UK Policy of tackling covid through herd immunity

[JohnD]

What is the alternative? There is no vaccine.

Minimise the rate of infection and the spread of the disease.

 

[EddieM]

Hmm, tricky, it has been said that over clean houses and modern "sterile" environments have contributed to things like asthma and General allergies.

 

[Brigadier]

Are you and yours socially distancing then, Gal?
If so, for how long ?
If not, why not ?

@SirGalahad

 

[SirGalahad]

Are you and yours socially distancing then, Gal?
If so, for how long ?
If not, why not ?

Quite interesting you have asked me this twice. Looks like you think I am not following what I have been posting.

Short answer yes.

The best advice is that assume you have the virus and change your behaviour so as not to infect others. Myself and my kids are low risks - no health conditions so we will be able to see this through.

Tim Gowers a decorated mathematician and fields medal winner cannot fathom the Governments models - their data, assumptions and conclusions. The most important aspect as he points out is reducing R0

by reducing social contact.

The point about reducing social contact is to slow the spread so when people get ill then the NHS and services can deal with the a steady stream rather than the current tactic of let it be a deluge.

Here are the thoughts of a leading researcher on the Governments response.

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1238821515526897664

https://www.ft.com/content/f3136d0a-663e-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

An open letter signed by 240 scientists says: “By putting in place social distancing measures now, the growth can be slowed down dramatically, and thousands of lives can be spared.

But lets not stop there, the Governments response that we do not need social distancing because of "compliance fatigie" - well behavioural scientists are questioning that as well

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.

Look at this graph. Our trajectory and compare it Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong.

But on a final point can you cite me on single indcidence where in the case of a mutating virus humans have built a natural immunity?

So tell me what is your approach?

That is why it took a vaccine to eliminate polio, rubella and so on. Why we need flu jabs every year. We tried just letting people get all of those things. We kept dying, because we don't develop antibodies.

 

[SirGalahad]

Actually all those who support the Government policy and have older relatives have this conversation.

That you support the Governments response where current estimates means 1 in 5 of you (high risk group) will die. But when you get ill the NHS will have been overwhelmed and no one will be able to help you as there are no beds. You may most likely die at home as the Ambulances are not free. If you are lucky enough to get a bed, there will not be enough ventilators so your death will be slow and horrible. In fact your loved ones will not be allowed to see you. You will be surrounded by people in masks and aprons trying to ease your pain.

So please start having these conversations.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-senior-nhs-consultant-speaks-out

I’m worried that our hospital’s beds are already 98% full.
We don’t have enough isolation rooms or ventilators, which will be vital.
Too few beds, staff and equipment; I’m worried that the NHS is completely ill-equipped to handle Covid-19. When Boris Johnson talks about our wonderful NHS and how well-prepared it is, that’s bullshit. He either doesn’t have a clue or is trying to falsely reassure people.

Dying because you are struggling to breathe is a horrible way to go; it’s very distressing for the patients, their family and the staff treating them. Relatives will not be able to kiss loved ones goodbye. In Italy, doctors and nurses are videocalling people so they can say farewell.

 

[Brigadier]

@SirGalahad

I was interested in whether your deluge of "the UK approach is shoite" posting was hollow talk, and you were in fact just taking the contrary position for its own sake.

Me? Steady as she goes, is my approach. I don't tend to go around in strangers ' back pockets, or huddle in close proximity with the unwashed hoards.

Social isolation and economic hardship are likely to be serious threats to health and well being, so (in the absence of an effective vaccine), all approaches will be a compromise to some degree.

 

[transam]

May be just let the virus spread

Actually all those who support the Government policy and have older relatives have this conversation.

That you support the Governments response where current estimates means 1 in 5 of you (high risk group) will die. But when you get ill the NHS will have been overwhelmed and no one will be able to help you as there are no beds. You may most likely die at home as the Ambulances are not free. If you are lucky enough to get a bed, there will not be enough ventilators so your death will be slow and horrible. In fact your loved ones will not be allowed to see you. You will be surrounded by people in masks and aprons trying to ease your pain.

So please start having these conversations.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-senior-nhs-consultant-speaks-out

I’m worried that our hospital’s beds are already 98% full.
We don’t have enough isolation rooms or ventilators, which will be vital.
Too few beds, staff and equipment; I’m worried that the NHS is completely ill-equipped to handle Covid-19. When Boris Johnson talks about our wonderful NHS and how well-prepared it is, that’s bullshit. He either doesn’t have a clue or is trying to falsely reassure people.

Dying because you are struggling to breathe is a horrible way to go; it’s very distressing for the patients, their family and the staff treating them. Relatives will not be able to kiss loved ones goodbye. In Italy, doctors and nurses are videocalling people so they can say farewell.

Get a grip ffs

Jeez us wept it's people like you who spread panic and mayhem

In some respects it's to fit yer political narrative

Wind yer neck in u b*** end

 

[SirGalahad]

@SirGalahad

I was interested in whether your deluge of "the UK approach is shoite" posting was hollow talk, and you were in fact just taking the contrary position for its own sake.

Me? Steady as she goes, is my approach. I don't tend to go around in strangers ' back pockets, or huddle in close proximity with the unwashed hoards.

Social isolation and economic hardship are likely to be serious threats to health and well being, so (in the absence of an effective vaccine), all approaches will be a compromise to some degree.

Economic hardship cannot be avoided - anyone who thinks that is bonkers. So that is no excuse.

All the scientists are asking for is the Governments models, data and assumptions so it can be peer reviewed and if they are correct shouldn't they then share this with the rest of the world - their novel approach. It would create so much goodwill.

As to social isolation - this reflects both our society and poor social services which have been cut to the bone.

 

[SirGalahad]

May be just let the virus spread


Get a grip ffs

Jeez us wept it's people like you who spread panic and mayhem

In some respects it's to fit yer political narrative

Wind yer neck in u b*** end

How old are you? Do you smoke and have any underlying health conditions?

I am pretty confident it will not affect me. So how confident are you?

If you are lucky.

 

[transam]

Advant

How old are you? Do you smoke and have any underlying health conditions?

I am pretty confident it will not affect me. So how confident are you?

If you are lucky.

Yes to all the above

The grim reaper will be visiting me

Tis a question of do not ask for whom the bell. Tolls it tolls for thee

 

[SirGalahad]

I still don't think people are really understanding the issue.

Reducing social contact helps to slow the spread of the virus so that the NHS can deal with the sick. The virus will affect a large percentage of the population - what we need is for this to happen over a longer period - that's all.

Whether or not a virus is found in 12 months - this approach helps us to spread the workload.

 

[SirGalahad]

Advant



Yes to all the above

The grim reaper will be visiting me

Tis a question of do not ask for whom the bell. Tolls it tolls for thee

That's your choice but you cannot make that choice for others. So if you do get sick you will not call the NHS then?

 

[transam]

I still don't think people are really understanding the issue.

Reducing social contact helps to slow the spread of the virus so that the NHS can deal with the sick. The virus will affect a large percentage of the population - what we need is for this to happen over a longer period - that's all.

Whether or not a virus is found in 12 months - this approach helps us to spread the workload.

Yes we all. Understand we all listen to TV
Radio
Social. Media
Listen to u spreading panic at every given opurtunity

Blaming government
Brexit voters

Bla Bla Bla

What do u want people to do ffs
Arrest any one that sneezes or cough

Troops on the street enforcing Curfews

 

[Brigadier]

Economic hardship cannot be avoided - anyone who thinks that is bonkers. So that is no excuse.

And your equating a degree of manageable hardship for many, to much more complete hardship for many more, is disingenuous.

All the scientists are asking for is the Governments models, data and assumptions so it can be peer reviewed and if they are correct shouldn't they then share this with the rest of the world - their novel approach. It would create so much goodwill.

.

I agree, to a degree. However, delay will cost lives, and what happened to your stance on "experts"? Is it only the experts with which fit in with your own prejudice? (unless you are an expert yourself)?

As to social isolation - this reflects both our society and poor social services which have been cut to the bone.

But mostly our society, the rest is just another jibe.

 

[transam]

That's your choice but you cannot make that choice for others. So if you do get sick you will not call the NHS then?

If I get it than I will go down the local council office and request a meeting with the big I am who runs it and with luck transmit it to him

That will be pay back for the hassle he caused me

I will than go around some customers who owe money knock on there door when they answer sneeze