China has contained the pandemic .......

[FrodoOne]

only 99% of people will survive. So based on that, we need to be prepared for around 600,000 deaths in the UK.

Which may not be a bad average outcome - if you are not in an area of socio/economic disadvantage, are not afflicted with an "underlying" condition - and you do have the NHS or an equivalent medical service.

Please consider that the "Death Rate" from those who contract Influenza every year is about 0.01 % and, mainly, with the "Elderly".

In the case of the pandemic commonly known as "Spanish Flue" in 1918, the average death rate was about 3% BUT it was much worse in areas of "socio/economic" disadvantage. (It actually killed more persons than had been killed in WWI.)
Also, the viral "cause" was not then known, (so vaccines could not [eventually] be produced).

 

[JP_]

Some good stats here:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03...n-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

"The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39."

"The difference is fatality rates, however, is real: 1.7% for women and 2.8% for men, China CDC reported"

 

[FrodoOne]

"The difference is fatality rates, however, is real: 1.7% for women and 2.8% for men, China CDC reported"

Which indicates that "Man Flu" is probably worse.

 

[ajohn]

Here's a country that has contained it rather well. It's put down to the fact that they have had previous practice in this area and have learned their lesson.

https://fortune.com/2020/02/28/singapore-coronavirus-contained-response/

It's interesting that they launched a web site to count people in self isolation and also clamped down hard.

Here we seem to have been more interested in keeping a feeble economy going that will get more feeble anyway for reasons other than brexit.

 

[IT Minion]

Which indicates that "Man Flu" is probably worse.

Fun fact, women's immune systems are stronger than Men's. So on average Men will catch more and suffer more with colds and flu.

 

[ajohn]

Why is it that the health system in Italy seems to be such an "Outlier"?

The WHO commented on reported death rates - cherry picking numbers. Seemed to relate to using those where treatment was available and not total from day one. Figures for some countries suggest around 4%. That's 1 in 25.

Italy different? A comment in a tv interview. I've not looked for info elsewhere but it seems that people over 65 don't get a respirator if they need one.

The 7 day self isolation is interesting as well. Even if recovered the virus is likely to be still around, seems this is normal for viral diseases. 7 days also seems to be the time taken for it to get far more serious if it's going to. The Beeb interviewed a woman that had been through this. Not much of a problem then suddenly found it hard to breath, I assume she was put on a respirator, age I'd say in mid 30's. She was cured but now ran out breath walking and had never had that experience before. Seems there can be another stage as well. Probably terminal what ever is done - immune system goes into overdrive and result in it destroying many of the bodies organs.

No more testing in the UK if people self isolate so in real terms no way of knowing how many are. They currently reckon that there are 6 to 10,000 people walking around with it and unaware of the fact but frankly I can't see how they can be aware of how many there are.

A cynic might say dead people don't vote and the economy is all important. Seems bottles of oxygen and face masks are in short supply in Italy at least. That's what a respirator seems to be going on one hospital comment - so many patients they ran out. If its more complicated than that pass there isn't sufficient info about.