My investment is still in the black despite one heavy looser but looking at the long term so not worried yet .
Stock market dealing
- Thread starter Justin Passing
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Good to hear it.
As an investor, you should be looking at the 12-month return, and longer.
Mine are more than satisfactory.
I have been thinning out the International ones that are too dependent on Trumpland, and will dump the remainder. The combination of lacklustre performance and the incredible shrinking dollar show no sign of changing. I also gauge the US tech sector to be overbought and risky.
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Why not 8 months or 2 years?
I depends on what happens, not on a calendar.
That IS reacting to what happens, and what seems likely to continue - perfectly sensible. Using "Should" and a pre-specified time period has no particular merit. You can try to use things which you judge are likely to behave in a certain way.
A way to stop one thing dominating suddenly is to "DCA in", as stated above.
There really is a long term shortage of silver, so eventually it is likely to recover its price. Gold is tending to replace the greenback as a reliable long term holding, but that will change over time. Gold is actually not a very useful or very rare asset and has no "yield", so one could use tulips, or crypto currency. The tradition is so much stronger though.
The SM behaviour is getting to look more and more like what happened in the dot com bubble. There are key differences but enough similarities to make me take heed.
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Here's your "hold for a year" chart
At Jan '25 You might have picked the S&P500 (Blue), because it's LOW COST.
This shows 18 months
Note that at Jan 25 there was no particular reason to use one of the others:
Green is Artemis Glob Inc
purple is Blackrock Gold & G.
Keeping the S&P500 for a year would be pretty dumb, imo.
Now, don't do your usual silly nit-picking.
At Jan '25 You might have picked the S&P500 (Blue), because it's LOW COST.
This shows 18 months
Note that at Jan 25 there was no particular reason to use one of the others:
Green is Artemis Glob Inc
purple is Blackrock Gold & G.
Keeping the S&P500 for a year would be pretty dumb, imo.
Now, don't do your usual silly nit-picking.
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I'm holding quite a bit of cash, watching for dips to buy. AI is out of favour at the moment.
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Use a stock screener which gives you the recent history, pick a couple..
3x Korea, Emerging Markets,, anything data centre focused....
Many funds , even some Vanguard ones, are 50%+ up on the past 12 months.
I put a houseworth into this, what seems like yesterday.
Now it's about 3 houses, because I used Spread Betting which is 5x, and no tax to pay.
Look at Korea - where Samsung and SK Hynix (memory chips) live. Trebled since 01/01/26.
For a fund, steady, use EU index, Emerging Markets, Far east (Japan is unknown for a bit, but probably ok), Latin America has been good.
Artemis Global Income is 86(?) different shares so wellish enough diversified, and not much in the USA. 55% in the last 12 months.
Gold & SIlver probably have more to go up, but they can drop in a day so use an ETF with a stop loss - even then they might skip through.
They're coming up to the previous high so I'll flog em and wait to see if they break above.
One day Bitcoin may come back, but it's looking moribund.
3x Korea, Emerging Markets,, anything data centre focused....
Many funds , even some Vanguard ones, are 50%+ up on the past 12 months.
I put a houseworth into this, what seems like yesterday.
Now it's about 3 houses, because I used Spread Betting which is 5x, and no tax to pay.
Look at Korea - where Samsung and SK Hynix (memory chips) live. Trebled since 01/01/26.
For a fund, steady, use EU index, Emerging Markets, Far east (Japan is unknown for a bit, but probably ok), Latin America has been good.
Artemis Global Income is 86(?) different shares so wellish enough diversified, and not much in the USA. 55% in the last 12 months.
Gold & SIlver probably have more to go up, but they can drop in a day so use an ETF with a stop loss - even then they might skip through.
They're coming up to the previous high so I'll flog em and wait to see if they break above.
One day Bitcoin may come back, but it's looking moribund.
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The mood in the market has turned down. One can look at the call options and put options to see what Traders think.
At the moment, "put " options are much more popular than call options.
An "out of the money put option" is where you buy the right to sell a share at a price which is lower than it's currently at. So if a share is at $200 you might pay $1 for the option to sell it at $150 dollars, up to some point in the future. The normal quantity is 100 shares so that would cost you $ 100.
If the price drops to 130 dollars you effectively buy the shares at 130 and exercise your option to sell them at 150 dollars. So you would make $2000 on your 100 share options. In practice you sell the option, you don't need to buy the shares.
If you think the price is going to go up, you can buy a "call" option which is the opposite of a put option.
Traders use options to Hedge their position ; so if they're holding a load of Apple shares expecting them to go up but don't want to lose if they go down, they buy an option to sell them like that.
If you buy a put option and the price goes up it expires worthless, but you had the insurance in case it went down.
If you're holding Apple shares, which is called a long position, then you need to be a bit nervous if the put options held, exceed the call options.
You can see the volumes -they are available on the platforms where you can buy and sell options.
THere is an ongoing worry that AI hasn't produced enough profit yet. There are people using AI such as the American Walmart which is like ASDA where they are planning to expand but without employing any more people, they're going to use AI instead to do their ordering and things like that. All the major sellers already use robots to move the goods about. Look for a YouTube to see Amazon's operation.
Firms switch to AI for things like bookkeeping.
Some companies are likely to be in trouble because it's going to be much easier, you don't need to employ an accountant , all you need is an AI agent which does bookkeeping. The agent is like a an expert who knows about bookkeeping, so you can more or less tell it what you want to do and it can take in all the figures and spit out all the forms and
You might have another one for employing people and so on. But they're cheap.
What seems to be happening is that although there are customers for the AI models which are out there now so they are selling, the manufacturers of the AI systems are piling all of their money plus a load of borrowed money into producing the next AI machine but there's no endpoint. There's an infinite level of intelligence which can be achieved, but sooner or later unless you can monetize it you're the brightest company on the Planet with nowhere to go.
It's like at the moment, the guys doing best in the gold mine are other ones selling the picks and shovels.
At the moment, "put " options are much more popular than call options.
An "out of the money put option" is where you buy the right to sell a share at a price which is lower than it's currently at. So if a share is at $200 you might pay $1 for the option to sell it at $150 dollars, up to some point in the future. The normal quantity is 100 shares so that would cost you $ 100.
If the price drops to 130 dollars you effectively buy the shares at 130 and exercise your option to sell them at 150 dollars. So you would make $2000 on your 100 share options. In practice you sell the option, you don't need to buy the shares.
If you think the price is going to go up, you can buy a "call" option which is the opposite of a put option.
Traders use options to Hedge their position ; so if they're holding a load of Apple shares expecting them to go up but don't want to lose if they go down, they buy an option to sell them like that.
If you buy a put option and the price goes up it expires worthless, but you had the insurance in case it went down.
If you're holding Apple shares, which is called a long position, then you need to be a bit nervous if the put options held, exceed the call options.
You can see the volumes -they are available on the platforms where you can buy and sell options.
THere is an ongoing worry that AI hasn't produced enough profit yet. There are people using AI such as the American Walmart which is like ASDA where they are planning to expand but without employing any more people, they're going to use AI instead to do their ordering and things like that. All the major sellers already use robots to move the goods about. Look for a YouTube to see Amazon's operation.
Firms switch to AI for things like bookkeeping.
Some companies are likely to be in trouble because it's going to be much easier, you don't need to employ an accountant , all you need is an AI agent which does bookkeeping. The agent is like a an expert who knows about bookkeeping, so you can more or less tell it what you want to do and it can take in all the figures and spit out all the forms and
You might have another one for employing people and so on. But they're cheap.
What seems to be happening is that although there are customers for the AI models which are out there now so they are selling, the manufacturers of the AI systems are piling all of their money plus a load of borrowed money into producing the next AI machine but there's no endpoint. There's an infinite level of intelligence which can be achieved, but sooner or later unless you can monetize it you're the brightest company on the Planet with nowhere to go.
It's like at the moment, the guys doing best in the gold mine are other ones selling the picks and shovels.
