Fuel Price Shoots Up, what a surprise.

[Avocet]

Let's see how many of those 10 yo milk floats will be still on the road in 10 years.
My bet: none.

...by which you mean 20 years from date of manufacture? Fair enough. Be sure to bookmark this page...

Of course, the real question to be asking, is what percentage of them are still going to be around at 20 years old, compared to the percentage of ICEs the same age. The average ICE car doesn't last more than 15 years at present, and goes to its grave with a mere 158,000 miles on it.

Frankly, that's a bet I wouldn't want to place, but maybe you've got plenty of money that you don't mind losing...?

 

[Brigadier]

A novel way to estimate car longevity shows that electric vehicles’ life mileage is increasing fast - British Politics and Policy at LSE

A car’s longevity is important for consumers’ budgets as well as for the environment. However, reliable evidence on the longevity of electric vehicles is hard to come by. Viet Nguyen-Tien and Robert Elliot (along with fellow authors) developed a way to estimate the lifespans of various vehicles...

blogs.lse.ac.uk

For now, it appears that BEVs have caught up and will soon overtake other types of cars in terms of longevity. Coupled with lower maintenance costs the EV revolution appears to be gathering steam (or voltage).

 

[Avocet]

That is 1 hell of a bet.

To be fair, it's a very slightly safer bet than his previous assertion!

The very few 10 yo milk floats on the road today won't get 20 miles off a full charge, unless they had battery replaced at cost of a very decent used petrol car.

Why do you think an EV will be less likely to be on the road in 10 years than an ICE ?

I expect his neighbour told him... and as he's already said, he is pretty gullible:

I reported a statement made by my neighbour.
Unlike halfwit like you who think that the whole world is a lie and need proof of everything, even opinions, I take what people say as good.
I couldn't give a toss if what he said is a lie or not.

What I'm itching to know, is whether his neighbour is also a Nigerian prince...

People spend money on them, they tend to keep the value in their car by reegular servicing and maintenance. Those costs on EV are without any doubt much cheaper.

This is from a petrolhead with 3 ice cars and no EV, so not an EV supporter, just a mechanic watching the trade change in front of my eyes.

And in another 10 years, I'm pretty certain it will have changed quite a lot. We had this with fuel injection and engine management. Some mechanics just couldn't (or wouldn't) move on from carburetors. Others hung up their timing lights and their Gunson's "Colortune" kits and invested their time in new skills and equipment. (I expect they're the ones still making a living at it today).

10 years from now, I imagine there will be more independents who will plug in a diagnostic dongle, find out which cells are duff in which modules, and drop the battery pack to replace them for you for a few hundred quid. If too many cells are bad, they might offer to fit you a recon battery pack. And yes, I imagine there will also be places specialising in second hand and reconditioned battery packs, just as they do with engines today.

ICE-only mechanics will find themselves competing for a shrinking pool of work - not unlike farriers and piano tuners today.

 

[Brigadier]

10 years from now, I imagine there will be more independents who will plug in a diagnostic dongle, find out which cells are duff in which modules, and drop the battery pack to replace them for you for a few hundred quid

My mate is an BEV convert (currently in a Volvo and, before that, a Jaaaag) yet, even when I showed him links to such places, he still doesn't really believe they exist


"How do they replace individual cells? The battery is under the car!"

"Same way they built the car in the first place, but in reverse, I expect: lift the car off the battery .............."

 

[johnny2007]

That is 1 hell of a bet.

Why do you think an EV will be less likely to be on the road in 10 years than an ICE ?

People spend money on them, they tend to keep the value in their car by reegular servicing and maintenance. Those costs on EV are without any doubt much cheaper.

This is from a petrolhead with 3 ice cars and no EV, so not an EV supporter, just a mechanic watching the trade change in front of my eyes.

Because the batteries won't last 20 years and it would be uneconomical to replace.
Those scraps would be worth nothing in 20 years, so nobody would be so stupid to spend thousands on new batteries.
Just for comparison, on Autotrader there are over 115.000 over 10 yo cars for sale and a lot of them will still be sold in 10 years time.
I have 2 over 20 yo cars, both still perfectly sellable.
And let's not forget that people buying milk floats are the kind who lease it having no money to spend, so they'll trash and replace every 3 years making the value go down even faster and making them unsellable.
So they're destined for the scrappy in surely less than 20 years...
Although there's no much metal on those milk floats.

...by which you mean 20 years from date of manufacture? Fair enough. Be sure to bookmark this page...

Of course, the real question to be asking, is what percentage of them are still going to be around at 20 years old, compared to the percentage of ICEs the same age. The average ICE car doesn't last more than 15 years at present, and goes to its grave with a mere 158,000 miles on it.

Frankly, that's a bet I wouldn't want to place, but maybe you've got plenty of money that you don't mind losing...?

Where do you grt all of this boll@x from?
Do you have the book of bullshyt on your desk?
You think that 15 years and 158k miles is a low number???
F#ck me upside down!

 

[Avocet]

My mate is an BEV convert (currently in a Volvo and, before that, a Jaaaag) yet, even when I showed him links to such places, he still doesn't really believe they exist


"How do they replace individual cells? The battery is under the car!"

"Same way they built the car in the first place, but in reverse, I expect: lift the car off the battery .............."

The battery pack usually drops down from underneath the car. It's typically bolted to the chassis in a fair number of places, and then there are obviously power and communications cables going to it and cooling hoses. We do it fairly regularly at work when we're converting them.

You'd lift the car on its normal jacking points and do all of the disconnecting first...

check for no voltage coming down the big, scary orange cables, (which means you've isolated the cells correctly)..

Then we tend to use these scissor lift trolleys to take the weight of the battery while we take the big bolts out...

Then just lower the scissor lift and wheel the battery out.

Of course these days, many f the EVs are also ICEs, so the batteries are a bit of an odd shape to use up space vacated by he ICE powertrain. In the future, they're likely to look a lot neater and more integrated, but the principle would be the same, the battery pack comes out from underneath.

 

[Avocet]

Where do you grt all of this boll@x from?

SMMT mainly - some of it DVLA. How about you? "Your neighbour"?

Do you have the book of bullshyt on your desk?

We tend to use computers these days...

You think that 15 years and 158k miles is a low number???

Yes, to be honest. Particularly the mileage. Do you think either of them are too high? Do you have any figures that you think are more accurate?

F#ck me upside down!

I'd rather not, if it's all the same to you...

 

[carmanmemoranda]

Because the batteries won't last 20 years and it would be uneconomical to replace.

Possibly, but battery and/or cell repalcement has been happening on traction batteries for years, i don't understand why it won't continue, or even become a growing market.

Those scraps would be worth nothing in 20 years, so nobody would be so stupid to spend thousands on new batteries.

See above

Just for comparison, on Autotrader there are over 115.000 over 10 yo cars for sale and a lot of them will still be sold in 10 years time.

And a lot of those will be poor. I MOT cars for a living, and I pass stuff that should be in the scrap yard becasue the test criteria is so low. Just because it is for sale doesn't mean it is a good car.

I have 2 over 20 yo cars, both still perfectly sellable.

Probably not for as much as you might want them to be worth.

And let's not forget that people buying milk floats are the kind who lease it having no money to spend, so they'll trash and replace every 3 years making the value go down even faster and making them unsellable.
So they're destined for the scrappy in surely less than 20 years...
Although there's no much metal on those milk floats.

A big proportion will be business use, and sold off at the end of their financial term. What do you think also happens to those that are leased ?

Where do you grt all of this boll@x from?
Do you have the book of bullshyt on your desk?
You think that 15 years and 158k miles is a low number???
F#ck me upside down!

ICE cars often get written off, scrapped because of the cost of repairs, such as clutch, gearbox, engine, bodywork repairs. A recent example I saw was a Citroen headlamp needed replacing, at nearly £1000, plus other repairs needed to brakes and suspension, the bill was around £1500 Imagine if it failed on 2 of those lights at an MOT for example. the actual fault was the built in led side/drl light. Not replaceable.

Scrapping ICE cars before the end of their mechanical useful life happens, daily. Way before the average mileage of 158K

 

[robinbanks]

Where do you grt all of this boll@x from?
Do you have the book of bullshyt on your desk?

Genuinely, as a so-so interested passerby on the thread I do have those thoughts as I read down the posts..

..but not when I read Avocet's posts