I think Iran will never give in. They'll give a bit, Trump will declare it a victory, and Iran will, over time, get back to where they were.
And Iran will say they have beaten the infidels...
Iran is not unified. The boss of Chevron was on Bloomberg saying there have been far more ship attacks than the press has reported.
Any less-strict regime will be seen as weaker, which the fundamentalists in Iran and militants wouldn't like. It would be like asking the pope to be a bit less catholic, or Netty to be a bit less jewish.
Building a proper A-bomb is hard but they could do plenty of damage with the enriched U that they have.
They did it once, so why not again.
The stock market jumps up or down, then we find out what Trump tweeted to cause it, and make money out of the reversing of the change when it turns out to be wrong. Such fun