American judges also don't like probability and statistics to determine guilt in spite of the methods and tools offered by the Reverend Thomas Bayes and one UK gentleman named D.V. Lindley who wrote on decision theory. One judge heard the odds and then ordered the court proceedings sealed.
Exactly my point, and the same is certainly true in the UK. One of the problems is there is usually so much wiggle-room in statistical opinions and approaches that 'the other side' will usually put up an expert witness who will challenge the primary statistically-based evidence, fuelling the judges (and/or jury's) belief that it must be 'mumbo jumbo', since 'even statsitical experts cannot agree'.
I don't know what the situation is in the US, but in the UK we have a big difference in the 'burden of proof' in criminal and civil courts. In criminal courts, conviction requires certainty 'beyond a reasonable doubt' (which is variously interpreted by people as meaning anything foirm a 90% to a 99.99% degree of confidence), whereas one 'wins' in a civil court on the basis of 'the balance of probabilities' - so a degree of 'confidence' of 50.001% theoretically can result in a 'win'). In that latter situation, there is much more scope for statistically-based arguments to be of importance.
In some senses, but in others it's quite refreshing to see courts adopting common sense. As I said earlier, if a step in an electricity usage curve is not apparent to the eye, then a 'subtle step', only apparent as the result of statistical analysis, will cause many judges to argue that "a reasonable man-in-the-street would not be convinced". The other big problem is that, unfortunately, increasingly sophististic statistical methods (hence increasingly incomprehensible to non-statisticians) are often used in attempts to 'twist' evidence in one direction or the other (often both) in a court, thereby rightly increasing suspicion about it all!
I've had judges telling me that if I can't make my point without using statistical terminology and without refering to statistical methodology, I should "sit down and be quiet"!
Kind Regards, John