Stock market dealing

[Justin Passing]

I was wrong. Today turned very differently, I mean, not an all-rising one.. I lost £300 at my start and took 2 hours to get it back. That's really bad! But 300, 3000, 300000, it's not going to change my life.
I looked about and found some things which looked promising - one dumped and two broke even, so I kept this one.

and it took my money up 50%, overall. No leverage, cos it's in an ISA, otherwise it would have been 2.5x. (It's not in the leveraging account, either.. )
Anyone can do it, nothing clever, you just LOOK.
There's no bragging here, it's just the way it is.
You can learn in a "paper" account, ot by using small amounts of money. £10, say. Paper accounts are excellent for learning how the platform works, and how you might "go wrong" and lose by a fat-finger mistake. Real money feels very different, to begin with.
OK you have to build the ISA up.
Then you can use only the " winnings", which removes much of the annoyance if you lose a bit. Never use it all, so you're always "up".
You do have to take some risk, andoften not use a stop- loss. See those nasty lines which drop to the blue one? A stop-loss would have taken your money, by selling down there. I'd already "taken enough out" to cover my stake. Explanation goes into the weeds here....
Anyway, £50k up.

I've worked out my worldly wealth, roughly, it depends on the tax.
The objective, which as discussed above, was to be enough to cover me + wife for another 30 years regardless , in some fancy pants place somewhere with a view of the sea. I got most of the way to where I wanted. I need to look into things further, now it's just me.
I never had much of a look at what's available, but from what I can see, I can get a 3 bed retirement flat near/on a coast, for not-a-fortune. Like, one near Bournemouth was £3-500k. I don't want a mansion.

The trajectory I showed before, where £20k had got to £300k, a couple of years ago, continued,.

Day trading and making a few k is enjoyable, and addictive, but not a real end in itself.

So - the plan, until life gets in the way again, is to re-jig the investments, so I don't have to DO anything very often, but they run ahead of inflation.
So a new post, more about longer term - trading or investing, call it what you may:

 

[Justin Passing]

MOST OF WHAT SOMEONE WILL TELL YOU THEY HEARD ABOUT INVESTING, IS DUMB.
Wrong qualitatively, or quantitatively.
If you over-simplify, you're a simpleton. Don't do that.

"It's not timing the market, it's time IN the market"
Nonsense. unless you'd be happy for your money to drop maybe 30% like it did last April, just because someone quoted that silly line at you.

"Diversify diversify diversify"
To a point, sure, share the risk. But how much do you put into Afghan cuckoo-clock shares?? Or even say Healthcare, if that sector has been going down for months?
I think it was Buffet who said you only diversify if you don't know where to put your money.

"Just use a low cost index tracker" "managed funds do no better".
It depends which managed funds you use. That statement includes all the cuckoo-clock managed funds. And doesn't name an index.

"Just use the S&P 500"
Too simple, again. All indices drop a LOT from time to time. That one dropped 30% in April ( Ihaven't checked the number - it didn't apply to me)

In my experience, and listening to others, it's not hard to do better. It can be as simple as using just one stock, which I keep showing worked for the past 3 years.

You need rules for yourself. Mine are a bit ad-hoc, and need some refining, to be based on "back testing", which means, "what would have happened if I'd applied the rule, over the last X years."

If anyone is interested I'll have a go at actually writing a set of rules, which work for me.
If you put a "thanks" to this post, I'll have an idea how many that might be.

 

[Justin Passing]

Have been playing with this today

400%!!.
They keep "stopping " it, because it's so crazy. In the aftermarket, nothing gets "stopped", so it could "squeeze" then die to nothing.
I've seen things like this go to 1400%. Thousands of people holding $50...!
No you can't "short" things like this!

 

[Justin Passing]

Not really into it, but I picked this one up late when the indicator suggested it. Up 20%:

Most things are down a bit.
Europe, has been doing OK, riser now is NUVUVE.

Just as well, I have some silver and gold, and they're about to nosedive, particularly silver.

 

[Justin Passing]

A) There's a wobble in the market
B) This is, more or less, what I do as regards "#Investing". Investing is the same as trading, but slower.

Sorry, it's a bit mixed

My #routine practise has been to have a big proportion of investments in something really boring, ticking over in the teens of %, or even bldg socs. That's been easy, but getting squeezed as bank rates drop slowly.
Then, see what's doing well, and go for it, with enough to push the average up..
So there's passively invested and actively invested, you could say.

Usually there is more than one sector doing well. That's where my version of diversification comes in. I diversify, but only into things which are doing about as well. There's no point having half your "trading" money in something very volatile and the other half in something at 4%. The "safe" half will get overwhelmed by the other half. Better to have that as cash on the platform (it may get a small % just by being uninvested) and have it ready to use quickly.
So I woiuld pick two (or more) unrelated sectors if they were both doing as well as each other.
Google Stockmarket Sectors. A quick overview here, but there are many many pages with more https://markets.ft.com/data/sectors

As an aside, really, tomorrow/this weekend is I think, going to be a major "correction". I hope I'm wrong. If so, some funds may well go back a month or three in terms of gains. I can't avoid some losses, though I already have done so by not holding any AI stocks right now.
Emerging Markets, Latin America, Europe have been doing OK , and won't (I expect) get hit as hard as an AI crash. I have some in Asia Pacific like Korea, Japan, which have also jumped a few percent at a time. they'll get hit too but probably not as much.

Generally, it's Sectors I focus on. Google Sector Performance Charts and you'll see what I mean. In the last few years, 2022 (iirc) was all about Energy. No other sector was any good. A couple of years ago , India grew 55% in 12 months. Then Financials was very good, and Tech took off when ChatGpt arrived. If you sat back in your S&P Index fund, you'd have missed out, by a lot. Usually when there's a dip, it recovers fairly fast, like the Covid one did, and it's the stocks whcih fell fastest which get back up quickest.
I never, for example held "Infrastructure". It never does very much, so why diversify into it? It has always been better to be using the fastest growing sectors, and take what hit you can't avoid, when it happens. You have to twist the logic to argue otherwise, imo.

This time it may be different, because gold is not a normal stock producing profits, and everyone's worried that the enormous spending on AI is not going to produce the enormous profits predicted, and China may well dump AI systems and chips around the world to crash the USA, when it can.
When AI is monetised by ads, and porn, then it'll earn a lot, but a free AI can be used for that. There's only so much advertising budget. You don't need an AI which is 2000x the IQ of a human, 10x will do. It's like, how good a phone, or word processor, do you need?

I've just sold a load of stuff today, at minus 2%.
Hurry up and wait and see.

Sectors - how to see what's what. One direct way to see, is to look at a screener. The one I use most is at AJ Bell. (No account requitred.).
It doesn't do direct graphs like Hargreaves Lansdown does, but you can see the world's "funds". Go down the list and see the results, over time. It'll show individual charts,
It takes a little dscovery to getthe best from it.
Go into Funds , then into Aldanced Filters, to know out the highets risk categories. Otherwise you get all the leveraged , volatile finds. There are 7 categories, so pick 1-5, say. Add the other just to haba a look, later.
You need Performance, >Annual performance > Trailing performance.

Then you get this . I clicked the 1 Month % column, Do try the others. Unusually for a fund screener, it shows one week.
You can do the same for ETF's. Each has its advantages

So, there you have a couple of Japan, loads of Energing Markets (EM), a couple of Global equity, , then lower down , or for the longer periods, you would currently be getting a lot of Gold & Precious Metals, some Biotech/ healthcare, and energy.
Simply - see how long they've been doing well, and how far apart they are. If you clicked 3m or 6m then you'd get Gold etc.
If say Real Estate has just popped up - ignore it. You're looking for a longer period. It's called "momentum".

It's easy when you have two or three sectors all doing as well as each other for weeks or months, but that's rare.
Then , scratch your chin and check a few very recent moods.

If/ when you decide to invest, say you have 100 money units.
Start with a couple, or a couple in each of three funds, then next week, do the same. Look up "Dollar Cost Averaging" for the reason.

Also do a check with only the lower risk/volatilities marked, and see what has occurred, over the last 12 months say.
You might find any of "Strategic bonds", "High Yield Bonds", "Convertible bonds", have dome well enough, for you. Select those in the filters. They can make a lot opf sense if they're competing with shares, on the numbers, and you won't be checking yourself much.
Check whether the ones you like dipped, eg last April, when stocks dipped.
Avoid CAT bonds, like the plague.

People bang on about "low cost" funds. That's an ongoing management charge usually in the 0.5-1.5% pa area. I tend to ignore it - for the monent, it'll get swamped.

There are some particular Stocks funds, which perform differently, more later. "Dividend stocks" can be an example though - those tend to be large, cash cow companies which shouldn't be so volatile.

 

[Justin Passing]

A day of some recovery fom the feelings and movements of doom today.
Too tired to play.

The youtube Channel I watch is TraderTv Live
Today's is here

They have 500k subscribers now, obviously they make a lot of money from that.
They have rebuilt their space to be a sort of studio, and are shortly to start an "Academy" teching people about trading.
Unfortunately they aren't teachers, though a couple of their people think they're marvellous at it all.
How much of a structure they use, we'll see.
All the transmissions they do, are still there.
Always make sure you're watching the LIVE one, it can be tricky. Also there's a vertical format channel, for phones.
And if you can find it, they have a load of learning stuff up, already. They're also active on X, Instagram etc.
Do "subscribe", they send you a daily preview before the open to your email. No strings attached, afaik!.

Through the day, they use some "candle" observations, lots about "levels", and "trends".
That's all, basically. (plus one or two moving averages, inc the Volume Weighted Average Price they call Veewap)
I've mentioned them a lot but I can do an illustration of those things if anyone wants.
I wonder if I could attach a powerpoint file....?

I picked this think up, a couple of times in the day. It was mentioned a lot in that Youtube channel.
My current (latest) entry is the from green line, time taken at the yellow vertical, from which it's up about 13%:

That's inthe "CFD part of the platform which is leveraged, so that's 5 x 13 = 65% on the base amount.
Use £100, win £65.
1000, 650, etc.
10k, 6.5k ....
I wouldn't use a huge amount, it's too flighty, ie it's rising because it's rising, not for any "real" reason.
NB these are 5-minute-wide candles, it's easier to follow on 1 minute ones.

 

[Justin Passing]

This happens every day. This happens to be Google (Alphabet), only a couple of percent, which would be 12 or so when leveraged x5.
So once you have 100k to play with from your winnings, you can make 12k a day from this.
3% isn't a big one, but very predictable/ reliable. You still have to watch.

The price "gaps" down from the open, which you can only use by guessing right before the open - don't bother without a reason.
Then it spends the rest of the day getting back to pretty much the same price.
You CAN pick the bottom , if you're waiting and watching

The market opened 2:30 pm, and you'd be out at the "high" above the "h" of alphabet at about 3:45pm, because it's near enough to where the price started.
You can't do this with leverage in an ISA, but you can use an "instrument" which is leveraged at 3x. It has play in it, so you'd get 6% tax free.
You can do both at once of course depending on funds allocation.

How would you find it ? - well it's one of the "Magnificent 7", so you're looking at all of those.

I didn't bother, I just used the NASDAQ, the Tech index, which is an aggregate of all stocks in that exchange.

Only a 2% rise. . yep But that one's leveraged at 20:1 (and there's no limit) so you get 40%.
So it's a better place to put your pot than Google, which is usually the case. All over by 4:30.
The blue line was a useful indicator
In an ISA there's a 5:1 called 5QQQ.


This is exactly the same thing, but using wider candles.(30 minute). Note how on this view, the indicator (net volume) is telling you what to do when. When that blue line in the panel underneath starts to dip, sell.

I was switching between different time frames. Came in and out a couple of times too, which actually made no difference but would have proved worthwhile if it had dumped.. The guys on TTV are talking about the other (the constituent) stocks, so you hear about things in advance, to a point.

 

[Justin Passing]

QUite a dump today. AS I said I was holding too much Gold and Silver, in slow-to trade funds. Lost a few %, on untaken profits.

I was lucky as hell with bitcoin though. I bought two, at 110, and sold them when they got to 120, intending to buy a dip later. Now it's 90 though, I don't fancy it! It may not recover well.
I'm "long in cash", plus some healthcare. JnJ doing well.

 

[Justin Passing]

The market has to some extent had some stuffing knocked out of it, under the banner "overpriced" , and AI not giving us profits in real companies outside the AI providers which are all dealing with each other.
Too many players are investing in each other - all very circular. That includes all the big ones like MIcrosoft, Google, Meta. Not quite so much Apple.

The big event to come is NVIDIA's results, out today, (which will surely show large profits,) and the reaction of the market which always expects more, and more. The merely very good, will see a drop in the prices, if history repeats.

Nobody is claiming to know where we'll be in a month, + / - 20%.
I have mostly sold volatile things, so pulling back to safe "instruments". Bonds should be ok for a while. Some is in Healthcare at the moment because that's not chips, and it seems to be where people have run to.
Growth, in a building society, is of the order of 0.02% per day.
Not much point putting money there. then.
Opportunities with strong probablilities of a gain of say 1%, happen too frequently, so I want the moolah available..

Convertible bonds will be vulnerable to being converted, and corporate bonds will suffer if there's a lack of investing by companies, etc. They should still be ahead of inflation if carefully selected.
Gold/silver/copper will probably easy upwards in a jolting manner.
Big investors will just hold, because long term, things come back, They don't mind being "under water" for 6 months, but I do!.

 

[Justin Passing]

This seems to work pretty well.It's the same "Net volume" indicator I've had on the charts above, but this chart is 5 minute wide candles, those before were 1 minute, You can switch between them easily, or display both at once. See the "5" on the background.

This is a random chart, not selected.

1) Rule one of trading is about LEVELS. EG OIl prices tend to go in whole barrel price numbers, like 68, 69, 70 dollars a barrel.
They don't hang about long in between, usually. They're like bus stops. The price only tends to stop at the bus stops.
ALL stocks have them though, and they can last for ever so watch for them, and if a stock value is sitting at a level, don't buy it or "Short " it until you see which way it's LEAVING the level from.

You can see Levels in the orangey and purple boxes above.
The NET VOLUME indicator is jiggling up and down - the thin blue line.

Now, you wait for the points marked by the larger yellow V's.
The price has LEFT the level and is heading up . Net Vol has hit a high and is staying there, going sideways a bit..
As soon as you get to the red V, sell,

The smaller yellow and red V's are sort of borderline, because the price is still more or less at the same level that it has been. Because of the SPREAD, which is often the height of the candle, you may not make anything there. So inside the purplish level box, there isn't really enough movement.
To be safe, you'd wait until you have a couple of candles of high horizontal, AND you've left the level. That you would see on the 1 minute, sooner.
If it doesn't look right, it's easy, you do nothing!.

On a 1 minute candle it can look deceptive, the 5 minute makes things more sure, even if you miss some potential gains.

Between 16:00 and 17:00, the price went up 55 dollars.
With a margin account, you might have a couple of thousand $ sitting there to use. $2.3k gives you 5 times that in buying power. so you'd make $275 in that hour.
Then you look for the next trade.
Unfortunately, things tend to all move together, but not exactly. You pick the "liveliest" one.

Hang on, I was wrong, this is one of the INDEXES, it's "small stocks", so the leverage is

double a normal stock.
You'd make $550 on your couple of grand. Worth waiting for.

 

[Justin Passing]

Just like te old days.
I was aware bitcoin had gone down a lot and was watching for a recovery - on now.
$MARA is the one I used to use.
It flew off from the open today, too fast to rely on much, so I only did a couple of in-outs.
Then it dipped back down which is typical, and I took the bottom -ish,, which isn't hard.
Watched bitcoin. It rose like it used to, a few % in a day.
MARA did what it used to - about double the rise, turned out 8%

I went 5k, +10k, 20k, 40k, and topped it up to 100k on the dips.
Anyone who's read here before will know the deal.
8% x 5 leverage is 40%.. 40% of 100k you can manage. Less tax at 24%.
£30k ish payday.
No I do not have a use for it...
I'm an addict...

 

[Dereekoo]

No idea what what MARA is ? is it a trading company? a supplier of candle charts or what. Tried to get my head around Notch 7 trading for dummied video but can't even work out what TradeNation site is all about. I assume all your charts you put up come from sites you have accounts with?