into your elbow. Small individual actions multiplied can create change.

The UK is one big experiment now and it could go pear shaped.

If as you say the number of deaths is inevitable then any actions are futile so why tell people to wash hands, why has he now banned mass gatherings. It's all conflicting.

"What we have is low-cost solutions to public policy challenges through “choice architecture” of society to trigger desirable shifts in behaviour.It offers an easy way of reforming society without committing to large spending programmes."

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/nudge-unit

"The Nudge Unit is working closely with the Department of Health and Social Care in crafting the government response. The most visible manifestation of its influence to date is in the communication around hand-washing and face touching – in particular the use of “disgust” as an incentive to wash hands and the suggestion of singing Happy Birthday to ensure hands are washed for the requisite 20 seconds. But it also seems to be influencing the more controversial question over when to move from “contain” to “delay” phasing. This is based on evidence about duration of compliance."

So in summary the UK Government is that client who wants it done cheaply and you would say at that pay rate you will get bodgers...

So are you willing to let your loved ones be part of an experiment?

But why are the UK government trying to do this on the cheap?
 
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I am in 2 minds about this.

I personally think there is merit in not having an immediate lock down - lets think about it, how long is that really sustainable?

There is a real risk that an immediate lock down will flatten the curve for a couple of weeks, but then if the lock down is ended, the infection rates will surge again.

The UK is staging the lock down over a longer period to resist the surge later.


This is an impossible situation for any prime minister, Im not sure criticism of the policy Johnson has taken is particularly warranted or fair
 
This is an impossible situation for any prime minister, Im not sure criticism of the policy Johnson has taken is particularly warranted or fair

I share that opinion. It is an impossible situation. Make the best of a shoite situation.
 
I am in 2 minds about this.

I personally think there is merit in not having an immediate lock down - lets think about it, how long is that really sustainable?

There is a real risk that an immediate lock down will flatten the curve for a couple of weeks, but then if the lock down is ended, the infection rates will surge again.

The UK is staging the lock down over a longer period to resist the surge later.


This is an impossible situation for any prime minister, Im not sure criticism of the policy Johnson has taken is particularly warranted or fair

The UK isn't really staging a lockdown. It's a lack of leadersip - they have let organisations to make their own mind up, these organisations are looking around what to do, the Governments reposnse is wash your hands - thats it.

Bojo words- "many people will die and many before their time" - defeatist. Yet his supporters are accepting that as an inevitability and it's why I call this current manifestation of the Conservative party a death cult.

quote-i-think-that-the-people-of-great-britain-have-had-enough-of-experts-with-organisations-michael-gove-154-54-34.jpg
 
This is an impossible situation for any prime minister, Im not sure criticism of the policy Johnson has taken is particularly warranted or fair

He has opted for an experimental approach in direct contrast to other countries. So that is his call, yet he wants to be flanked by experts.

 
So why have the cancelled all events at Parliament? I thought herd immunity required high rates of infection of at least 60% or 40million people.
 
So lets look at some numbers.


UK pop: 66 million

60-70% infected, so 40-46 million people

Using the lower numbers

2 million needing ICU care (5%)

Total ICU beds in UK: 4000

Typical ICU bed occupancy rate: 75% or higher

Typical available ICU beds: 1000

Typical duration in ICU for Covid: 2 weeks - treat about 26k patients a yr.

So herd immunity means having no ICU care and die.
 
https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1238411563041726469

NEW: In an internal email detailing coronavirus response which includes restricting travel and WFH provisions, the Daily Mail's head of HR writes- "The global position is moving so fast that the official government advice is no longer adequate enough to safeguard our staff"

Now, from the Daily Mail's leader today: "Striking the right tone at this press conference was not easy, but Boris and his boffins carried it off well. At this stage, we must trust their judgment and do as they say."

RWR lap up the lies when the DM hides their own views.
 
The governments strategy has been clear from the start. No need for cancelling large gatherings yet as our curve is 4 weeks behind the Italians and their experts' modelling supports that.
Lack of leadership is the CEO's of major sporting organisations shutting down their sporting fixtures without medical/scientific reasoning.
Good leadership would have been to reassure all the fans and have trust in the experts.
The WRU for example cancelled the Wales v Scotland 6N fixture less than 24hrs before kick off, after many thousands of Scots had already travelled to South Wales for the game. The CEO admitted he didn't follow any medical advice, only to mirror the fact that the major football organisations had stopped playing. That's not leadership, that's a lemming mentality.
Whilst the PL and EFL football have postponed all football until April (how they came up with that ridiculous date is anybodies guess), the lower leagues continue to play. That suggests that elite sports are more at risk than the peasants.
Boris has made absolutely clear his government's Coronovirus strategy, as informed admirably in several TV/media briefings. Its those who continue to berate Boris as an individual who keep sniping at the strategy, seek continuous clarity and feed confusion.
 
The governments strategy has been clear from the start. No need for cancelling large gatherings yet as our curve is 4 weeks behind the Italians and their experts' modelling supports that.
Lack of leadership is the CEO's of major sporting organisations shutting down their sporting fixtures without medical/scientific reasoning.
Good leadership would have been to reassure all the fans and have trust in the experts.
The WRU for example cancelled the Wales v Scotland 6N fixture less than 24hrs before kick off, after many thousands of Scots had already travelled to South Wales for the game. The CEO admitted he didn't follow any medical advice, only to mirror the fact that the major football organisations had stopped playing. That's not leadership, that's a lemming mentality.
Whilst the PL and EFL football have postponed all football until April (how they came up with that ridiculous date is anybodies guess), the lower leagues continue to play. That suggests that elite sports are more at risk than the peasants.
Boris has made absolutely clear his government's Coronovirus strategy, as informed admirably in several TV/media briefings. Its those who continue to berate Boris as an individual who keep sniping at the strategy, seek continuous clarity and feed confusion.

Well bloody get infected soon then. Are you over 60? Smoker? Any underlying health conditions?

Know anyone who meets those criteria? If so, say you wanted them to get ill.
 
So lets look at some numbers.


UK pop: 66 million

60-70% infected, so 40-46 million people

Using the lower numbers

2 million needing ICU care (5%)

Total ICU beds in UK: 4000

Typical ICU bed occupancy rate: 75% or higher

Typical available ICU beds: 1000

Typical duration in ICU for Covid: 2 weeks - treat about 26k patients a yr.

So herd immunity means having no ICU care and die.


What is the alternative? There is no vaccine.
 
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