What's happened to the small boats?

"Has Brexit exacerbated the small boats crisis?"

Yes, experts and reports indicate that Brexit has exacerbated the small boats crisis.
Leaving the European Union ended the UK's participation in the Dublin Regulation and access to EU-wide fingerprint databases, making it significantly harder to legally return asylum seekers to the first safe European country they entered.
Key Ways Brexit Impacted the Crisis
Loss of Returns Agreements: The UK lost its legal mechanism to deport unauthorized arrivals back to EU member states, creating a powerful pull factor for cross-Channel migration.
No Database Access: Britain lost real-time access to the EU's fingerprint database (Eurodac), preventing authorities from easily checking if an asylum seeker had already been rejected elsewhere in Europe.Incentive for Smugglers: People-smuggling networks use the lack of a post-Brexit EU-wide returns deal as a marketing tool, assuring migrants they cannot easily be sent back.

Alternative Perspectives
Wider Global Trends: Critics of blaming Brexit argue that global conflicts, climate change, poverty, and the professionalization of transnational smuggling gangs play a far larger role.
Government Stance: Some government ministers and political figures maintain that domestic factors, legal backlogs, and underground labor markets are primary drivers, asserting that the small boats issue is not fundamentally a "Brexit-made" failure.

Explore an analysis of the trends from the Migration Observatory.
Read an academic breakdown by Durham University on post-Brexit border strategies.
Review policy options via Migration Policy Institute regarding EU-UK readmissions.
good effort… from your AI. I wonder how many times you had to phrase the question before it agreed with you.
 
good effort… from your AI. I wonder how many times you had to phrase the question before it agreed with you.

Doesn't matter how you phrase it.


Has Brexit resulted in more small boat crossings?

Small boat crossings have increased significantly since the UK voted to leave the European Union, rising from just 299 recorded arrivals in 2018 to tens of thousands annually in the 2020s, peaking at over 45,000 in 2022 and remaining at high levels since. [1, 2, 3]

The Connection to Brexit
    • Loss of EU Returns Agreements: Leaving the EU meant the UK automatically exited the Dublin III Regulation, which previously allowed the UK to legally return asylum seekers to the first safe EU country they entered. [1]
    • No Replacement Deal: The government did not negotiate a similar post-Brexit returns arrangement with the EU, making the deportation or return of unauthorized arrivals vastly more difficult. [1]
    • Perceived Pull Factor: Migration researchers note that the absence of a returns mechanism acts as an incentive, assuring migrants that they face a lower risk of being sent back to Europe if they reach British shores. [1, 2]
    • Database Access: The UK lost real-time access to the Eurodac fingerprint database, making it harder for border officials to prove travel routes through Europe. [1]
 
good effort… from your AI. I wonder how many times you had to phrase the question before it agreed with you.

Has illegal immigration increased because of Brexit?

Yes, unauthorized or irregular immigration to the UK has increased significantly since the end of the Brexit transition period, driven largely by a sharp rise in small boat crossings across the English Channel. Around 264,000 unauthorized arrivals were recorded between 2018 and 2025, and asylum applications reached historic highs, though overall numbers have shown some fluctuations and recent declines in specific periods. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Factors Driving the Increase
    • Small Boat Crossings: The dominant route for unauthorized entry shifted heavily toward Channel crossings, which escalated rapidly post-2020. [1]
    • Loss of EU Return Mechanisms: Leaving the EU meant the UK no longer had automatic access to the EU's Dublin Regulation, limiting its ability to swiftly return asylum seekers to the first safe European country they passed through. [1]
    • Cooperation and Database Access: Post-Brexit, the UK lost direct real-time access to certain EU-wide security and migration databases like Europol's management systems, which some analysts argue complicated early tracking and enforcement.
 
That'll work....once they realise the French will have them back they will stop going to France, and in turn our old codgers can fall asleep in the park without fear.

Not just our old codgers, what about amazing looking people like me that can lay asleep in the parks too.
 
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