TLDR: 2026 is going to be a record setting year in the UK continuing the record setting May temperatures. But it's only going to get hotter.
With the heatwave just starting it's worth thinking about how unusual it is. 2026 has already been an abnormally hot year and this June looks like it is going to smash the old records.
May was absurdly hot, the previous May heat record (32.8 - 1922) that had stood for over a hundred years was broken by 2.3 degrees (35.1). On that day 23 stations all broke the previous record. 150 odd stations set new Individual records during the month.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
The current June temperature record is 35.6 degrees (1976). With a heatwave possibly hitting 40 degrees this week that record isn't going to stand long. Temperature records should not be being broken by 4-5 degrees. That is not a good sign.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
So why is it so hot? There's a load of hot air wafting over us from the Sahara. As the baseline global temperature rises there are more and more excursions of hot air coming up from the equator. Normally the global air currents keep the hot air spinning around the equator but as the Arctic temperature rises they're weakening and getting less predictable. Its the same mechanism that sometimes dumps Saharan sand on us occasionally. That is happening more and more often now.
atmosphere.copernicus.eu
Or in short: we need to get used to this as the new normal and be prepared for it to get worse. Next year we'll also be getting the full effects of El Ninio so even though we'll smash through even more temperature records all summer, some of them won't last long.
With the heatwave just starting it's worth thinking about how unusual it is. 2026 has already been an abnormally hot year and this June looks like it is going to smash the old records.
May was absurdly hot, the previous May heat record (32.8 - 1922) that had stood for over a hundred years was broken by 2.3 degrees (35.1). On that day 23 stations all broke the previous record. 150 odd stations set new Individual records during the month.
Record-breaking heat rewrites May temperature records across the UK
The final days of May have brought an exceptional spell of heat to the UK, with widespread impacts on both daytime and night-time temperatures.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
The current June temperature record is 35.6 degrees (1976). With a heatwave possibly hitting 40 degrees this week that record isn't going to stand long. Temperature records should not be being broken by 4-5 degrees. That is not a good sign.
Red Extreme Heat Warning issued with June temperature records forecast to break
The Met Office has issued a Red Extreme Heat Warning for Wednesday and Thursday, with June’s all-time daily record temperature forecast to be broken.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
So why is it so hot? There's a load of hot air wafting over us from the Sahara. As the baseline global temperature rises there are more and more excursions of hot air coming up from the equator. Normally the global air currents keep the hot air spinning around the equator but as the Arctic temperature rises they're weakening and getting less predictable. Its the same mechanism that sometimes dumps Saharan sand on us occasionally. That is happening more and more often now.
Repeated Saharan dust intrusions raise questions about increasing frequency | Copernicus
Winter 2024 is seeing a relatively high number of intense Saharan dust intrusions over Europe and Latin America.
atmosphere.copernicus.eu
Or in short: we need to get used to this as the new normal and be prepared for it to get worse. Next year we'll also be getting the full effects of El Ninio so even though we'll smash through even more temperature records all summer, some of them won't last long.
