Could the outcome of NI the election be the real beginnings of reunification?

[fillyboy]

WRONG

the UK and EU agreed to a customs border and signed an international agreement.
if the UK renege, it will have a trade war with its biggest trade partner.

They did sign an international agreement, however, there was a safeguard clause within that agreement.

Article 16 of the protocol is a safeguard clause within the Northern Ireland Protocol that allows either party to take unilateral "strictly necessary" measures if applying the protocol "leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade ".

 

[fillyboy]

They should be able to hold referendums in ROI and NI, and if both say they want to unite, let them get on with it.

That's pretty much what it says in the Good Friday Agreement.

 

[JP_]

That's pretty much what it says in the Good Friday Agreement.

So, get on with it then. I'd like to see a united Ireland, I think the whole nation would be better for it. But I don't suspect a referendum would vote for it. But like Brexit, once you have the vote, you can then close the matter and move on, again.

 

[Charlie George]

They should be able to hold referendums in ROI and NI, and if both say they want to unite, let them get on with it.

Nationalist parties got 36% of the vote, nobody would want a referendum yet, if they lost (most likely) it would be many many years before another one, if you gave them the option of one next year they would refuse.

 

[ellal]

The reason for the creation of the N. I. Protocol was to prevent the creation of a land border between the EU and the UK.
The rationale behind this idea was allegedly to protect the Belfast/GF agreement and the threat of violence from those opposed to a land border in Ireland.

Nothing 'allegedly' about it...

But would you care to tell us the source(s) of this 'threat of violence'?

The EU/Ireland side, or the UK side?

Republicans or loyalists?

It's not 'blackmail', it's the reality of the brexit c*ck up which was signaled well in advance of the referendum...

But sadly many a brexiteer were ok with the prospect of a return to violence in N.I. saying it was a price worth paying to 'get brexit done'...

If you want to claim 'blackmail', then you are as usual looking in the wrong place!

 

[Vinty]

But would you care to tell us the source(s) of this 'threat of violence'?

Who do you think.

 

[Notch7]

They did sign an international agreement, however, there was a safeguard clause within that agreement.

Article 16 of the protocol is a safeguard clause within the Northern Ireland Protocol that allows either party to take unilateral "strictly necessary" measures if applying the protocol "leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade ".

The safeguard clause does not allow the United Kingdom to revoke the NIP or break parts it doesn’t like.
what would be the point of an international treaty that can just be ignored?

all it does is start a consultation period, which the UK would lose….hence why it will never invoke it.

Please read what it actually says.

here is article 16 in full:
I have highlighted the salient parts…….


1. If the application of this Protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade, the Union or the United Kingdom may unilaterally take appropriate safeguard measures. Such safeguard measures shall be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to remedy the situation. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of this Protocol.
2. If a safeguard measure taken by the Union or the United Kingdom, as the case may be, in accordance with paragraph 1 creates an imbalance between the rights and obligations under this Protocol, the Union or the United Kingdom, as the case may be, may take such proportionate rebalancing measures as are strictly necessary to remedy the imbalance. Priority shall be given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of this Protocol.
3. Safeguard and rebalancing measures taken in accordance with paragraphs 1 and 2 shall be governed by the procedures set out in Annex 7 to this Protocol

annex 7
PROCEDURES REFERRED TO IN ARTICLE 16(3)
1. Where the Union or the United Kingdom is considering taking safeguard measures under Article 16(1) of this Protocol, it shall, without delay, notify the Union or the United Kingdom, as the case may be, through the Joint Committee and shall provide all relevant information.
2. The Union and the United Kingdom shall immediately enter into consultations in the Joint Committee with a view to finding a commonly acceptable solution.
3. The Union or the United Kingdom, as the case may be, may not take safeguard measures until 1 month has elapsed after the date of notification under point 1, unless the consultation procedure under point 2 has been concluded before the expiration of the state limit. When exceptional circumstances requiring immediate action exclude prior examination, the Union or the United Kingdom, as the case may be, may apply forthwith the protective measures strictly necessary to remedy the situation.
4. The Union or the United Kingdom, as the case may be, shall, without delay, notify the measures taken to the Joint Committee and shall provide all relevant information.
5. The safeguard measures taken shall be the subject of consultations in the Joint Committee every 3 months from the date of their adoption with a view to their abolition before the date of expiry envisaged, or to the limitation of their scope of application. The Union or the United Kingdom, as the case may be, may at any time request the Joint Committee to review such measures.
6. Points 1 to 5 shall apply, mutatis mutandis, to rebalancing measures referred to in Article 16(2) of this Protocol

 

[Notch7]

Nationalist parties got 36% of the vote, nobody would want a referendum yet, if they lost (most likely) it would be many many years before another one, if you gave them the option of one next year they would refuse.

indeed, Sinn Fein didn’t campaign on it and they’ve said it’s not a priority.

what is historic is it’s the first time a Nationalist Party has biggest majority - although only minority of the total vote

 

[Vinty]

however it’s a milestone that NI has a majority political party which is pro United Ireland

Sorry Notch.
Total boll ocks ...for starters the nationalist parties aren't even the biggest political grouping in stormont ...the unionists are with 37 seats to their 35 ....further more in order to get a border poll the secretary of state has to have proven to him that the majority of those sitting at stormont are in favour of a border poll taking place before he will authorise it, .....that means holding 46 seats and as you can see the nationalists aren't even close to that number, .......11 short in fact ...that means that either them or the SDLP having maxed out the number of seats they can win in their own areas, are going to have to try to win those additional seats in Unionist and loyalist areas by challenging the Alliance party who get most of their seats in Unionist areas ...all I can say is good luck with that......and on that basis there is zero chance of a border poll ever ..being put to the people of northern Ireland ....not now not ever and theres the real reality. Bottomline here, Sinn Fein only topped the poll because moderate Unionists effectively handed 7 seats to the Alliance party on a plate by way of a protest vote over Donaldson's handling of the protocol ... let's see what happens in the next Stormont election before getting carried away about reunification.

 

[IT Minion]

Unless the Alliance party fall even further out of love with the Union. Historically the other parties have been too small to matter. They matter now.

I don't think NI are ready or interested in joining the rest of their island. Not yet.

Unfortunately the sectarian nutjobs are still too prevalent and so NI, and to a lesser degree the UK suffer for it.

 

[Notch7]

Sorry Notch.
Total boll ocks ...for starters the nationalist parties aren't even the biggest political grouping in stormont ...the unionists are with 37 seats to their 35 ....further more in order to get a border poll the secretary of state has to have proven to him that the majority of those sitting at stormont are in favour of a border poll taking place before he will authorise it, .....that means holding 46 seats and as you can see the nationalists aren't even close to that number, .......11 short in fact ...that means that either them or the SDLP having maxed out the number of seats they can win in their own areas, are going to have to try to win those additional seats in Unionist and loyalist areas by challenging the Alliance party who get most of their seats in Unionist areas ...all I can say is good luck with that......and on that basis there is zero chance of a border poll ever ..being put to the people of northern Ireland ....not now not ever and theres the real reality. Bottomline here, Sinn Fein only topped the poll because moderate Unionists effectively handed 7 seats to the Alliance party on a plate by way of a protest vote over Donaldson's handling of the protocol ... let's see what happens in the next Stormont election before getting carried away about reunification.

well you best take it up with Sky, as they seem to know more than you:


Sinn Fein becomes biggest party in Northern Ireland after historic win




Poor Vinty, your stomach acid is eating you alive….it’s started to dawn on you: your Brexit vote has done more for Ireland reunification for a hundred years or more


Hey Vinty, some more unpleasant news:

However, demographic trends continue to favour the latter. Sinn Féin’s achievement has long been predicted, and unionists must realise that there will be no return to their past dominance


https://theconversation.com/norther...ionists-things-may-not-be-as-they-seem-182652

 

[Notch7]

Vinty says he can’t wait for the day he is ruled by Dublin

 

[ajohn]

To check DUP style view % another party needs to be included in the count. I'm not sure what the difference in policy is. The real increase in voting levels is likely to be the party that stays out of both views on unification. I believe they came 3rd but this isn't an area I have followed that closely.

The other question was some doubt about the south accepting unification. Not mentioned much but Dublin had it's own bombings. UVF. That sort of area and other complication might influence their views. Not much was said other than the question of if they would accept it.

 

[Deleted member 174758]

The EU was quite prepared to erect a land in Ireland when it threatened to invoke article 16 during the covid crisis.

It is up to the EU to protect its own border.

They will do - by imposing GATT tarriffs on everything we still export (vere less) and by sanctioning exports to us. Nothing major, just stuff like food... That mostly comes through France and Belgium, so no nned to worry about NI

The EU has already started one war in Ukraine and now they seem to be prepared to start another in Ireland.

And there was me thinking that it was Russia that had gone to war because of the deranged vision of it's autocratic leader

 

[Vinty]

well you best take it up with Sky, as they seem to know more than you:


Sinn Fein becomes biggest party in Northern Ireland after historic win




Poor Vinty, your stomach acid is eating you alive….it’s started to dawn on you: your Brexit vote has done more for Ireland reunification for a hundred years or more


Hey Vinty, some more unpleasant news:

However, demographic trends continue to favour the latter. Sinn Féin’s achievement has long been predicted, and unionists must realise that there will be no return to their past dominance


https://theconversation.com/norther...ionists-things-may-not-be-as-they-seem-182652

What is with people like you that you allow your hatred to blind you to reality.
I have watched with amusement the latest anti protestant nonsense churned out by the media, all the hyperbole about a Nationalist landslide, political earthquake, seismic result, blah, blah.
Despite explaining to you that Sinn Fein had 27 seats before the election, after the election Sinn Fein still has only 27 seats out of 90 seats at the assembly, you still insist on doing your Lord Haw Haw impersonation.


The reason Sinn Fein are technically the largest party is because the DUP lost 3 seats because Unionists switched their votes to other Unionist parties or the cross community Alliance party.
The Arithmetic hasn't really changed, Nationalists still only have 35 seats out of 90 seats.