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[Notch7]

I await his evidence that 2025 has been unusually mild. It hasn't we've had an unusual amount of Northerlies

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/summaries/mwr_2025_01_for_print.pdf

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/summaries/mwr_2025_02_for_print.pdf

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/summaries/mwr_2025_03_for_print.pdf

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/summaries/mwr_2025_04_for_print.pdf

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3I4T9/full.png

Motorbiking when are you going to show me your evidence that the storms you mentioned were from 2025

here are the ones you claimed:
Storm Éowyn
Storm Dennis
Storm Louis
Storm Fergus

I thought you might say that.

So

Storm Éowyn
Storm Dennis
Storm Louis
Storm Fergus

Never happened

Highway Man and Pete look rather silly thanking your post which was a bunch of lies

 

[Notch7]

I doubt anyone would argue about sailing boats across the chanel with you, or more fool them.

Motorbiking lies so its easy to catch him out...............I just use something called facts

 

[Highway Man]

Motorbiking lies so its easy to catch him out...............I just use something called facts

As he is a sailor and crosses the chanel himself, I would put him down as an expert on such matters.

 

[pete01]

Motorbiking lies so its easy to catch him out...............I just use something called facts

Facts....erm I was thinking about buying some premium bonds, what's the max you can buy again?

 

[motorbiking]

Motorbiking when are you going to show me your evidence that the storms you mentioned were from 2025

here are the ones you claimed:
Storm Éowyn
Storm Dennis
Storm Louis
Storm Fergus



Highway Man and Pete look rather silly thanking your post which was a bunch of lies

We are waiting for you to prove that 2025 has had unusually mild weather - I've posted all the relevant storms and wind speeds for the last 5 years. This was my post you commented on.

Motorbiking lies so its easy to catch him out...............I just use something called facts

Facts you say?


We are also waiting for you to back up your claim that we have not had record illegal migration this year.
33% higher year to date than 2024 and 60% higher YTD compared to the previous highest year 2022.

or were you posting lies?

 

[motorbiking]

No we haven’t

still waiting..

 

[Notch7]

legal - I've even quoted the laws

WRONG

youve quoted the law based solely no the basis that the vessel is not in distress

if the vessel is in distress push backs are illegal as there is an obligation to rescue -a point you wilfully and dishonestly continue to avoid addressing

People in distress in French waters - legal see above

not legal

it requires permission from France

've posted the avg. wind speeds for the last 5 years and all the storms you might argue influenced them. There was no error.

you lied

you quoted 4 storms 3 of which were from previous years

do the decent thing and admit it

I've posted the avg. wind speeds for the last 5 years

no you have not

It hasn't we've had an unusual amount of Northerlies

without evidence showing comparison, that is just opinion

You are welcome to provide evidence that 2025 has been unusually mild YTD

dishonest, I never used the words "unusually mild"

please avoid strawman logical fallacies

and yes evidence shows it has been mild:

from the Met office:

Seasonal Assessment – Winter 2025
The following represents a provisional assessment of the weather experienced across the UK during Winter 2025 (December 2024, January and February 2025) and how it compares with the 1991 to 2020 average.

"Winter has been milder than average overall"

 

[Notch7]

We are also waiting for you to back up your claim that we have not had record illegal migration this year.
33% higher year to date than 2024 and 60% higher YTD compared to the previous highest year 2022.

based on number of migrants per month, 2025 has had significantly less migration than 2022

 

[Notch7]

It was working, the data says so

there is no data that proves the Rwanda scheme was working

correlation is not causation

if you want to claim the data says so, you need to support your argument with causation evidence. You cant. You are just bumping yer gums

 

[motorbiking]

based on number of migrants per month, 2025 has had significantly less migration than 2022

Nonsense - In case you are unaware we are in May, so the only comparison you can make is YTD.

and its bad news for you claims 33% higher than 2024 YTD and 60% higher than 2022.

 

[Deleted member 323070]

Thanks. But that link didn't really have what I wanted to know

Are we talking about people who entered the UK legally, on some sort of visa. And then travel to Ireland, via Northern Ireland, in order to claim asylum in Ireland.

Or are we talking about people who arrived on small boats and then made their way to Ireland as above.

As only about 30% of the small boat arrivals comprise the total asylum seeker numbers, I think it's fair to assume that that percentage is represented by those in Ireland.
Of course you could assume that the small boat arrivals are under much more monitoring, but I think that would be a silly assumption.

 

[Deleted member 323070]

high seas? This is the English Channel, not the Atlantic

You'll be ready to post an analysis of sea state in the English Channel Week by week for the past 5 years to argue it's the weather. Btw. Your favourite AI can help.

| Month | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| ----- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | - |
| Jan | 8.1 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 7.3 | |
| Feb | 8.6 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 8.1 | |
| Mar | 7.8 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 7.5 | |
| Apr | 6.4 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 8.5 | |
| May | 8.8 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | |
| Jun | 5.4 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | |
| Jul | 5.4 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 6.1 | |
| Aug | 6.3 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 6.5 | |
| Sep | 5.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 6.5 | |
| Oct | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.8 | |
| Nov | 7.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 6.6 | |
| Dec | 10.0 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 9.4 | |

Doesn't help you though. Given 2025, we've had plenty of bad weather.

It's your argument, you do the work, rather than present a hypothesis and wait for it to be dismantled.

Feel free to check it yourself.

Erm, no thanks. Your link is suspect.

 

[pete01]

Come on Starmer do as Nigel tells you...

 

[noseall]

Motorbiking lies so its easy

Lying scumbag.

 

[pete01]

Lying scumbag.

Who Notch....omg they are turning on each other