Crystal ball time - building supplies price predictions?

[kingandy2nd]

Hey folks,

I appreciate there's lots of different factors at play here (supply, demand, inflation, etc) and that there's variability between individual products, but I'm interested to hear folks thoughts/experiences when it comes to the price of building supplies and their predictions for the next couple of years when it comes to prices?

Through the pandemic there was massive inflation on a lot of building products, when the perfect storm of supply chain issues was coupled with a large increase in demand as people focused on home improvements/extensions.

In my (DIYer) experience, some building items have started to reduce in price over the past year, but are still around double the pre-pandemic prices (think blocks, plaster, etc)

Now as the cost of living crisis starts to bite, and folks may have (or may be anticipating having) significant increases to their mortgage costs too, I would imagine that people might start to put off or scale-back future DIY/building plans. Especially when such work is coupled with the already high prices of materials.

So could that lead to deflationary pressure on building materials, if supply starts to outstrip supply? What do you guys think?

(I'm sure the same concerns could effect tradespeople as well, with fewer bookings in the pipeline...but I'm sure the good tradespeople will always have work).

 

[johnny2007]

Yes, your thinking sounds right.
However, retails are now run by monkeys with a degree in business who have never touched a screw in their life.
So, maybe they'll think: "There's less demand now and our warehouses are full. Let's put the prices up for those fools who are still buying and have no choice (emergency/maintenance)".

 

[^woody^]

Timber is coming down.

Manufactured materials, particularly using energy in the production process - cement, bricks, clay tiles, plaster, plastic frames etc will be going up.

 

[conny]

I'll be keeping an eye on timber then in the hope it comes down a lot. Then, if I've got my wits about me, I'll stock up on various sizes of sawn and sheet. Being semi-retired I'm anticipating a number of 'projects' being suggested to me in the near future.

 

[kingandy2nd]

I had noticed the same with timber. My yardstick is 8 x 4 ft 18mm OSB 3. I bought it at £20 a board in June 2022. By Aug 21 they were £47 a board, and now back to £27!

I see what you mean about manufactured products woody, but I’m also thinking those manufacturers have had a massive mark-up in the last year or two before the energy crisis, so maybe the prices won’t go up unless the manufacturers have got use to those new margins…but you make no profit if you don’t sell anything!

 

[^woody^]

If you consider the various costs involved in either manufacturer or import and then supply, it's possible that the "covid" costs may well subside, but then be replaced or exceeded by the "Ukraine" costs. Or there could be bits of both.

Also, if you pop down to Asda and see how much something like a bag of spaghetti or bottle of flavoured water has increased, literally overnight by as much as 50% not a few pennies and consider what materials or labour goes into making those, then it seems to me that we are in for a rough ride for all but the most basic, locally sourced and unprocessed material.