Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

He's an excellent reminder that the UK tax system treats ordinary working people more harshly than prosperous investors.

Not really, I'll be paying a lot more tax than you and at a higher rate. I'm shifting strategy to avoid some of that, though.

Sorry, he's not even an investor, he's a "trader"
He did hint that he had registered under a false NI number, but of course you can't trust what he says.

Perhaps he obeys the law and includes it all on his tax return.

The "ignore" button is a great help.

"Not even an investor" - Investing is just not making much. Either at building society rates, or dumb & lazy trading infrequently,suckking up all the losses. It's the OLD man's approach. There's no need to be that dumb any more.
I have investments, in bricks and mortar, which are ok because I let someone else do the donkey work on them. If US debt crashes the world economy they're likely to be reliable. Rents are silly-high atm.
If you buy any financial instument and sit on it right now, and think you're a wise investor, you're a fool.

Yes I (ie through the accountant) stick it all on the tax return, it hardly comes as cash to go under the mattress, does it. If I wanted to hide gains I'd use brokers and banks in exotic places, as I'm sure a lot of people do because the system is crap. CBA to do that.

 

[Odds]

The Israeli economy is especially dependent on international trade and investment, making it especially susceptible to international economic boycotts. Many international companies such as G4S and HP profit from helping Israel to maintain its system of apartheid and settler colonialism. Campaigns against and divestment from international companies increases the pressure on them to end their complicity with Israel’s oppression of Palestinians.

Completely off topic. It's not a thread about politics.

Are the companies highlighted on the stock exchange?
International trade and Investment are certainly matters related to the stock market.

 

[Justin Passing]

Edit: Applies to yesterday 9th.
"Are they on the stock market?" Don't you know?? G4S isn't, no.. HP is doing fine, up today. Their trade with one little country is immaterial.
Don't pretend your posts aren't intended to be entirely about your current fetish, with the flags an' all. - you're fooling nobody.

Today was a very easy winner.
Monster name NVIDIA got permission to sell stuff to China, and the Bitcoin ETF decision is imminent. You only need a couple of banger stocks to hit on.
Nvidia went up 6.5%, The same as before MARA moved down and up, about 20%, Boeing moved as expected because of bits falling off their planes. The bolts found loose by UA was a help late in the day.
All they have to do is move in big swings, it doesn't matter which way. It would be normal to multiply the gains with leverage at x5.

The guidance which you can get free, before the market opens, is good quality. There are usually half a dozen names with what are called "catalysts" - something expected to move he price.
Trading with active participants during the day, with pros providing output from highly expensive rapid news feeds, and timings for bond auctions and announcements of market imbalances, all free, makes it a piece of cake.
If that source stops for any reason, you can pay $7 a day or so to others, but it's a thing where size helps, so the free one will become the biggest. Thousands watch it.
If you want to "swing" trade, which is slower, there's a lot of advice about that, too.

Even John D could do it, but he has his head stuck up there. You'll note he never posts anything contradicting anything I write. It's like there's a jealous, pathetic know-nothing little boy sitting outside picking his nose and sneering.

Why not try it - practice with virtual money to see how the platform works and how you do. Try opening a couple of suggested trades like I said, and walk away. Use a "stop loss" at negative half a percent in case it "goes the wrong way" , then a "Take profit" at a point depending on the stock which they suggest. For something like today's NVIDIA , you might have used whole percent levels. You can do it on your phone, about 2:15 pm.

For "Swing" trading, you make/find/copy a list of a dozen or so medium sized, mixed, unexciting solid stocks. A supermarket might be one. All prices go up and down, say 5-10%. You look at their charts and see which are lowish for no big reason, and buy some of say 4 of them. A week or whatever later, you do the same, then start selling the ones which have grown. So you replace temporarily-high ones with temporarily-low ones. That might take you half an hour a week but it's a mechanical process, needing no particular knowledge of the market. People normally beat the S&P 500, say, by 20-30% pa.



You need to sign up with a platform and prove who you are. You have to do things like take a selfie with your driving license or passport. I signed up with a few I didn't go on to use, so when they ask for my N.I. number I get it "worng". I don't particularly want personal ID info like that in too many places. Nobody has challenged it yet.

 

[Odds]

Who this is 'nobody' of which you speak - are they listed on the SE, too?

In Minds.co.uk

According to your mate G. o'Ogle, there's 1,918 companies listed...do we have to name them all?

 

[Justin Passing]

If anyone finds my NI number is in error I'll supply the correct one. Meantime, those who don't need it can't have it hacked.

Today was easy too.
Nvidia ( mentioned yesterday) went up about 4%, though because of timing I only used about 1.5%. Leveraged x 5 = 7.5%
Natural gas ( mentioned yesterday) went about 6%, at a different time, mostly in a nice long run so I didn't need to attend. The mobile gets alerts.
Natural gas is a commodity so leveraged 10:1 so was preferable to NVIDIA, giving 60 ish%.
So about 60 + 7.5 = 2/3rds, together.
I said before the pot I use is under the FSCS secured figure, which is £85k. One chap I've met uses several brokers, for that reason.
2/3rds of 85k is about £55,000.

Open an account at Capital, Trading212, eToro. Look for stocks at the resources I mentioned + bitcoin related stocks, gas, oil, stocks with a reason to go higher or lower. Learn what a trend looks like - not hard. Watch, wait, stop if it doesn't go (it will hesitate/pull back from time to time, stop when it seems to have stopped moving or retraces more than a little. When it resumes, go again.)
You can drip-feed the position to limit risk, and use auto stops. Use £10 up, on something recommended, to go the relevant direction. Or 85k of virtual money if you like (recommended). Once it's all "winnings" it doesn't feel like personal money.

 

[Justin Passing]

A bit of a messy day, but two from those mentioned recently came through again. Crypto broker MARA moved about 3 times, down up down, for about 12%. That's just an ordinary stock, so leverage is 5x.
Natural gas was the champ again though. They call it the Widowmaker, because it can move unpredictably and "dump" you. In about 12 changes of direction, it moved about 27%. I only got about half of that. One can use a variety of indicators to help predict when a change of direction is coming, so you can reduce the number of shares, or just close, and watch.
The nice - and fingernail reducing aspect of commodities is that the leverage is 10x. It caught me about 4 times on the changeover, so you lose some of the gain the leg has made, or you hold on and don't change direction when it would have been better to. It's a nice feeling when a leg is done, and you've locked the profit in.
You start a leg with a negative total because of the spread (buy-sell difference, about 0.1%). That starts at about £-500 to £-800 and you really hope it shrinks and turns positive quickly. It can go -£2000,, -£3000, and sometimes you have to close, and lose it, remembering it's just part of previous winnings, so it doesn't matter.
Out of a theoretically possible day's growth of some 270%, I got about half that - still well over 100%. That doesn't happen very often. The other "nice" thing is they trade all day, so it's bloody tiring.

Chart - with a couple of those indicators, one on the separate window underneath. The black box is 1% tall.

It becomes quite mechanical, so you learn a set of instructions which works, reducing the sweat.. Some people set up a link and let it run on an automated system - very appealing.

Big news of the day is that the Cryptocurrency ETFs have been approved. Institutions will want to acquire them to be a percentage of the funds they hold, like any other ETF, so the prices could do all sorts of strange things. They day they hit the market will be fun. FOMO everywhere.

 

[Justin Passing]

The new crypto ETFs won't be available in the UK because if documentation requirements (PRIIPS).
However, it's very likely that there will be something in the EU. Not UK, for a while.
There is a Bitcoin Strategy ETF, BITO. It hasn't been attractive to use, so far.

If you have any money in "invesments", including pensions,
don't sit on your backside thinking you're clever, however well you may have done. Your fortune depends in large part on 7 partly linked companies,
Apple, Amazon, Google parent-company Alphabet, Facebook-owner Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
Between them, they are worth more than the stock markets of the UK, Japan, France, China and Canada combined.

All we can say from history is that predictions can go badly wrong.
If something is happening now, with a sustained good reason, you 're probably OK for the rest of the day. Maybe a few days. After that it gets less certain.
That's where day trading scores.

A half a percent per day, over the weekdays of 44 weeks of the year, gives 300% p.a.
Top building society interest ~6% is currently about 0.025 % per day.

 

[Justin Passing]

Rinse and repeat.
Same stocks. Nat gas or Mara, I used the latter. Hardly any input from me.
First it went up 10% or so $25 ish to $28 ish, then down 30+%.
The add up, rounding the number say 35% total, then leveraged 5x = 175%.

Start with £80k and you do the sums.

Here it is.
5 minute candle width. To be clear, top to bottom of the box I drew is the 36.28%
To repeat, you don't start at the entry price on the left which is 25.5 or so. CFD is "contracts for difference", so you start at 0.
You buy enough "shares" to use whatever amount of money you want to use. The share price is immaterial, it's the change.
Leverage means you get the change, + or - , on 5x the amount of money you use.
So say you used a million squid on shares which are 30p
With leverage 5x, the shares your money would buy would be 5 million squid's worth
If the shares go to 33p, that's 10% so your gain is 0.5 million squid.
In simple terms if it went against you more than 20% you lose all your money. If it goes down more, you don't owe them - that's the law.

Kicking myself for not using any of the 5% or so change from 5.30pm until 6. That would normally be boody marvellous.

 

[Justin Passing]

Error in previous post: I drew the box from bottom up rather than top down, so the % it shows is too high. It should be about 27% - I wondered why the outcome wasn't quite right.

Today was the same, but less. The same stock went down 13% , then up 2 and down 3, a total win of about 16%.
Sums are the same, a shift of 16% gives a gain of 80%.
So with 80 in, you get 80 + 64 out.
US market os closed Monday, UK/EU is open but it doesn't trend as strongly with good liquidity, so it's a bit of a pain.

 

[Arbu]

In simple terms if it went against you more than 20% you lose all your money. If it goes down more, you don't owe them - that's the law.

So what? You haven't bet against it going down more than 20%. They're going to close your position out well before it goes down 20% because you won't have enough margin. So it's irrelevant what it does after that. Same as if I keep betting on red on a roulette wheel, lose all my money so can't bet any more, and then it comes up black again - I won't lose any more money. Obviously. I don't get what your point is.

 

[Justin Passing]

So what? You haven't bet against it going down more than 20%. They're going to close your position out well before it goes down 20% because you won't have enough margin. So it's irrelevant what it does after that. Same as if I keep betting on red on a roulette wheel, lose all my money so can't bet any more, and then it comes up black again - I won't lose any more money. Obviously. I don't get what your point is.

You are absolutely right, I was trying to explain(again) how cfd trading works. People who don't do it, don't readily understand it. "What happens if it all goes wrong" is part of the picture. In practice of course your stop-loss would stop the situation getting anywhere near that bad.
Yes - the brokers close it whether you like it or not, in order to prevent losing all the money, which is in simpler terms what happens.
If you were not an individual, it WOULD be relevant after that, because you'd wind up owing them money, but the law protects individuals.

I didn't go into what happens if you have some winning and some losing positions either , but that's not needed here.

---

This journey has shown me how it really isn't hard to get oneself into a financial freedom. I've found it quite intense though, and you have to fight your natural instincts to some extent. I know some just aren't made the right way. Some say nothing, some pour bile and sneering - sad individuals. If only they'd devote some learning time and a bit of cash...
I'll keep turning the handle on the money machine while the bitcoin saga plays out. If it wants to move 10% in a day , 50% when leveraged, then OK I'll take it. Similarly, energy (oil, gas) has its moments of shifting a lot, leveraged at 10x, so ditto. In the past few months there have been times when not so much was happening, though, so a couple of percent a day was all you could get.
If things revert to that, I intend Swing trading, where you can still get decent shifts but on a less frantic timescale.

The internet era means it's easy. There are plenty of very good advisers out there who , basically do all the hard work and tell you what they're doing, and why, and in a timely way so you can copy, or not.
For swing trading, one of the best is this guy , here one of hos recent outputs -

who runs Trade Ideas. The full service is around $300 a month, which sounds a lot, but it depends - if one of his observations makes you more than that, etc.

Roll on just how long exactly, to when everyone can have an A.I. bot on their laptop and let it do the bidding? My guess is it will not be long, but the results will be disruptive.

 

[Arbu]

You are absolutely right, I was trying to explain(again) how cfd trading works. People who don't do it, don't readily understand it. "What happens if it all goes wrong" is part of the picture. In practice of course your stop-loss would stop the situation getting anywhere near that bad.
Yes - the brokers close it whether you like it or not, in order to prevent losing all the money, which is in simpler terms what happens.
If you were not an individual, it WOULD be relevant after that, because you'd wind up owing them money, but the law protects individuals.

I didn't go into what happens if you have some winning and some losing positions either , but that's not needed here.

---

This journey has shown me how it really isn't hard to get oneself into a financial freedom. I've found it quite intense though, and you have to fight your natural instincts to some extent. I know some just aren't made the right way. Some say nothing, some pour bile and sneering - sad individuals. If only they'd devote some learning time and a bit of cash...
I'll keep turning the handle on the money machine while the bitcoin saga plays out. If it wants to move 10% in a day , 50% when leveraged, then OK I'll take it. Similarly, energy (oil, gas) has its moments of shifting a lot, leveraged at 10x, so ditto. In the past few months there have been times when not so much was happening, though, so a couple of percent a day was all you could get.
If things revert to that, I intend Swing trading, where you can still get decent shifts but on a less frantic timescale.

The internet era means it's easy. There are plenty of very good advisers out there who , basically do all the hard work and tell you what they're doing, and why, and in a timely way so you can copy, or not.
For swing trading, one of the best is this guy , here one of hos recent outputs -

who runs Trade Ideas. The full service is around $300 a month, which sounds a lot, but it depends - if one of his observations makes you more than that, etc.

Roll on just how long exactly, to when everyone can have an A.I. bot on their laptop and let it do the bidding? My guess is it will not be long, but the results will be disruptive.

So what does bitcoin "want to do" tomorrow, then? We need some predictions from you, otherwise it's all just talk.

Fwiw I'd like to predict that shares in Braemar plc want to go up to midday Wednesday, and shares in Fujitsu Ltd want to go down until the close on Friday and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd down to the close on Tuesday. But don't follow my advice.

 

[Odds]

So what does bitcoin "want to do" tomorrow, then? We need some predictions from you, otherwise it's all just talk.

I heard about this years ago...

Prediction markets -- also known as information markets or events futures -- first drew widespread attention in July 2003 when it was revealed that the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) was establishing a Policy Analysis Market to allow trading in various forms of geopolitical risk, including economic and military scenarios. The objective was to discover whether trading in such contracts could help predict future events. Bowing to a storm of criticism that it was proposing "terrorism futures," DARPA dropped the program. But other prediction markets, dealing with everything from sports and entertainment to elections and finances, have emerged and gained growing interest and participation.

Wolfers and Zitzewitz begin by noting that much of the enthusiasm for prediction markets derives from the efficient markets hypothesis. In a truly efficient prediction market, the market price will be the best predictor of the event, and no combination of polls or other information can be used to improve on the market-generated forecasts. Wolfers and Zitzewitz do not insist that prediction markets are literally perfectly (or fully) efficient; however, they acknowledge that a number of successes in these markets, both within firms and with regard to public events such as presidential elections, have generated substantial interest among both political and financial economists.

National Bureau of Economic Research

 

[Justin Passing]

So what does bitcoin "want to do" tomorrow, then? We need some predictions from you, otherwise it's all just talk.

Fwiw I'd like to predict that shares in Braemar plc want to go up to midday Wednesday, and shares in Fujitsu Ltd want to go down until the close on Friday and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd down to the close on Tuesday. But don't follow my advice.

You need to read back in the thread. I've posted several times where I go for information.
If China has put restrictions on US electric vehicle imports, Tesla will fall, etc etc.
I've predicted before, and shown evidence. So no more silly accusations please.
If there's what's called a "catalyst", something like a bitcoin stock or oil/gas price will generally trend all day. Sometimes more than a day in one direction, but at some point profit-taking comes in, and then the price often trends the other way.
It's a positive feedback mechanism, which you need to understand.
You don't need prior knowledge, if you think an "instrument" is liable to change - you just watch it, and use the tools a "market technician" spends a lot of time learning, and getting qualified in. He then earns a lot of money using that knowledge. One generalised heading is "price action". Look it up.

There are also cycles. Look up positive feedback. There's a "Rotation" around the sectors, like Technology for a while, then Health care, etc. There are seasonal variations, which are generally reliable. The can of course go wrong. Corn just did, for the first time in many years.

If you or Odds think it's all hogwash, look up "prop shops". Those are where people make large amounts of money on a daily basis, based on the probabilities from what they see. Sometimes everyone gets surprised, and loses, or tries something, and loses. If you limit your losses to 100 each time but your wins are around 1000, you can afford a lot of losses and still come out on top. You expect around 3 wins out of 4, though. That's the way it works.
Most people who try, fail - it's something around 80%. But then 80% can't do simple maths, haven't got degrees in anything, never bothered to learn first, etc etc. The very best are in the top 1%, like in most things.

It's not very intelligent to just try to take the p out of something you don't understand.

"the market price will be the best predictor of the event, ". Yes, that's what Price Action is. Look it up.
Look at that chart from last Friday. A huge move in one direction, covering over 20%. You don't need to predict much, you go with it. You will see it started by rising. That was OK too - long enough to "go with it" until it stopped, and changed.

Here's a chart of General Electric. Every small wave is about 6%.
If you drew some parallel lines you'd have got a prediction right a heck of a lot of the time, right?

I do get fed up with uninformed denouncements, so if you want answers, please be careful what you write. I have been accused of being insulting - which of course I don't agree with, but if you are ignorant, lazy and foolish, being reminded may seem that way.
If you want to learn, and earn,, I can give you some pointers, but do read, first. A lot to use, is here.

Another - Here's a bite of Apple from Friday. I've drawn in some red "levels" The price tends to spend its time going between levels. So you watch, wait until you can see which way it's headed, and use it. Not hard, eh? (Ignore the grey cross lines). Levels often hold for days, weeks, months.
Identify if there's a trend, marked by higher highs and higher lows, or vv,, and go with it (as with GE above). Tends to work.

 

[Arbu]

I'm not taking the p. I'm trying to figure out how to do it myself. I have no problem with posting what I'm doing as I do it. I've just sold some gold. All I understand from "price action" is a reference to the price plotted over time, so that's facile. But I see that both the highs and lows are setting a downward trend, the price is near the top trend, and is coming down today. I've set a stop and tp as shown in the chart below. Let's see what happens.