Bojonomics - UK banks warn 40%-50% of ‘bounce back’ borrowers will default

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Rishi is as wasteful with money as Bojo. These companies will just default or the Government to save face will convert the loans to grants.

This is just throwing money at businesses that were not very viable in the first place. Rishi should have held onto the money to effect a quicker turnaround. All he has done is delay the inevitable and guaranteed a sluggish recovery.


UK banks are warning that up to half of the £18.5bn of “bounce back” coronavirus loans are unlikely to be repaid and are lobbying the chancellor to prepare for the collapse of hundreds of thousands of small businesses.

Three senior bankers estimated between 40 per cent and 50 per cent of the 608,000 borrowers who have accessed the Bounce Back Loan Scheme, or BBLS, could eventually default on the debt as the prospect of a quick economic recovery fades. The emergency BBLS facilities are capped at £50,000 with a term of up to six years and come with a 100 per cent government guarantee on the capital and interest. Although the guarantee spares the banks from credit risk, executives are worried that pursuing through the courts hundreds of thousands of small, often family-run businesses — which have borrowed an average of £30,000 each — would be logistically impossible and a “PR disaster”.

Under the terms of BBLS participation it is made clear that banks bear the responsibility of pursuing delinquent borrowers. The Treasury and the British Business Bank, the government-owned development bank that is administering the scheme, have advised lenders to use their normal approach to collections on the loans.

The biggest lenders in the scheme, Lloyds, Royal Bank of Scotland, HSBC and Barclays, have been clear to borrowers that the money is a loan that will need to be repaid, although there is nothing due in the first 12 months and no interest charged to the borrower in that period.

One executive said about a quarter of the loans would not have been made under normal lending practices. However, the Treasury instructed banks not to perform standard credit checks — apart from basic viability and fraud screening — to speed up the payments and help stave off bankruptcy for companies unable to endure the lockdown.
 
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If that many default, then it will simply lead to a continuation of money printing in a vain attempt to stave off the inevitable.
There is already an existing example. Student loans actually cost more to the UK than providing free University courses.
Because the unsustainable debt threshold of those loans (aka inability to pay back) was breached several years ago. And as well as burdening people with a lifetime of debt and affecting their borrowing ability, it is a burden on the UK's finances.

Mass unemployment will follow mass defaults, and a downward spiral in the economy becomes almost inevitable. Already decimated public services will become totally unsustainable due to rapidly falling tax revenue.
And of course that will make the pound worth less, in addition to the event about to happen at the end of the year.

The UK is of course not unique in this respect, apart from brexit.
However it is the country that has sold off more of it's assets than almost any other country.
The UK has virtually nothing it owns to fall back on to generate income.
(funny how the tories derided calls to renationalise utilities and transport which would have cost far less over a decade than they are splashing out in a year!)

And if house prices start to fall substantially then the 'assets' most people use to back up loans or fund their pensions will rapidly disappear.
Game over!

At some point, the Fiat system of currency and the debt that has built up world wide will have to undergo a 'ctrl+alt+del', otherwise the great depression will be but a minor blip!

Edit: Personally I expect a 'Cyprus haircut' to be attempted first.
 
At some point, the Fiat system of currency and the debt that has built up world wide will have to undergo a 'ctrl+alt+del', otherwise the great depression will be but a minor blip!

Something I've been advocating for a long time.

Edit: Personally I expect a 'Cyprus haircut' to be attempted first.


Possibly for countries obliged to follow orders from the Reichstag. UK will no longer be following orders from Germany. It wont happen here.
 
Possibly for countries obliged to follow orders from the Reichstag. UK will no longer be following orders from Germany. It wont happen here.
Yet another delusion.

The ability for the BofE to perform a financial 'haircut' has also been in UK law for years.
 
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LOL Some one has printed the obvious at last. Infantile as usual as no consideration about what would happen without the various forms of financial aid handed out.

There is no point what so ever spouting about any action without considering what would happen if that action wasn't taken. Something the general media seldom if ever does. It's generally far more interested in finding problems often from particular sources that find problems with what ever action has been taken. Other sources might see them as not being a problem. No point in reporting them.

As Sunak has said - there is no way he can guarantee that all jobs will remain or that some wont drop through the support net. That's life in the real world. That doesn't mean kick the entire idea into touch as it will work for some.

Lets say the loans were paid back. Additional running costs, Prices go up. Inflation :) bank of england increases base rates to curb it. Maybe they go for the negative interest idea - chaos. I'd want all I have back in my pocket. It isn't much but no way am I going to allow it depreciate that way. This is what world wide or at least the west meetings are probably about. Frankly I suspect there is a chance that we might fair better in the Euro but other countries have their own currencies.
 
Although I can appreciate the furlough scheme cant continue indefinitely, asking businesses to fork out when they probably have serious cashflow problems is likely to result in significant numbers of workers being laid off.
 
Just heard of a bloke who has just scammed rishi for £150k.
Has wound up 3 fake businesses @ £50k a pop and declared them bust.
He will just start up again under a new name. And £150k in the bank.
 
Not the point.

The ability is there in UK law, and you trying to pass the blame for all ills onto the EU is laughable!

The ability will be there for any number of Sovereign States, doesn't mean they will especially if it means political suicide.

The 'Cyprus haircut' was a condition laid down by the EU and IMF in exchange for a 10 billion bailout package.
It's Germanys standard modus operandi, it's what they do. It's what being in the EU is all about.

So, If not Germany (EU) who do you think should take the rap for the 'Cyprus haircut'
 
Germanys
Germany

You say 'Germany' are personally responsible for the 'Cyprus haircut'. How so?

In what way does Germany benefit from it?

Explain (truthfully) please and without using any biased right wing anti-EU references. Neutral sources only.
 
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The ability will be there for any number of Sovereign States
Ah, so despite being in the EU the UK is indeed a sovereign state and can make it's own decisions.
Funny how we were told we had to 'take back control' in order to do so, but in fact we always had control!

And in a way although not a one off hit, we've all (apart from the rich/corporates) had a 'financial haircut' due to a decade of austerity.
Savings rates and wage growth below inflation and benefit/tax credit freezes or reductions.

Again the ability of a sovereign country to set it's own rules whilst being in the EU.
Of course the gullible were told it was all the EU's fault and they fell for it!
 
had a 'financial haircut' due to a decade of austerity
very true -although only applies to the poor plebs, last 10 yeas has seen a huge rise in the income of top earners -Try austerity is all about jobs for the boys, austerity for the rest.
 
very true -although only applies to the poor plebs, last 10 yeas has seen a huge rise in the income of top earners -Try austerity is all about jobs for the boys, austerity for the rest.

Is this a global phenomenon, Europe wide or is it exclusive to the UK, I'm referring to both the wealth divide and austerity. Be honest.
 
You say 'Germany' are personally responsible for the 'Cyprus haircut'. How so?

In what way does Germany benefit from it?

Explain (truthfully) please and without using any biased right wing anti-EU references. Neutral sources only.

A neutral source will say EU/IMF, for EU I read Germany/France. Ask the Greeks they'll tell you.(y)
 
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