3 Tier system or circuit breaker lockdown?

[IT Minion]

I don't disagree.
That is not the same as ensuring no long - term adverse effects. Only elapsed time can do that.



That's a different situation to long - term adverse effects.

Or long term alien invasions! There's no proof that giving vaccines won't result in a pulse being sent out that attracts aliens from Mars.

Then again, neither are particularly plausible.

Some people have been using the drug thalidomide as a scare story. Which is misleading as conventional current testing would identify the thalidomide problems and because it's not a vaccine. I hear the Titanic sank, so it's not safe to fly.

 

[Mottie]

Ah, so Ryler (whatever his 'guise' is I disagree with him/her most of the time) has been condemned as a 'conspiracy theorist'...

And yet you have just done the same!

It’s a good job you don’t think there’s a government conspiracy going on. But wait.....you do!

 

[Brigadier]

Or long term alien invasions! There's no proof that giving vaccines won't result in a pulse being sent out that attracts aliens from Mars.

Now that's just being silly.

As vaccines are being tested for disease prevention, but not infection or transmissible prevention, why would anyone advocate vaccination for billions of the young who :

- are very unlikely to be affected by the disease,
- will be unlikely to have demonstrated that the vaccine is not worse than the disease,
- likely won't stop them spreading it anyway,
- will have perhaps 80 years for any long - term effects to become manifest?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31976-0/fulltext


After all (from a previous link - the bmj one, iirc), we don't routinely vaccinate kids against the flu, and that is more deadly to them than the 'rona.

 

[IT Minion]

Now that's just being silly.

As vaccines are being tested for disease prevention, but not infection or transmissible prevention, why would anyone advocate vaccination for billions of the young who :

- are very unlikely to be affected by the disease,
- will be unlikely to have demonstrated that the vaccine is not worse than the disease,
- likely won't stop them spreading it anyway,
- will have perhaps 80 years for any long - term effects to become manifest?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31976-0/fulltext


After all (from a previous link - the bmj one, iirc), we don't routinely vaccinate kids against the flu, and that is more deadly to them than the 'rona.

And we might not. If you've been paying attention to the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation they've considered these things.

But if your theory is right and vaccination is useless to prevent infections, then so is the Barrington approach, which means permanent isolation of elderly and infirm.

Happy 65th Birthday, now give us your passport as you're staying home until you die.

Also, what do you mean by

- will be unlikely to have demonstrated that the vaccine is not worse than the disease

Because that could be read in several ways at least one of which is silly.

Also, this is just wrong.

- likely won't stop them spreading it anyway,

The article doesn't support that, it does consider it as a possibility but that's nowhere near saying it's likely.

 

[Brigadier]

The article doesn't support that, it does consider it as a possibility but that's nowhere near saying it's likely

Fair enough.

"However, the impact of these COVID-19 vaccines on infection and thus transmission is not being assessed. Even if vaccines were able to confer protection from disease, they might not reduce transmission similarly."

...... the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation they've considered these things.

Which is at odds with the quoted Lancet piece.

 

[Brigadier]

But if your theory is right and vaccination is useless to prevent infections,................. means permanent isolation of elderly and infirm.

Happy 65th Birthday, now give us your passport as you're staying home until you die.

That's not the same thing, and not what the piece said.
It said that vaccines were being tested for disease prevention (not to stop you becoming infected, just to stop you becoming very ill if infected).

 

[IT Minion]

Fair enough.

"However, the impact of these COVID-19 vaccines on infection and thus transmission is not being assessed. Even if vaccines were able to confer protection from disease, they might not reduce transmission similarly."



Which is at odds with the quoted Lancet piece.

It's not assessed as it's nearly impossible to do so. It'd never make it past an ethics board to test it directly (we're going to try to infect 2,000 people, half after vaccination, over a period of years, and then try to get them to infect others to see if they can, just for fun). So at best you're looking at a series of proxy results which will not give you a clear view.

Now we do know that some vaccines do prevent people infecting others as well as giving immunity or strengthened response. See Polio and Smallpox and dozens of others.

None of that means that the JVCI aren't aware of this and planning for it.

 

[IT Minion]

For those that don't follow the JVCI, the current draft plan is to vaccinate by age groups oldest to youngest, with health workers thrown in around the 70s and under 50s with underlying conditions before the 60-65 bracket. IIRC.

It's a draft plan because no one knows how well any of the vaccines are going to work yet for any of those groups.

Under 50, including children, are back of the line.

 

[Notch7]

Most scientists believe a single vaccine won't be the all in one solution.

The most likely scenario is a number of different vaccines will be used and in conjunction with the type of measures in place now.

Virologists think the future will mean living with Covid, not that it will disappear like small pox, but become similar perhaps to flu or colds.

 

[ellal]

It’s a good job you don’t think there’s a government conspiracy going on. But wait.....you do!

Actually I believe the government is taking advantage of the situation, and handing out billions to their chums...

But then that's the difference between you and I...

I have the ability to analyse what is going on and you just sit there with your fingers in your ears going 'la-la-la' because you don't want to listen!

 

[JohnD]

Actually I believe the government is taking advantage of the situation, and handing out billions to their chums...

 

[JohnD]

Dido Harding? Who she?

"Harding could not see a foreseeable crisis because she has no qualifications for running a public health service in a national emergency. She’s in post because she is a Tory peer and supporter of the governing regime. Far from firing her, ministers have promoted Harding to head their new National Institute for Health Protection. She didn’t apply for the post, she admitted to parliament. The institute is not a meritocracy, whose jobs are filled in open competition. Harding was a political appointee to a role you might think demands specialist knowledge.

The baroness may look like a relic from Britain before William Gladstone insisted in 1854 that the civil service should award jobs on merit, but don’t be fooled. Harding is a modern figure, at home in the age of Trump and Johnson. A defining feature of the authoritarian governments that are stamping down on peoples around the world is that they reward their supporters with jobs in public service that were once reserved for men and women who knew what they were doing. There’s more than calculated payoffs involved, I believe. Strongmen are weak men who want to be surrounded by sycophants who will not make them uncomfortable with hard truths."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/sep/19/meritocracy-dido-harding-rise

 

[JohnD]

"Track and trace has cost the taxpayer a huge sum, yet only 62% of contacts of those with Covid are told to self-isolate"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...e-says-it-was-never-a-silver-bullet-s5n66rnjc

 

[Ryler]

No Strawman, just facts.

 

[EFLImpudence]

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/coronavirus-test-positive-explained-6533265/