3 Tier system or circuit breaker lockdown?

[Notch7]

I really haven't a clue what's best (least worst) now......

3 Tier system seems to set up regional them and us arguments.

National lockdown seems a bit crazy if say Cornwall has almost zero infection rate and Manchester loads.

 

[bernardgreen]

Self imposed lockdown. Extract from HISTORY

The history of the plague in the village began in 1665 when a flea-infested bundle of cloth arrived from London for Alexander Hadfield, the local tailor. Within a week his assistant George Viccars, who noticing the bundle was damp, had opened it up. Before long he was dead and more began dying in the household soon after.

As the disease spread, the villagers turned for leadership to their rector, the Reverend William Mompesson, and the ejected Puritan minister Thomas Stanley. They introduced a number of precautions to slow the spread of the illness from May 1666. The measures included the arrangement that families were to bury their own dead and relocation of church services to the natural amphitheatre of Cucklett Delph, allowing villagers to separate themselves and so reducing the risk of infection. Perhaps the best-known decision was to quarantine the entire village to prevent further spread of the disease. Merchants from surrounding villages sent supplies that they would leave on marked rocks; the villagers then made holes there which they would fill with vinegar to disinfect the money left as payment.

The plague ran its course over 14 months and one account states that it killed at least 260 villagers, with only 83 surviving out of a population of 350. That figure has been challenged on a number of occasions, with alternative figures of 430 survivors from a population of around 800 being given. The church in Eyam has a record of 273 individuals who were victims of the plague.

Survival among those affected appeared random, as many who remained alive had close contact with those who died but never caught the disease. For example, Elizabeth Hancock was uninfected despite burying six children and her husband in eight days. The graves are known as the Riley graves after the farm where they lived. The unofficial village gravedigger, Marshall Howe, also survived, despite handling many infected bodies.

The village's actions prevented the disease from moving into surrounding areas.

 

[IT Minion]

Given that Tier 3 isn't expected to drop infections below 1 a better question would be: When do we get tier 4?

 

[Notch7]

Given that Tier 3 isn't expected to drop infections below 1 a better question would be: When do we get tier 4?

Good point.

My understanding is that getting R below 1 is considered pretty impossible, so the goal is to just keep the economy going with a manageable level of infection.

of course mass test and trace would mean almost no lockdown measures.

 

[fillyboy]

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/welsh-install-scouse-detectors-20201015201479

THE Welsh have installed a network of foolproof Scouse-detectors along their northern border.

The detectors, which cover every road and path into the country from Shotwick down to Hay-on-Wye, can instantly detect any Liverpudlian incursion and alert police.

First minister Mark Drakeford said: “Sensitive microphones are trained on every border crossing. At the same time, we’ve erected signs on roadsides asking questions like ‘Who’s the best Beatle?’ and ‘Our Cilla, eh?’.

“It’s impossible for a Scouser to pass one without bursting into voluble argument, tribute or tears. They simply can’t do it. The mics pick it up and they’re stopped by our roadblocks before they reach the chorus of ‘Hey Jude’.

“The system is infallible. Even the most committed Liverpool fan can’t not mutter ‘Learnt everything he knows on the streets of Croxteth, la’ when passing a billboard of Wayne Rooney.

“And by covering our borders with a load of Scouse rubbish we’re successfully repelling everyone from the Greater Manchester area as well. It’s win-win.”

Tom Logan of Birkenhead said: “It’s discriminatory and unfair. And that sign’s right, John Bishop’s funnier than Peter Kay any day. He’s boss.”

 

[IT Minion]

Good point.

My understanding is that getting R below 1 is considered pretty impossible, so the goal is to just keep the economy going with a manageable level of infection.

of course mass test and trace would mean almost no lockdown measures.

We can get R below 1, we did that post lockdown. But the measures announced can't do it.

If we choose not to get R below one then we must inevitably get to a point where we pass the first wave in terms of infections and hospital visits and deaths.

The current system will change again, the only questions are when do we hear about tier 4 and 5, and so we do anything as a nation ever again.

In theory moonshot, or a vaccine could come along and drop R below 1 with the current measures before we pass the first wave numbers but that seems optimistic at best.

 

[Notch7]

We can get R below 1, we did that post lockdown.

I think thats the problem though, a national R value still leaves localised R above 1

having looked at the methodology for R value calculating its pretty difficult to do, it seems the govt have adopted the R value as a political tool as its an usefully simple way to communicate to the public, despite it being a fair bit of guesswork.

I agree on the "when do we get to R4 and R5....." -it wouldnt be necessary with mass test and trace

Interestingly I know a clinician in a medway hospital -they are getting loads of operation cancelled -patient gets covid test, test results never arrive in time for operation.

my local hospital trust has set up their own testing lab and can get results immediately

my nephew is at Southhampton uni -theyve bought a PCR covid test machine and are able to test very frequently

i think the UK needs to set up local testing and ignore the lighthouse labs

 

[durhamplumber]

I really haven't a clue what's best (least worst) now......

3 Tier system seems to set up regional them and us arguments.

National lockdown seems a bit crazy if say Cornwall has almost zero infection rate and Manchester loads.

Rest assured tho Notch...You will be telling us our Govt made a hash of it whatever they do.

 

[fillyboy]

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/relationships/tier-one-girl-loves-tier-three-boy-20201013201427

Tier One girl loves Tier Three boy

A PAIR of lovers born in different tiers are doomed never to be together, they have confirmed.

Grace Wood-Morris of Whitchurch in Shropshire and Oliver O’Connor of Neston in the Wirral live only 33 miles apart, but because they dwell in different tiers can never physically meet.

She said: “We yearn for each other. Every night I kiss his beautiful face on my iPad screen. But we are separated not just by one tier, but by two.

“My parents have warned me that our love is forbidden. They tell me to give up on Oli, that his lockdown will never lift, that I should find a local boy I can meet outside for socially-distanced government-sanctioned passion. But I cannot give up on my heart.”

O’Connor agreed: “I know I should accept the truth. That I will never be able to spend time with Grace because I am not allowed to meet other households outside.

“But even though I’m tier three, she is the one for me. She loves me regardless of my pariah status. Even if it means I must fight an army of Covid marshals single-handed, I will never give up on her.”

He added: “And besides, I can’t meet any other birds because Boris has shut all the pubs.”

 

[bernardgreen]

A PAIR of lovers born in different tiers are doomed never to be together, they have confirmed

Sounds like tears all round then

 

[Brigadier]

of course mass test and trace would mean almost no lockdown measures.

You keep trotting this line out so , given that 2/3 to 3/4 of infected persons are asymptomatic, would you please explain how it is true?

 

[Doug99]

THEY SHALL NOT PASS - Welsh security now manning the Severn Bridge.

 

[Trazor]

View attachment 208314

THEY SHALL NOT PASS - Welsh security now manning the Severn Bridge.

Wonderful and stirring film, no doubt the PC bunch will tear it apart.

 

[IT Minion]

You keep trotting this line out so , given that 2/3 to 3/4 of infected persons are asymptomatic, would you please explain how it is true?

We'd be able to do test and trace the way most other nations seem to do it, where contacts are tested not just isolated.

Whenever you get a positive result you hammer the contacts with tests and with mass testing you can be very heavy handed so you do get the asymptomatic cases.

You also can do screening, so for example all of Manchester could have tests over a period of a week. That means you can find asymptomatic cases and root them out.

Remember, it doesn't have to be perfect, just good enough.

 

[transam]

Must admit I would go with that Andy Burnham in Manchester who us basically telling the government to go and do one
Unless they up the financial support