Omicron variant caught a cold
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Might be a rather presumptuous news.
Coronavirus. These tend to do their dirty work in the winter and early spring. The coronavirus is the cause of about 20% of colds. There are more than 30 kinds, but only three or four affect people.
They just need to find out what this one does over all. And the next if one crops up. Did I see USA media sources mentioned? Oh well.
Coronavirus. These tend to do their dirty work in the winter and early spring. The coronavirus is the cause of about 20% of colds. There are more than 30 kinds, but only three or four affect people.
They just need to find out what this one does over all. And the next if one crops up. Did I see USA media sources mentioned? Oh well.
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It was suggested very early from SA infections. The rate of rise of cases is high, and reports of it having been found in earlier and earlier samples, back to October now iirc. But, a lack of severe cases.
SA cases in hospital milder and shorter than at equivalent stage of delta, sort of results.
How many omicron deaths have there been, at this stage where there's global(ish) transmission and thousands of cases?
As far as I can find, none.
Some died from delta quickly though most took a couple of weeks
Many countries have got sequencing going now so it is being tracked quite well.
Yes it's early to predict much but it doesn't look like it's going to kill a high %age. It could have been a lot worse - they say the original SARS killed 10% and Mers higher. (Some of the bat viruses in in-vitro tests which have been done, which theoretically could transfer to humans, are astonishingly dangerous, they'd be plague proportions.)
Just playing with numbers:
If "they" are right and omi doubles in 2 days, and we have 1000 cases now, it's about one month until everyone in the country who's going to get it, will have it
(15 doublings means x32000 roughly, so that means 30 days, 32 million peeps.)
Using "Estimated rates of influenza-associated pulmonary and circulatory deaths/100,000 persons were 0.4--0.6 among persons aged 0-49 years, 7.5 among persons aged 50--64 years, and 98.3 among persons aged > 65 years." (so that's a flu) that would be about 30,000 oldest dying off. Not so bad then, but hospitals stuffed.
SA cases in hospital milder and shorter than at equivalent stage of delta, sort of results.
How many omicron deaths have there been, at this stage where there's global(ish) transmission and thousands of cases?
As far as I can find, none.
Some died from delta quickly though most took a couple of weeks
Many countries have got sequencing going now so it is being tracked quite well.
Yes it's early to predict much but it doesn't look like it's going to kill a high %age. It could have been a lot worse - they say the original SARS killed 10% and Mers higher. (Some of the bat viruses in in-vitro tests which have been done, which theoretically could transfer to humans, are astonishingly dangerous, they'd be plague proportions.)
Just playing with numbers:
If "they" are right and omi doubles in 2 days, and we have 1000 cases now, it's about one month until everyone in the country who's going to get it, will have it
(15 doublings means x32000 roughly, so that means 30 days, 32 million peeps.)
Using "Estimated rates of influenza-associated pulmonary and circulatory deaths/100,000 persons were 0.4--0.6 among persons aged 0-49 years, 7.5 among persons aged 50--64 years, and 98.3 among persons aged > 65 years." (so that's a flu) that would be about 30,000 oldest dying off. Not so bad then, but hospitals stuffed.
a pre print study about omicron catching a cold is her:
https://www.nference.com/publications/YamgzBMAADIAxXym
DrBeen has made a video about it ( warning: I’m not suggesting this is evidence nor fact)
John Campbell has made a video where he is suggesting that it may be good news (warning: not fact in any way shape or form, just a hypothesis)
They keep making the point that the age spectra of SA is totally different to the UK. We have a larger proportion of older people. They do the sums and if it can make enough people ill in numbers we are back to protect the NHS who also need to treat people for other things. Sick joke - maybe we should have kept the fever hospitals.
In some ways it could be said the dead don't matter as the problem is people who need time in to recover. The highest age group last week in hospital by far was the 45 to 54's. Highest deaths 80+ and some in their 50's. A few younger. The hospital counts have started to creep up. The dead tend to spend more time in hospital. Studies have found that when the hospitals get too busy death rates increase by ~20%. Treatments have improved but if too many choices have to be made. You may have heard about disabled for instance but there are other factors. One such example is heart and lung machines - unless very young and fit people are unlikely to get the use of one. Part of this is likely survival rates from the actual treatments.
Mid 20's 18% of the population were over 65. A lot of people are between 45 and ~56 due to baby booms
In some ways it could be said the dead don't matter as the problem is people who need time in to recover. The highest age group last week in hospital by far was the 45 to 54's. Highest deaths 80+ and some in their 50's. A few younger. The hospital counts have started to creep up. The dead tend to spend more time in hospital. Studies have found that when the hospitals get too busy death rates increase by ~20%. Treatments have improved but if too many choices have to be made. You may have heard about disabled for instance but there are other factors. One such example is heart and lung machines - unless very young and fit people are unlikely to get the use of one. Part of this is likely survival rates from the actual treatments.
Mid 20's 18% of the population were over 65. A lot of people are between 45 and ~56 due to baby booms
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D
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I'll ignore one post. Recent reports , yesterday
Interesting - do many 20-29 year old have kids? Pass but in waves things haven't looked like that. Max at lower age groups then tapering off with age.
Admission have changed the 25-45's have joined in making up the total numbers in more than they did.
Vaccines make no difference at all of course.
Interesting - do many 20-29 year old have kids? Pass but in waves things haven't looked like that. Max at lower age groups then tapering off with age.
Admission have changed the 25-45's have joined in making up the total numbers in more than they did.
Vaccines make no difference at all of course.
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Yes of course the demographic is younger in SA than here, but it's precisely the same as when the other variants hit them!
Having said 3 jabs would "neutralize" omi, they now say we must have 4 jabs.
Meanwhile one person in the US has had to go to hospital, shock horror.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticl...true&faf=1&src=WNL_mdpls_211210_mscpedit_infd
Having said 3 jabs would "neutralize" omi, they now say we must have 4 jabs.
Meanwhile one person in the US has had to go to hospital, shock horror.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticl...true&faf=1&src=WNL_mdpls_211210_mscpedit_infd
2 weeks from infection to hospitalisation, roughly speaking. How many would people expect to be hospitalised at this point In the UK and US?
The only decent data we have on Omicron is it's rate of spread. Everything else is highly speculative. But because of the rate of spread there is no time to wait and see.
The only decent data we have on Omicron is it's rate of spread. Everything else is highly speculative. But because of the rate of spread there is no time to wait and see.
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You can look at the numbers in SA, where it's been since October.
It isn't as serious as their previous variants, they tell us. That's from the number having to go to hospital because of it,
and the number of those needing ventilation
and the number dying. (0)
Their number of cases is in the tens of thousands, rising rapidly.
What is it about Africans that makes them in your opinion not decent enough to be able to count?
Something else to twitch an eyebrow is that children under the age of 2 account for about 10% of total hospital admissions in the omicron epicenter Tshwane.
It isn't as serious as their previous variants, they tell us. That's from the number having to go to hospital because of it,
and the number of those needing ventilation
and the number dying. (0)
Their number of cases is in the tens of thousands, rising rapidly.
What is it about Africans that makes them in your opinion not decent enough to be able to count?
Something else to twitch an eyebrow is that children under the age of 2 account for about 10% of total hospital admissions in the omicron epicenter Tshwane.
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Not as simple as that.
Let's suppose it's half as deadly
But twice as infectious.
Your avatar, Enoch Powell….he was a man of great intellect. There are some interviews with him on YouTube, really interesting to watch……makes the current politicians look like a bunch of thickos.
you are of course wrong about the ‘rona.
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I've already answered that - as have others. You can alter the numbers I used, for yourself. Ask if you need help.......
The main thing which is clear though few here want to say it, is that it isn't as pathogenic as delta. Look at the numbers. Add that most of SA is nowhere near as vaccinated as us.
You should also be able to find that the majority of the infected are young. That is the other catch.
They are now saying it will probably take another 3 weeks to get firmer ideas here about what it means in practice. At least has also been mentioned.
Think back to how long it took here to get the original covid wide spread across the country. Weeks and weeks and weeks with densities building up faster in larger cities to the extent some were joking about the people who lived in them often with racial slurs. Eventually the home counties got hit pretty hard and etc.
Curious thing is infection levels in London are fairly low or were last week. Maybe they take it more seriously from previous experience.
Some one mentioned SARS. That was SARS-COV1, this one is SARS-COV2 . Some have used year dates rather than 1 or 2.
No you didn't, because it was not a question.
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