The future is electric

[Brigadier]

Elon Musk listed as richest person in the world, according to Forbes today.
$185 billion

 

[fillyboy]

Couldn't get my head round that. He sold a software company for about 20 mil, formed X com an online bank which merged with Paypal, sold to ebay for 1.4 bil, (Musk held 11%).
set up spaceX to launch rockets, makes a profit on each launch but nobody knows how much because it's all privately held. Set up Tesla which in it's 10 year existence has only had a handful of profitable quarters, makes 400 mil some years from carbon credits., now the most valuable car company in the world.

South Sea bubble?

 

[johnny2007]

It's Soros friend.

 

[fillyboy]

I've no problem with electric cars

 

[IT Minion]

SpaceX is the biggest space launch company there is at the moment. They're also most of the way through a new satellite system that will earn them billions each year for broadband that no one can compete with. As a bonus they're also diversifying into building satellites, which is a huge market. If their plans for the new supersized rocket works out, and it looks like it will, they're going to utterly transform access to space. No one doubts spaceX anymore, exact details might vary but he's done so many things that were unthinkable you'd have to be an idiot to bet against him.

Tesla is odd, the biggest EV manufacturer in the world and on the precipice of having working self driving vehicles. How do you price that?

 

[fillyboy]

Tesla is odd, the biggest EV manufacturer in the world and on the precipice of having working self driving vehicles. How do you price that?

• Finance – historical and project profit, cash flow and costs
• State of the economy
• Competitors – how much are your competitors (of a similar size) worth?
• Any patents or intellectual property that you own
• Strength of relationships with customers
• Value of assets and debt
• How many regular purchases / orders you have
• People – how loyal are your staff? Is the business dependent upon your personal skills?
• Reputation and brand name
• Marketing activity

Sure, there's huge potential, and that's difficult to price in, but the most valuable car producer in the world? sounds like a good short position to me.

 

[IT Minion]

• Finance – historical and project profit, cash flow and costs
• State of the economy
• Competitors – how much are your competitors (of a similar size) worth?
• Any patents or intellectual property that you own
• Strength of relationships with customers
• Value of assets and debt
• How many regular purchases / orders you have
• People – how loyal are your staff? Is the business dependent upon your personal skills?
• Reputation and brand name
• Marketing activity

Sure, there's huge potential, and that's difficult to price in, but the most valuable car producer in the world? sounds like a good short position to me.

Yeah, about that:

Tesla short sellers lost $40 billion in 2020. Elon Musk made more than triple that

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn.../tesla-shorts-losses-elon-musk-win/index.html

I'm not sure there's ever been a year where short sellers in Tesla would have come out ahead.

Betting against Tesla transferred enough Mon to Tesla shareholders to buy BMW last year.

 

[fillyboy]

I'm not sure there's ever been a year where short sellers in Tesla would have come out ahead.

So far, and the higher it goes, without profit, the more likely the fall. I wouldn't bet my house on it, but maybe that's why I've never made money on shares, or horses, or casinos.
Still, if I didn't have bad luck, I wouldn't have any luck at all, as the saying goes.

 

[IT Minion]

So far, and the higher it goes, without profit, the more likely the fall. I wouldn't bet my house on it, but maybe that's why I've never made money on shares, or horses, or casinos.
Still, if I didn't have bad luck, I wouldn't have any luck at all, as the saying goes.

Tesla has been profitable for five quarters now and becoming more profitable with time.

The main thing that stops them being more profitable is their intent to keep ramping up their volumes like their factories are powered by the British strain of Covid-19. The last drop out of profitability was to build their second big factory (China). Whilst still being profitable they've started on two others since then (Berlin, Texas).

 

[JohnD]

The main thing that stops them being more profitable is their intent to keep ramping up their volumes

Investment in plant and machinery does not reduce trading profit.

I wonder if their "profit" figure, whatever they claim it to be, is after deduction of interest payments, tax, depreciation?

 

[IT Minion]

Investment in plant and machinery does not reduce trading profit.

Qué?

 

[JohnD]

What do you mean when you say "profit?"

Bought some materials $1billion
Sold some cars $2billion
Workers pay and benefits $2billion
Interest paid $3billion
Royalty payments $5billion
Elon's private jet $1billion
Tax $1billion
Depreciation of plant and machinery $10billion
Redundancy payments $2billion
Closedown costs and writeoffs of outlets $5billion

What do you calculate the profit to be?

if you say it's just the top two lines, you're wrong.

 

[IT Minion]

What do you mean when you say "profit?"

Bought some materials $1billion
Sold some cars $2billion
Workers pay and benefits $2billion
Interest paid $3billion
Royalty payments $5billion
Elon's private jet $1billion
Tax $1billion
Depreciation of factory equipment $10billion

What do you calculate the profit to be?

Generally I use Operating profit or failing that EBT, but if there's a measure you prefer I'm sure you can find it somewhere. I'm not familiar with what 'trading profit' is for a company.

 

[fillyboy]

Tesla has been profitable for five quarters now and becoming more profitable with time.

The main thing that stops them being more profitable is their intent to keep ramping up their volumes like their factories are powered by the British strain of Covid-19. The last drop out of profitability was to build their second big factory (China). Whilst still being profitable they've started on two others since then (Berlin, Texas).

Yeah and I know they've been active in acquiring or at least buying into lithium mines, possibly Mexico, but at the end of the day, you need to sell a lot of units that cost twice as much as conventional units, and all at the same time the global economy is collapsing (being collapsed). I'd still go short.

Gotta admire the guy though, he's got balls and flare.

The thing is, Bill Gates or Jeff Bezos, it's easier to understand their wealth, either of those being the wealthiest bloke in the world, cool. Elon Musk?, I still don't get it.

 

[SirGalahad]

It's why investors look at Free Cash Flow. Profit can be manipulated like that Red Bus Logo, what was it again - £350m - has the NHS received its first £350m jab yet?