New Covid rules for the UK coming into effect for...

andy11 said:
Notch you never answered why Ferguson's predictions were so wrong on:
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They were not wrong as there was a series of them so some loons decided to mention the do nothing about covid one - just let it run riot. At the time others were saying don't worry it's just flu, more die of that every year which is even more total garbage.

LOL They could have picked a number of people - many of these who are the people who were actually involved.
  • Professor Sir Peter Horby (Chair): University of Oxford
  • Professor Wendy Barclay: Imperial College London
  • Professor John Edmunds: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Professor Neil Ferguson: Medical Research Council, Imperial College London
  • Professor Andrew Hayward: University College London
  • Dr Benjamin Killingley: University College London Hospital NHS Trust
  • Professor Wei Shen Lim: Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust
  • Dr Jim McMenamin: Health Protection Scotland
  • Professor Peter Openshaw: Imperial College London
  • Professor Malcolm Semple: University of Liverpool
  • Dr James Rubin: Kings College London
  • Dr Cariad Evans: Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
  • Dr Chloe Sellwood: Co-opted member, NHS England and NHS Improvement
  • Professor Ian Brown: Co-opted member, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA)
  • Dr Lisa Ritchie: Co-opted member, NHS England and NHS Improvement
  • Professor Julian Hiscox: Temporary co-opted member for COVID-19, University of Liverpool
  • Dr Muge Cevik: Temporary co-opted member for COVID-19, University of St Andrews
  • Professor Ravindra Gupta: Temporary co-opted member for COVID-19, University of Cambridge

Anyway according to some pundits we are all going to catch it. The only question for an individual is when.
 
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andy11 said:
Add to these his recent prediction that there will be 3,000 deaths a day from omicron by January.

This is very important because it's his incorrect predictions that all the restrictions have been based on since the start. I won't let you off the hook you wriggler
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it’s simple.

Ferguson never predicted 3000 deaths a day

I believe I posted the study he did that was released in Dec, if not I will re post.
 
Notch7 said:
Ferguson never predicted 3000 deaths a day
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I usually refer to the predictions that May had in her hand when she stood up and commented on them. "Some of these numbers are extremely large" They related to what might be done about covid in the state it was at that time. It was also his lot that said if something isn't done the NHS will be overwhelmed - first lock down. Later he mentioned what would have happened if it had been done earlier. He may have been saying do something earlier but it's not his decision.

There is another aspect as well. Very early on the only longer term info that was available was from China but that was more than enough to show what that would mean here especially if nothing was done at all. Numbers would just keep rising. Death rates were known from the same source. Inability to treat people is a bit of an unknown but clearly more would die. China allowed the new year celebrations, results a big spike. What could not be done here is apply the same form of lockdown so easily or even take some of their other actions. Demographics for one thing are totally different here. They can lock down a city. We tried that here and it didn't work because too many travel into them so briefly tried locking down the entire SE. Any time this sort of thing is mentioned the same comment is made - people will just travel out of the area, might even mean just walking further along a street or crossing one. :ROFLMAO: Irrelevant because some wont. Those people will help produce the desired result.
 
ajohn said:
They were not wrong as there was a series of them so some loons decided to mention the do nothing about covid one - just let it run riot. At the time others were saying don't worry it's just flu, more die of that every year which is even more total garbage.

LOL They could have picked a number of people - many of these who are the people who were actually involved.
  • Professor Sir Peter Horby (Chair): University of Oxford
  • Professor Wendy Barclay: Imperial College London
  • Professor John Edmunds: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
  • Professor Neil Ferguson: Medical Research Council, Imperial College London
  • Professor Andrew Hayward: University College London
  • Dr Benjamin Killingley: University College London Hospital NHS Trust
  • Professor Wei Shen Lim: Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust
  • Dr Jim McMenamin: Health Protection Scotland
  • Professor Peter Openshaw: Imperial College London
  • Professor Malcolm Semple: University of Liverpool
  • Dr James Rubin: Kings College London
  • Dr Cariad Evans: Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
  • Dr Chloe Sellwood: Co-opted member, NHS England and NHS Improvement
  • Professor Ian Brown: Co-opted member, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA)
  • Dr Lisa Ritchie: Co-opted member, NHS England and NHS Improvement
  • Professor Julian Hiscox: Temporary co-opted member for COVID-19, University of Liverpool
  • Dr Muge Cevik: Temporary co-opted member for COVID-19, University of St Andrews
  • Professor Ravindra Gupta: Temporary co-opted member for COVID-19, University of Cambridge

Anyway according to some pundits we are all going to catch it. The only question for an individual is when.
Click to expand...
Lots of professors in that list. Most people think that a 'professor' means that it's a qualification. It isn't. It's just a job title.
 
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Fergie's report has been linked a couple of times - easy to find anyway. He makes excuses for his 'silly' numbers at the "do nothing" end in a recent youtube clip.
Expert pundits elsewhere, eg SA, quited the median expectation. It turned out they overestimated the damage, but not by much.
Ordinary folk do something between running to obey crazy headlines, and sneering at them for exaggerating.

Whitty is only slightly less guilty with his claim about having the same position if you have double number of half as serious cases. That's only a small part of the picture. As I mentioned above. It's not the same position overall. Same excuse I dare say.

I note today that there's talk of *sending people home early with "some equipment". That could I guess be a CPAP machine or Oxy concentrator or a blood SpO2 meter.
The reason for that is clear if you've ever seen load progressions.

I've run some numbers which unfortunately the stupid knobs here would try to take the p out of, so if you want to see/discuss you'll have to ask and I'll post it somewhere. (And ajohn would probably think I got the maths wrong where I didn't, again ;).)
So if you want to sneer, troll etc, post your own analysis.

These aren't "obvious at first thought" so don't just state they're wrong:
I used number of days in hosp as an indicator of severity, using SA figures, which are simple rounded numbers. Even if they're not accurate the same trends come out.

1) Lower severity (ie omicron versus delta) means the peaks of both of hospital load, and number of beds taken, comes proportionately sooner, and the duration of the peak is longer, ending near the same time as delta would have.

2) Peak number of beds used, is proportional to
case numbers in community x proportion of those being admitted (SA was 30%) x severity (SA was about 1/3rd).. So something like 0.1 x case numbers in community compared with delta.

3) Peak integrated hospital load per patient, is not a simple multiple but rises disproportionately fast with severity because there are factors in there for attention needed x number of days. You could get a large multiple for delta, like 6, or over *10 if you send people home early for both. That depends how much more effort the hospital expends on a someone say in ITU or a ventilator than someone only on passive O2.

2) and 3) combined lead to a big number less (ie here >(10 x 6=)60 x) total hospital load for omicron. Though to repeat, you don't combine them for beds used.

Unfortunately the number of medics isolating is proportional to community numbers. Therefore HMGs change in the isolation requirement makes a lot of sense.
 
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ajohn said:
I usually refer to the predictions that May had in her hand when she stood up and commented on them. "Some of these numbers are extremely large" They related to what might be done about covid in the state it was at that time. It was also his lot that said if something isn't done the NHS will be overwhelmed - first lock down. Later he mentioned what would have happened if it had been done earlier. He may have been saying do something earlier but it's not his decision.

There is another aspect as well. Very early on the only longer term info that was available was from China but that was more than enough to show what that would mean here especially if nothing was done at all. Numbers would just keep rising. Death rates were known from the same source. Inability to treat people is a bit of an unknown but clearly more would die. China allowed the new year celebrations, results a big spike. What could not be done here is apply the same form of lockdown so easily or even take some of their other actions. Demographics for one thing are totally different here. They can lock down a city. We tried that here and it didn't work because too many travel into them so briefly tried locking down the entire SE. Any time this sort of thing is mentioned the same comment is made - people will just travel out of the area, might even mean just walking further along a street or crossing one. :ROFLMAO: Irrelevant because some wont. Those people will help produce the desired result.
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Some of that early scare, to be fair, probably came from the figure I came across, quoted here recently, for 5.6% morbidity for covid19. That for the Wuhan strain was way too high, we know now.
Whitty gave a good talk well before covid came along, giving scary numbers for possibilities in the case of virus transfer to humans. It's salutory to watch now, I can find it if anyone's interested. Looking back at Sars 1 and Mers, and some bat viruses, new viruses could wipe out plague numbers.
 
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Mottie said:
Lots of professors in that list. Most people think that a 'professor' means that it's a qualification. It isn't. It's just a job title.
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Just like Neurosurgeon, or Rocket Scientist.

They all require a certain level of qualification.
 
Justin Passing said:
Some of that early scare, to be fair, probably came from the figure I came across, quoted here recently, for 5.6% morbidity for covid19. That for the Wuhan strain was way too high, we know now.
Click to expand...

They will have had a fair idea of mortality rates from china but in terms of lock downs etc death is a secondary aspect. The main problem is being able to treat people that need it. No health system is a bottomless pit in terms of capacity and ours is not one of the most healthiest ones around. Most everywhere have been suffering to some extent from lack of funds and staffing. They ran a simulation of an epidemic. The results were never published. It seems from odd comments they were disastrous.

The surprise when hospitals once they were heavily involved was the age of people that needed more serious treatment. Younger than expected. That could be down to different demographics in China. There was no way we could follow their lockdown techniques either. All add to uncertainty.

Personally I like Fergy. I've seen him on the box 3 times and he never faffs about. Points get made and he gives direct answers. Wish we saw more of him in some ways. C4 interviewed him twice and he was on an early panel type prog on the BBC. The only one that mentioned the economy and some of the problems dealing with it. The rest were a waste of space. That list by the was is NERVTAG. Not SAGE which he was on but resigned.

Politicians - well look at the rather recently made changes. The sensible thing to do but not the reason which is simple. PCR can not cope with current numbers. LFT may struggle as well. Oh we have ordered more so not a problem. There was even some mention from that lot of boosting PCR, Well we know how long that took.
 
andy11 said:
Ferguson's prediction of 3000 deaths a day was a best case scenario, and with restrictions
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he didn’t make that prediction, it’s not mentioned anywhere in the study

You are welcome to try and show where it says “best case scenario”






here is the full report

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2021-12-16-COVID19-Report-49.pdf

here is the Imperial college report summary

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-49-Omicron/
 
Justin Passing said:
blood SpO2 meter.
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That has already been done. People sit at home and take readings with them and post on a web page. 1 nurse can monitor a lot of people and decide if and when to call them in.
There was talk of rolling it out extensively to older people who ever those are.
 
Notch7 said:
he didn’t make that prediction, it’s not mentioned anywhere in the study

You are welcome to try and show where it says “best case scenario”






here is the full report

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2021-12-16-COVID19-Report-49.pdf

here is the Imperial college report summary

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-49-Omicron/
Click to expand...

Interesting. It sounds like Omicron may settle the reinfection question. Anyway he clearly states that currently due to time info is scant.

That wont satisfy Enoch though. What is needed is what May was looking at which should be around somewhere or the other.

LOL Given some of his posts he doesn't understand Enoch either. That bloke was branded as a racist for discussing aspects of something that was actually going on. Not popular with other politicians as it is so easy to stir people up on subjects like immigration. :As has been demonstrated in fairly recent years. Not all but a significant number and that spreads it even further.
 
EFLImpudence said:
It's good to know that 122.4% are vaccinated.


19.2% with two jabs
51.6% with three jabs
29.2% no jabs. Is that correct?

I thought it was more than 70.8% with at least two jabs.
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Slightly less than 29.2% of the population with no jabs, some have only had one.

The Guardian numbers are of the total UK population, so includes people who aren't expected to be vaccinated.
 
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